Transcript Regional Balkan Infrastructure Study - Transport REBIS

Structure of presentation
1. Introduction
2. The Core Network and its status
Discussion
3. Investment programming
Discussion
4. Analysis of sub-sectors
Discussion
Project organisation
Previous projects
 Commission services paper: "Transport and Energy
Infrastructure in South East Europe" (2001)
 TIRS study (2002)
Pan-European corridors
Proposed core road network
Routes and corridors, roads
Propsed core rail network
Routes and corridors, railways
Proposed core seaports
Rijeka
Split
Ploce
Dubrovnik
Bar
Durres
Seaports
Vlore
Airports
 Tirana
 Sarajevo
 Zagreb
 Skopje
 Belgrade
 Banja Luka
 Pristina
 Podgorica
 Dubrovnik
 Nis
 Split
Proposed core road network
Propsed core rail network
Road Geometry
Road condition
Present technical condition, railways
Ongoing initiatives
 Balkan Stability Pact
 Southeast European Co-operation Initiative (SECI)
 EU CARDS programme
 World Bank Trade and Transport Facilitation in
Southeast Europe Programme (TTFSE)
Road border
crossings on
Core Network
and location of
border crossings
which are
presently or
potentially
bottlenecks and
are not already
supported
Rail border
crossings on core
network and
location of
border crossings
which are
presently or
potentially
bottlenecks and
are not already
supported
Projected
road traffic
2006,
moderate
economic
growth
scenario
Projected rail
passenger
traffic 2006,
moderate
economic
growth
scenario
Growth in passenger traffic 2001 - 2025
900%
800%
700%
600%
500%
400%
300%
200%
100%
0%
Air
Rail
Car
Growth in freight traffic 2001 – 2025
600%
500%
400%
300%
200%
100%
0%
Inland waterway
Rail
Truck
The planning process
"European" standards
Road:AGR
 80 - 120 km/h
 min. 7m asphalt
Rail: AGC/AGTC
 Corridor X 160 km/h, double track
 other lines: basic modernisation (100-120 km/h)
Long-term investment requirements:
 Roads: 4 Billion Euro
 Railways: 12 Billion Euro
Location of road investments
Proposed rail modernisation
Short term investment plan
All infrastructure projects on the Core Network for
which action is recommended before end of 2004.
Covers the period 2004 - 2009
Recommended actions may be:
 studies (e.g. feasibility studies)
 design
Projects may be:
 construction
 ongoing
 committed
 new
Project screening
Two phases:

Collection of project data in the region
=> project fiches

Screening of projects
= ranking with multi-criteria model
Output:

Projects ranked according to score
Example of project fiche
Weights of criteria
Criteria-weight
Criterion I:
Economic appraisal
0.50
Criterion II:
Financial viability
0.20
Criterion III:
Environmental effects
0.05
Criterion IV:
Functionality and coherency of the network
0.15
Criterion V:
Readiness of the Authority
0.10
Example of output from screening model
Number of road and rail projects on the Core
Network comprised by the quantitative screening
Highway
Railway
Albania
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Croatia
Serbia and
Montenegro
FYRO
Macedonia
Total
9
12
7
19
11
58
1
7
13
14
8
43
Project costs by corridor/route
Total investment cost (EUR million)
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Road projects
Rail projects
Pre-feasibility studies - 19
Criteria for selection of projects:

Above 70% of maximum score in screening process

Up-to-date feasibility study is not available

An initial assessment of the project is a
precondition for further action

Approval or financing of the project is not secured
Pre-feasibility studies - 19
Focus in pre-feasibility analyses:

Project is compared with a realistic
reference alternative

Change in investment, operating and
maintenance costs of infrastructure

Change in travel time

Change in operating costs of rolling
stock/vehicles and equipment

Change in traffic safety
Location of pre-feasibility studies - Road
Location of pre-feasibility studies - Rail
Basis for Short term Investment Plan
General REBIS policy recommendations:

Maintain present infrastructure - rather than
constructing new links/increase capacity

Concentrate investments on most important
regional connections

Strike a balance between transport modes
National priorities are reflected
Affordable investment level
Reasonable distribution between countries
Results of the screening and pre-feasibility analyses
Total investment costs broken down by project
status (EUR million)
Committed
projects
Ongoing
projects
New projects
Grand Total
Investment cost
828
791
2,074
3,693
Percentage distribution of
investment costs
22%
21%
56%
100%
22
31
79
132
Data
Number of projects
Location of ongoing, committed and new road
and airport projects
Location of ongoing, committed and new
railway and ports projects
Short Term Investment Plan implications

