Transcript Powerpoint file for Chapter 1 (Introduction)

GGR348/1408:
C-Free Energy Supply
Chapter 1: Introduction
L. D. Danny Harvey
[email protected]
Recent relevant trends
Variation in atmospheric CO2 concentration March 1958-Nov 2014
(from at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii)
410
400
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
390
380
370
360
350
340
330
320
310
300
1955
1965
1975
1985
Year
Source of data: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center
1995
2005
2015
Extracting ice cores (vertical columns)
from the Antarctic ice sheet
Variation in atmospheric CO2 concentration from AD 1000- Nov 2014
400
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
Measured from air bubbles in the Law
ice core (Antarctica)
Measured in air at Mauna Loa
observatory (Hawaii)
350
300
250
1000
1200
1400
1600
Year
Source of data: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center
1800
2000
1983
1980
1977
1974
1971
Year
2013
2010
2007
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
8
1968
10
1965
1962
1959
Annual Industrial CO2 Emission (GtC)
Global industrial CO2 emissions, 1959-2013
12
Cement+Flaring
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
6
4
2
0
Comparison of global industrial and land use
CO2 emissions, 1959-2013
CO2 Emission (GtC/yr)
10
9
Industrial
8
Land Use
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1955
1965
1975
1985
Year
1995
2005
Source: Data from Carbon Dioxide Budget 2014, http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget
2015
Global mean surface temperature variation, Jan 1856Nov 2014
0.6
Temperature Change (oC)
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
1856
1881
1906
1931
1956
1981
2006
Year
Source: HadCRUT4 data from http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/current/download.html
Temperature variations can be inferred from variation in the
width, density and oxygen isotope ratios (O16/O18) of annual
tree rings in trees from appropriate locations
Temperature variations can be inferred from
Oxygen isotope ratios in the annual growth rings of corals
Reconstruction of northern hemisphere or global mean
temperature variation from tree rings and other proxy indicators
0.8
Temperature Deviation (K)
0.6
0.4
0.2
Rutherford 2005
Moberg 2005
Huang 2004
Mann & Jones 2003
Esper 2002
Instrumental
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
Change in mean annual surface temperature (computed from the
trend line) over the period 1901-2012 (from thermometer records).
Source: IPCC 2013, AR5 WG1, Fig. 2.12 (GISS results)
Minimum sea ice extent (occurring in Sept of each
year), 1979-2014
8.5
Extent (million square kilometers)
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
1978
September 2012, 3.41 million km2
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
Year
Source of data: National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, Colorado
2002
2006
2010
2014
Sept 2012
Global mean sea level rise, 1880-2010. About 21 cm SLR occurred
over this time period.
Source: IPCC 2013, AR5, WG1, Fig. 3.13a
Exhibit 1-62
Calculated
individual
contributions to
the global
mean sea level
rise from 1961
to 2008 (left),
and
comparison of
the sum of
individual
contributions
with the
observed sea
level rise
(right)
Source: Church et al (2011, Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 38)
Exhibit 1-59a: Athabasca Glacier, Jasper National Park,
in 1907 and 1998
Exhibit 1-46:
Change in Greenland + Antarctic ice mass, 1992-2011. The rate of ice
loss during the last period 2006-2011 is equivalent to
12 cm/century in terms of SLR.
Source: Shepherd et al. (2012, Science 338, 1183)
Climate Physics Background
• The Earth’s average temperature is determined by the
absorption of solar radiation and the emission of infrared
(IR) radiation. This is because temperatures naturally
adjust to bring the two into balance (to make them equal)
• If absorption of solar radiation exceeds the emission of
IR radiation, there is a net energy gain and temperatures
will increase
• As temperatures increase, the emission of IR radiation
increases – thereby reducing and eventually eliminating
the surplus – that is, establishing a balance between
absorption of solar radiation and emission of IR
radiation, but at a warmer temperature than before.
