Transcript Impact - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Challenges for international
agricultural research
Sirkka Immonen
24 May, 2012
La Sapienza University
Structure of presentation
International agricultural research:
 Public research for development, the CGIAR
 Demand-led research; forecasting future needs
 Major challenges for agricultural research
 Characteristics of research
 Impact pathways
 Results and impact
International Agricultural Research for
Development
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Institutions
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Centers of the Consultative Group on International
Agricultural Research (CGIAR)
Others conduct international research with
development aims: several universities, large national
programs, such as French, Australian, Dutch,
Brazilian
In partnership with:
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National and regional research systems
Development agencies
Non governmental organizations
International Agricultural Research for
Development
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Research with a mission
Public research, addresses problems that
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apply across borders
are public goods
national systems cannot address
private sector does not address
Examples:
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plant breeding for tropical and poor regions
research on natural resources
research on livestock and pastures
research to support policy formulation
Consultative Group on International
Agricultural Research
System of Centers, their partners and donors
Objectives (relevant for the Millennium Development Goals) :
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Reducing rural poverty
Increasing food security
Improving
nutrition
and health
Sustainable
use of natural
resources
Gender equality
underlines objectives
Photo by John Ocambo (CIAT)
CGIAR Research Centers
IPGRI=Bioversity International
Research for development
Responds to demand
Funding:

Governments, foundations, private sector,
development agencies
Beneficiaries:
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Developing countries: national research,
farmers, consumers, rural and urban poor
International research community
What are CGIAR Centers good at?
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High quality research for problems on the ground
Multidisciplinary research
Located in developing countries with a network of
research locations
Bringing partners together from best universities and
national programs in poorest countries
Honest brokers, generates
free public goods
Holders of world’s largest
genetic resources collections
Photo by Neil Palmer (CIAT)
How to decide what research?
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International public goods
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Where there is comparative advantage
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Can be used without exhausting them
Some one’s use is not away from another
Applicable across borders
Universities do basic science
Private sector chooses market opportunities
National institutions have national interests
Where problems can be addressed through
agricultural research
Forecasting future for agriculture
World Agriculture Development report 2008
 Agriculture is a fundamental instrument for
sustainable development and poverty reduction
 In agriculture-based countries (Africa) agriculture is
the basis for economic growth
 Agriculture contributes to development; it provides
(i) economic activity (ii) livelihood for ~86% of rural
people (iii) environmental services
 Heterogeneity defines the rural world
 Issues: land, water, education, health
Characteristics of three country types
Agriculturebased
countries
Transforming
countries
Rural populations (million), 2005
417
2220
225
Share of population rural (%), 2005
68
63
26
GDP per capita (2000 USD), 2005
379
1068
3489
Share of agriculture in GDP (%), 2005
29
13
6
Annual agricultural growth, 19932005 (%)
4
2.9
2.2
Annual non-agricultural GDP growth,
1993-2005 (%)
3.5
7
2.7
Number of rural poor (millions), 2002
170
583
32
Rural poverty rate, 2002 (%)
51
28
13
Source: The World Bank, 2008 World Development Report
Urbanized
countries
Forecasting future for agriculture
UK government foresight report 2010
A. Balancing future demand and supply sustainably
B. Ensuring that there is adequate stability in
food prices
C. Achieving global access to food and ending hunger
D. Managing the contribution of the food system to the
mitigation of climate change.
E. Maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services
while feeding the world
The difficult equations
Estimated long term trends:
 population increase (9 billion by 2050)
 global food demand will double by 2050
 rural poverty increasing in SSA and South Asia
(reduced in East Asia and Pacific)
 competition for agricultural land (biofuels)
 expansion is threat
to biodiversity
 agriculture has
large environmental
footprint
Major challenges for AR4D
POVERTY
 Poverty pockets in sub-Saharan Africa
and South Asia
 Impact through better productivity of
crops, animals, fish and forestry
products, value chains
 Impact through better market access,
credit, inputs, and policies
 In agricultural communities
empowerment, risk management and
innovation is needed
 Income from agriculture for producers,
land-less laborers and other groups
Major challenges for AR4D
FOOD SECURITY
 ~950 million people under
nourished (2010)
 27-28 percent of children in
developing countries
underweight
or stunted
 Impact through more agricultural
product of crops, animals and fish
 Price fluctuations of agricultural commodities is a
challenge
 Locally diversity in agricultural enterprises and products
buffers against shocks
Major challenges for AR4D
HEALTH & NUTRITION
 Calories
 Micronutrient malnutrition
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Empowerment of women
Access to nutritious diets
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vitamin A, zinc, iron etc.
animal foods, pulses, fruits and vegetables
Children’s nutritional status
Biofortified staple foods
Photo by E. Gotor (Bioversity International)
Major challenges for AR4D
ENVIRONMETAL THREATS
 Ecosystem changes due to dramatic increase in
need for food, water, timber, fuel and fire wood
 Agriculture competes for scarce water resources
 Soil degradation and erosion, salinisation
 Encroachment to new areas (wet lands, tropical
forests)
 Carbon emissions
 Loss of biodiversity
 Agrochemical use
Major challenges for AR4D
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY
 Low national investments on agriculture, science
and technology
 Poor institutions (research, extension, education)
 Insufficient national research capacity
 High turn-over
 Limited succession planning
Photo AWARD Fellowships Program
Research capacity in developing countries
Developing Country
Scientist Numbers
China
80,000
India (2003)
16,700
SSA (2008)
12,100
Brazil (2006)
5,400
Source: ASTI and: Chen, K. Z., and Y. Zhang. 2010.
