Transcript Slowing growth . . .

The Role of Skills in Productivity
Gains in the Tourism SectorA View from the Private Sector
in St. Lucia
Presentation of Results of Hotel
Survey & Background Paper
By: Theresa Beltramo
Overview of Presentation
Macroeconomic Overview & Role of Tourism
Results of the Hotel Survey
Social Contract Needed- The Way Forward
Main Messages
Slowing growth . . .
Per Capita Incomes (PPP) 1975-2004
40000
Ireland
35000
30000
Singapore
25000
Cyprus
20000
Barbados
15000
Mauritius
Caribbean LAC
10000
5000
0
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
2003
Services main growth driver. . .
Sectoral Contribution to GDP Growth (%)
100%
80%
Services
60%
40%
Industry
20%
Agriculture
0%
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
Source: World Bank (WDI), figures are medians for the Caribbean region
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
Tourism plays key role in economy
Antigua and Barbuda
Dominica
Grenada
St. Kitts and Nevis
St. Lucia
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
T&T Industry
GDP
T&T Economy T&T Industry T&T Economy
GDP
Employment Employment
% of Total
24.9
8.2
8.3
7.9
15.6
10
% of Total
82.1
25.1
27.9
30.1
47.9
34.1
% of Total
34.8
7.7
8.2
9
16.5
9.2
% of Total
95
22.7
26.2
30.3
47.7
30.4
Bahamas
18.6
56
26
Barbados
15.8
52.2
19.8
Cayman Islands
12.8
37.6
18
Cuba
4.4
13.7
3.9
Domincan Republic
8.8
25.5
7.7
Source:(2004) World Tourism & Travel Council
Note: T&T Industry represents Travel and Tourism Industry or direct GDP or employment.
T&T Economy represents Travel and Tourism Economy both direct and Indirect GDP and
Employment calculations.
69.9
58.3
47.4
11.8
22.2
Increasing competition in tourism market
(0-100, 100 shows most competitive country)
Tourism Price Competitiveness Index
100
90
80
70
Caribbean average
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
South Africa
Source: WTTC
Thailand
Indonesia
Dominican
Republic
Barbados
Jamaica
Fiji
Recent High Growth is a
Window of Opportunity…
GDP Growth
Rate (IMF)
2004
2005*
Unemployment Rate
(latest year)
Adult
Youth
Antigua & Barbuda
5.2%
3.8%
4%
13%
Dominica
3.5%
3.1%
17%
56%
Grenada
-3.0%
0.9%
9%
24%
St. Kitts and Nevis
6.4%
4.9%
4%
11%
St. Lucia
4.0%
5.0%
19%
39%
St. Vincent & the Grenadines
4.3%
4.9%
15%
39%
Section II
Macroeconomic Overview & Role of Tourism
Results of the Hotel Survey
Social Contract Needed- The Way Forward
Main Messages
Hoteliers agree that Skills of
workers are not adequate…

There is a clear mismatch between the
skills demanded in the tourism sector and
those supplied from the education system.
Top Skills missing include…
Professional Skills- in
particular
Management and
Chefs Skills
Soft Skills
Entrepreneurship Skills
or Self Initiative
Ability to Learn
Other Feedback from Hoteliers in SL