Climate Physics (continued)
• CO2 and other greenhouse gases absorb IR
radiation (this can be measured in the laboratory)
• This absorption of IR radiation is an example of a
radiative forcing.
• Thus, the increase in their concentrations over the
past 200 years unquestionably has a tendency to
warm the climate by making the emission of IR
radiation to space less than the absorption of solar
radiation, thereby creating an energy surplus
• As temperatures warm in response to the initial
radiative energy surplus, further changes in both
solar and infrared radiation will occur, necessitating
yet further changes in temperature
• These subsequent changes in radiation are referred
to as radiative feedbacks
Climate Physics (continued)
The key radiative feedbacks are:
• The increase in the amount of water vapour (a
greenhouse gas) in the atmosphere as the
climate warms, which acts as a positive
feedback – that is, amplifying the initial warming
• The retreat in the extent of ice and snow as the
climate warms, allowing more absorption of
solar radiation – another positive feedback
• Changes in the amount, location and properties
of clouds, serving as either a negative or positive
feedback (that is, diminishing or adding to the
initial radiative energy surplus).
The eventual global mean warming for a
particular increase in GHGs depends on
• the radiative forcing, and
• the climate sensitivity, which can be defined as the
global mean warming associated with a doubling of
the atmospheric CO2 concentration or its radiative
equivalent.
The climate sensitivity in turn depends on the various
radiative feedback processes, the most important of
which were outlined in the previous slide.
The approximation is made that the climatic response
to a GHG increase other than a CO2 doubling varies
in direct proportion to the total radiative forcing.
Bottom line points:
• There is a very strong body of evidence to
indicate that the climate sensitivity is very likely
to fall between 1.5 C and 4.5 C
• The current concentration of CO2 (400 ppmv) is
a 43% increase from the pre-industrial
concentration of 280 ppmv
• Increases in other GHGs (methane, nitrous
oxide and others) together trap about as much
extra IR radiation as the increase in CO2 alone
• Thus, we have close to the equivalent of a
doubling in CO2 concentration already when all
GHGs are accounted for
Bottom line points continued
• Under BAU scenarios, we could eventually (by AD 2100)
reach the equivalent of 4 times the pre-industrial CO2
concentration or more, that is, two doublings
• For each doubling, we can expect an eventual warming
of 1.5-4.5 C global mean warming (that’s what the
climate sensitivity is), or a total warming of 3.0-9.0 C
• Even 3.0 C warming would have severe impacts
• The warming so far (about 0.8 C) is small because of
temporary partly offsetting cooling effects from pollution,
and because the oceans are slow to warm)
Projected Impacts of Global Warming
that are of concern:
• Widespread collapse of coral reef ecosystems
with 1-2ºC global mean warming
• Possible collapse of the Greenland ice sheet
with as little as 1-2ºC sustained warming, and
almost certainly with 3-4ºC sustained warming
• Likely extinction of 15-30% of terrestrial species
of life on Earth with 2ºC global mean warming by
2050, and 80-90% extinction possible with 5-6ºC
warming by 2100
• Reduced agricultural productivity in some major
food producing regions once local warming
exceeds 1-3ºC
Projected Impacts (continued):
• Severe water stress in regions that are already
short of water
• Potential increase in the severity of hurricanes
• Acidification of the oceans as the oceans absorb
CO2 (this is a geochemical certainty, and is
independent of whatever changes in climate
occur)
Future Industrial CO2
Emissions
C emissions under a typical business-as-usual scenario (upper
line) and as allowed for stabilization at various CO2 concentrations
(the lines with the numbers next to them) (the numbers are the
allowed concentration in ppmv; we are currently at 400 ppmv)
Primary power from fossil fuels under BAU (the 3 lower coloured
regions) and permitted (black lines) with stabilization at 350-750
ppmv CO2 . Even stabilization at 750 ppmv requires major
reductions from BAU emissions
Simplification of the preceding figure
Kaya identity for CO2 emissions:
Emission =
Population (P) x
GDP/person ($/P) x
Energy Intensity (GJ/$) x
Carbon Intensity (kgC/GJ)
Historically,
• GDP/P has been increasing by about 1.6%/yr
averaged over the past few decades
• Energy intensity has been declining by about
1%/yr for the last several decades
Recent demographic projections see the human
population peaking at as low as 7.8 billion in 2050
(20% chance of this value or less) or as high as
10.8 billion in 2085 (20% chance of this value or
more). This is significantly lower than older projections.