Timing of investment costs 2004-2009

Investments by corridor and route

Investments by project status and transport mode

Investments by country
Investment costs broken down by project status phased
over the implementation period (EUR million)
1,200
Annual investment level (EUR million)
1,000
800
600
400
New projects
200
Ongoing projects
0
Committed projects
2004
2005
2006
2007
Year
2008
2009
Investment costs by transport mode and scope
for all projects (EUR million)
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Airport
Border
Crossing
I.
Waterways
Multimodal
Rail
Upgrading
Road
Sea
port
Rehabilitation/reconstruction
Provision of equipment
Construction
Investment costs by transport mode and scope
for all "New projects" (EUR million)
600
500
400
300
200
100
Upgrading
0
Airport
Border
crossing
Multimodal
Rehabilitation/reconstruction
Rail
Road
Sea
port
Provision of equipment
Construction
Roads and Rail - phased investment costs
broken down by project status (EUR million)
600
Roads
500
300
200
100
350
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Rail
300
Year
250
New projects
Ongoing projects
Committed projects
Million Eur
Million Eur
400
200
150
100
50
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
Year
2008
2009
Investment costs and GDP
Estimated
GDP
Total GDP
Assumed real
growth in period
Estimated investment
costs (mill. EUR)
(2003 -prices)
Investment/
GDP
Year
2003
2004-2009
2004-2009
2004-2009
2004-2009
Unit
Bn EUR
Bn EUR (2003 prices)
Real growth (%)
Bn EUR (2003 prices)
% of BNP
Albania
5.5
40.9
45%
555
1.4%
Bosnia
6.1
49.2
28%
531
1.1%
Croatia
25.3
206.4
27%
950
0.5%
Kosovo*
1.7
14.7
33%
106
0.7%
Macedonia
3.8
39.3
26%
292
0.7%
Serbia & Montenegro
12.3
108.1
32%
1,258
1.2%
Source:
The GDP figures are estimated based on the World Bank's GDP figures for 2001 and projected based on real
growth rates between 3.7% and 6.5% per year. The figure for Kosovo is estimated by IMF who assess the GDP to
be 3 bn Deutsche Mark corresponding to around 1.5 bn EUR in year 2000.
Long Term Investment Programming

Investment planning is an on-going and
continues process

New projects need to be identified and included
in the planning process immediately after 2004

A starting point is REBIS identified projects not
included in the Short Term Investment Plan

A regional monitoring mechanism with access to
technical back-up is a corner stone for a
coherent development of infrastructure of
regional importance
Long term challenges and requirements
Roads:

Major investments in road capacity only after 2010

STIP includes only about 50% of estimated
investment requirements 2004-2015
Long term challenges and requirements
Rail:

Large-scale upgrading of infrastructure to
AGC/AGTC standards is not recommended in the
first few years, where focus should be on business
development

Modernisation should be considered when
rehabilitation of existing lines is planned

STIP includes only about 10% of estimated costs
of upgrading to European standard 2004 -2015
Long term challenges and requirements
Ports and airports:

Long term requirements are difficult to assess in
a future competitive environment where user
charging will be an important source of financing
IWW:

Major investments are needed, especially in the
Danube. Type and level will be determined in
upcoming studies
Management information systems
Infrastructure is an asset which:

needs to be maintained and improved
 to ensure maximum value for money of the
infrastructure
Efficient management consists of a managed series of
works and activities which:

needs to build on up-to-date information on
 conditions and usage
Road management information systems
Status:
 In most countries dataexists, but often in separate,
paper based systems, which are not always
updated regularly
Needs:
 Extension of traffic counting to the entire network
 Updating of data on structures
 Improved bridge management systems
 Computerisation of data before unified systems are
developed
 Improved co-operation between police and road
authorities to obtain better data on accidents in
order to improve road safety
Rail management information systems
Status:

Inventories on conditions of structures and
traffic are mainly paper based
Needs:

Development of computerised systems, which
will facilitate assessment of needs in a more
efficient way
Port management information systems
Status:

Inventories on conditions of structures are mainly
paper based, whereas traffic data more often is
recorded in a computerised system
Needs:

Development of computerised systems, which
will facilitate assessment of needs in a more
efficient way
Airport management information systems
Status:

There are generally no management information
systems in the airports.

Data are kept in a mix of paper and
computerised systems; traffic data is most often
recorded in computerised systems
Needs:

Development of computerised systems, which
will facilitate assessment of needs in a more
efficient way
Inland waterway management
information systems
Status:

Croatia and Serbia have computerised their
data to some extent
Needs:

Especially Serbia needs to develop computerised
systems and to update date on traffic and
conditions, which will facilitate assessment of
needs in a more efficient way