School curriculum in St. Lucia was seen as ill
suited to meet the labor demands of the tourist
industry.
Of the training institutions in place, the
overarching feedback was the training was too
basic and not synthesized with the hotel sector’s
needs.
Training would be greatly improved if brought up
to international standards and the private sector
endorsed the need for accredited standards.
Some skills training exists…
Totals
Difference
Total Population in Age-Group 12-16
17610
4795
Secondary School Students
12815
Senior Primary School Enrolment
2244
School age cohort not engaged in formal education
2551
CARE Skills Participants
132
NELP (aimed at adults)
790
NSDC- Youth Apprenticeship Program
650
Vieux Fort Technical Institute
112
Sum of Skills Training Available for Youth (CARE, NSDC, and Vieux Fort)
894
Secondary School age cohort not engaged in skills training or secondary school
1657
9.4%
% of Secondary Age Population Not Enrolled in Any Skillls Training or School
Total Enrolment In NELP for
Academic Year 2004-2005
Program
Academic Courses
Cake Decorating
Cate Decorating (int)
Flower Arranging
Information Technology
Information Technology (int)
Garment Construction
Garment Construction (int)
Carpentry
Human Relations
Electrical Installation
Electrical Installation (int)
Plumbing
Refrigeration and Air Conditioning
Navigation and Safety
Music Intermediate
Music Basic
Small Engine Repair
Total Skills Courses Participants
Total
Male
113
4
4
0
28
7
1
1
14
3
22
15
13
11
6
4
6
11
150
263
Female
510
139
69
17
103
51
129
81
6
21
8
0
3
0
0
4
9
0
640
1150
Total
623
143
73
17
131
58
130
82
20
24
30
15
16
11
6
8
15
11
790
1413
Source: Ministry of Education, St. Lucia Statistical Yearbook 2005.
% Male
18
3
5
0
21
12
1
1
70
13
73
100
81
100
100
50
40
100
19
19
Labor Market Mismatch
Location
Size
Average time
it takes to hire
and replace a
manager?
(weeks)
Castries
Castries
Castries
Soufriere
Castries,
Soufriere
All
Hotels
L
S
All
All
8.7
6.3
6.9
6.0
5.0
3.8
4.1
5.4
7.7
5.8
6.3
3.0
How much money the
hotel spent
independently of the
government on training
of employees in 2004?
US Dollars
29,307
6,340
10,516
2,747
S
6.2
4.4
4.7
5,442
6.7
4.5
5.3
8,851
S, L
Average time Average time it
it takes to hire
takes to hire
and replace a and replace an
skilled worker
unskilled
(weeks)
worker (days)
Level of Education Among Hotel Staff
Size
Percentage of
employees that
have graduated
from high school
Percentage of
employees that
have completed
some tertiary
education
Percentage of
employees that have
some training in
tourist related fields,
such as hospitality
management, etc
Castries
L
85%
62%
9%
Castries
S
50%
10%
4%
Soufriere
All
29%
13%
1%
Castries,
Soufriere
43%
10%
3%
S
14%
4%
Location
All Hotels
49%
S, L
Source: World Bank Hotel Survey and Author’s Calculations
Deepening the impact of Tourism
Required inputs
Island as a
destination $$$
Wide variety of
tourism
services:
restaurants,
entertainment,
tours
Enclave, All-Inclusive $$
Unskilled labor and
poor physical
infrastructure
Cruise - $
Few backward
and forward
linkages
Value-added
Quality of inputs
High quality
labor, physical
infrastructure
and security
(destination
management)
Output
Section III.
Macroeconomic Overview & Role of Tourism
Results of the Hotel Survey
Social Contract Needed- The Way Forward
Main Messages
Social contract needed…
Employers Top Five Skills Needed
1. Managers (22%)
2. Information and Computer Technology Professionals (14.6%)
3. Persons with People/Soft Skills (8.1%)
4. Building and Related Workers (6.5%)
5. Hospitality and Tourism Workers (6.5%)
Providers Top Five Skills Needed
1. Educators/Teachers (41.2%)
2. Hospitality Workers (29.4%)
3. Building and Related Workers (29.4%)
4. Doctors (17.6%)
5. Managers (17.6%)
Students Top Five Education and Training Needed
1. Management (31.6%)
2. ICT Training (15.6%)
3. Skills Training/Technical Vocational (15.6%)
4. Nursing (15.8%)
5. Technology (10.5%)
Human Resource Development Needs Assessment Survey UWI
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
St. Vincent
& the
St. Lucia
St. Kitts and
Nevis
Grenada
Dominica
Antigua &
Barbuda
% unemployment
Do youth embrace tourism…
Adult
Youth
If you remember anything,
remember this…
Macroeconomic Overview & Role of Tourism
Results of the Hotel Survey
Social Contract Needed- The Way Forward
Main Messages
Main Messages




Slowing growth per capita
since 1980.
Growth slowdown partially as
a result of low relative
productivity.
Sea and Sand tourism is
reaching its maturation and
the OECS would benefit from
moving to higher end
services
Current high growth & WCC
is an opportunity.





Hoteliers in SL point to a skills
mismatch
Some skills training exists in
SL put is too basic to meet
the hotel sector’s needs and
would benefit from
accreditation on a regional
level.
Skills gained in secondary
school must be relevant to
the world of work.
The rural issue
A social contract is needed
Thank You