Impact on gross world product (global GDP) of combining low
and high population and GDP/P scenarios
400
World GDP (trillion $)
350
300
250
Exponential economic
growth
Decelerating economic
growth
200
150
100
50
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
Year
2080
2100
Figure 1.1b: Impact on world primary power demand of
combining low and high gross world product scenarios (high
population and GDP/P or low population and GDP/P) with slow
(1%/yr) and fast (2%/yr) rates of decrease in energy intensity
(solid and dashed lines, respectively).
Primary Power (TW)
50
High Population &
GDP growth
40
30
20
10
Low Population,
Low GDP Growth
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
Year
2080
2100
Figure 1.2a CO2 Emissions
30
High pop,
high GDP/P growth,
1%/yr reduction in
energy intensity
CO2 Emission (GtC/yr)
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
20
Scenario 3
Energy
Intensity
Difference
Scenario 4
10
High pop,
high GDP/P growth,
2%/yr reduction in
energy intensity
C-Free
Power
Difference
Pop & GDP/P Difference
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
Year
2080
2100
Figure 1.2b CO2 Emissions
30
CO2 Emission (GtC/yr)
Scenario 1
Scenario 2a
20
Scenario 3a
Population
& GDP/P
Difference
Scenario 4
10
C-Free Difference
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
Year
Energy
Intensity
Difference
2080
2100
Another way to attack this problem is to work out (using
a model of the global carbon cycle) the fossil fuel
emissions that are permitted at various times in the
future if we are to stabilize atmospheric CO2 at 450
ppmv. From that we can work out the primary power that
can be supplied from fossil fuels (without exceeding the
allowed emissions). The difference between the global
primary power demand and that permitted from fossil
fuels gives the required C-free power supply. The lower
the future human population and GDP/P, and the faster
the rate of reduction in energy intensity, the smaller the
total future power demand and so the smaller the
required C-free power supply.
Figure 1.3b Carbon-free power required in 2050 in
limiting atmospheric CO2 to 450 ppmv
Required C-Free Primary Power (TW)
25
Required C-Free Primary
Power, High Population
and GDP/P scenario
20
Global Primary Power
Supply in 2005
15
10
Required C-Free Primary
Power, Low Population
and GDP/P scenario
5
Global C-Free Power in 2005
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Rate of Reduction of Energy Intensity (%/year)
The key conclusion of Volume 1 is that, with
application of all known and foreseeable options to
reduce energy use, and taking into account the
large regional differences in present day per capita
energy use and thus in prospects for the future
growth in energy demand, it is possible to achieve
an average rate of reduction in the primary energy
intensity of 2.7%/yr between 2005 and 2050. From
the previous slide, this puts us in the region where
the required new C-free power supply by 2050 is
about 2-7 TW (2000-7000 GW), depending on the
population and growth in average GDP/P
The C-free energy sources to be
considered in Volume 2 are
•
•
•
•
•
•
Solar energy
Wind energy
Biomass energy
Geothermal, hydro-electric and oceanic energy
Nuclear energy
Fossil fuels with capture and burial of CO2
Growth in Photovoltaic (PV) capacity, 2004-2014
Installed Capacity (GWp-AC)
180
160
140
120
100
Rest of World
USA
China
Japan
Rest of Europe
Italy
Spain
Germany
80
60
40
20
0
2004
2006
2008
Year
2010
2012
2014
Abandoned and bankrupt golf course in Japan
transformed into solar farm
Source: https://www.facebook.com/CollectiveEvolutionPage/posts/10153466122708908
Central tower concentrating solar thermal powerplant
(CSTP) in California
Source: US CSP (2002) Status of Major Project Opportunities, presentation at the 2002 Berlin Solar Paces CSP Conference
Growth in concentrating solar thermal power
capacity, 2006-2014
5000
Installed Capacity (MW)
4000
3000
Other
Spain
US
2000
1000
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year
2011
2012
2013
2014
Figure 2.48 Integrated passive evacuated-tube
collector and storage tank in China
Source: Morrison et al (2004, Solar Energy 76, 135-140, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/0038092X)
Installation of flat-plate solar thermal collectors in Europe
Source: www.socool-inc.com
Growth in solar water heating panel area, 1999-2013
600
Installed Area (millions m2)
Rest of World
500
Australia
Brazil
Japan
400
Germany
Turkey
US
300
China
200
100
0
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Year
2009
2011
2013
Growth in global capacity to generate
electricity from wind, 1996-2013
400
350
Capacity (GW)
300
250
Other
China
India
US
Other European
Spain
Germany
200
150
100
50
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Year
Source: Global Wind Energy Council, annual update reports
2008
2010
2012
2014
Growth in offshore wind capacity (MW) and rate of
installation (MY/yr), 2005-2014
10000
2000
Cumulative capacity
Annual installation
1500
6000
1000
4000
500
2000
0
2000
2005
2010
Year
0
2015
Annual installation (MW/yr)
Installed capacity (MW)
8000
Location and layout of the 576-MW Gwynt y Mor offshore
wind farm, under construction in 2015
Source: Rodrigues et al (2015, Renew. Sust. Energy Rev. 49:1114-1135)
Wind turbine progression
• Onshore, up to 3 MW
• Offshore, sitting on the seabed, 2-5 MW
• Offshore, floating, 3-7 MW
A floating wind turbine prototype.
Source: The Guradian, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jun/23/drifting-off-the-coast-of-portugal-thefrontrunner-in-the-global-race-for-floating-windfarms?CMP=twt_gu
Exhibit 9-39b: A different floating turbine concept
Source: The Guradian, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jun/23/drifting-off-the-coast-of-portugal-thefrontrunner-in-the-global-race-for-floating-windfarms?CMP=twt_gu
A network of floating offshore wind farms proposed for the North Sea
From C. Macilwain (2010, ‘Supergrid’, Nature 468, 624-625)
Fukushima floating wind turbine platform
Source: GWEC – Annual Market Update 2014
7-MW floating wind turbines under construction near
Fukushima, Japan, June 2015
Source: http://environews.tv/world-news/worlds-largest-offshore-wind-turbine-comes-online-near-fukushim
0.0
Source: Clean Energy Canada (2015)
Nov 2014
May 2014
Nov 2013
May 2013
Nov 2012
May 2012
Nov 2011
May 2011
Nov 2010
May 2010
Nov 2009
May 2009
Module Cost (2014 USD/Wp)
Trend in average PV module costs in the US
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
Installed cost of residential PV systems in Germany and
the US (and the common module+inverter cost)
Source: Seel et al. (2014, Energy Policy 69:216-226)
Electricity generating capacity at end of 2014
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Hydro: 1712 GW
Wind: 370 GW
Solar PV: 177 GW
Biopower: 93 GW
Geothermal: 12. 8 GW
CSTP: 4.4 GW
Total excluding hydro: 647 GW
Global capacity of all types: about 5000
GW
Atikokan powerplant in Ontario, formerly powered by coal,
now 100% biomass-powered
Source: http://www.triplepundit.com/2015/01/photo-essay-look-inside-ontario-canadas-coal-biomass-pow
plant-conversion/
Estimated breakdown of global electricity generation in 2014
Source: Renewables 2015 Global Status Report
Global New Investment in Renewable Power and
Fuels
Source: Renewables 2015 Global Status Report
Global Renewable Energy Investment in 2014 by
Technology