Investment in agriculture R&D is low
Total public agricultural R&D expenditures by region
1981 and 2000 (% GDP)
Region
1981
2000
Sub-Saharan Africa
0.84
0.72
Asia & Pacific
0.36
0.41
China
0.41
0.4
India
0.18
0.34
West Asia and North Africa
0.61
0.66
Latin America & Caribbean
0.88
1.15
Brazil
1.15
1.81
Developing countries
0.52
0.53
Developed countries
1.41
2.36
Source: The World Bank; 2008 World Development Report
New opportunities
New science and technology
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life sciences (genomics)
geographic information
systems
informatics and communication
technology
New organization
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multi-disciplinary and integrated research
innovation systems
participatory research
donor harmonization
Photo by ICARDA
Characteristics of research
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Research needs to discover new things and
explore the unexplored
Research is risky and unpredictable
Unexpected results and failures are valuable
Needs to be transparent
Thrives from critique
Scientific discoveries lead to innovation and
adaptation
Knowledge Flows in Agriculture
Scientists
(formal research)
2
International Research
Centers and System
flow
1
National & State
Research Systems
State National Regional International Global
Knowledge flow
3
National/State/Local
•Extension Services
•Non-governmental
organizations
Knowledge
Local
Activities
4
International Private
Voluntary Organizations*
Farmers
Source: Dana Dalrumple, USAID
(indigenous knowledge, informal research)
Global
Activities
Characteristics of ag research: Long lag times
Adoption rate
Outcome
measured here
reflects
performance...
back
then!
0
30
Upstream research
conduct
Source: D. Raitzer, IRRI, 2011
On farm
Release
evaluation
Time (years)
Characteristics of ag research: Long and indirect causal chains
(Adapted from D. Raitzer, IRRI, 2011)
Development project 3-5 years, local impact
Activity
(building
a bridge)
Outcome
(reduction
in travel
time from
use of
bridge)
Output (a
bridge)
Impact
(higher
incomes
from better
market
prices)
Genetic improvement 20-30 years
Activity
(identific
ation of a
gene)
Output
(Markers)
Outcome
(use of
markers
by
NARS)
Output
(NARS
varieties)
Outcome
(national
seed
producti
on)
Outcome
(farmer
adoption)
Outcome
(reduced
producti
on risk)
Outcome
(intensifi
ed
manage
ment)
Impact
(higher
income for
poor
producers)
Lower
food
prices
for the
poor
Resource management research 10-20 years
Activity
(develop
ment of
principle
s for
SSNM)
Outcom
e
(NARS
validati
on)
Activity
(develop
ment of
decision
support
tools)
Outcome
(on farm
testing
by
partners)
Outcome
(embodi
ment in
mobile
phone
services)
Outcome
(changes
to
extensio
n system
policy)
Output
(recomm
endation
s for
specific
farms)
Outcome
(change
in
fertilizer
manage
ment on
farm)
Outcome
(higher
fert use
efficienc
y)
Impact
(higher
incom
e for
poor
produc
ers)
Lower
food
prices
for the
poor
Program
Scale
Research monitoring on impact pathway
Impact
assessment
Theme
Studies that
track the scale
of outcome
(effect size *
scale)
Monitoring
progress &
performance
Product
evaluation
Refined
theory of
change
Product
Pilot / Small
Global
Priority assessment
Impact evaluation
studies that
measure the effect
size
Time
Input
Source: D. Raitzer, IRRI, 2011
Output
Outcome
Impact
Impact pathway–Aquatic agriculture systems
Source: CGIAR Research Program 1.3 “Aquatic Agriculture Systems”
Impact pathway – Dryland cereal program
Strategic
objectives
Outputs
Research
outcomes
Targeting R4D
opportunities
Research priority
setting
NARS use results
for prioritization
Genetic resources
& tools
Variety and hybrid
development
Sustainable crop
management
Accelerating
adoption
Post harvest,
market access
Germplasm,
genes, methods
Germplasm etc
used by breeders
Varieties, hybrid
with desired traits
Formal and
informal sees
systems
Crop/pest mngt
technologies
Delivery of crop
and pest mngt
options
Effective seed and
input delivery
Value added
products, processes
Improved market
access
Product design and demand
Improved
knowledge flow
among partners
Value added
products piloted
Constraints for enhanced use
Development
outcomes
Appropriate
technologies
Swift variety turnover
Less poverty
Farmers benefit
from new cultivars
Saving water and
nutrients, reduced
pest damage
soil health
Opportunities to
market value added
products
Improved value
chains, knowledge
platforms
Increased food
security
Improved health
and nutrition
Increased system
resilience &
sustainability
Constraints for scale-out
Enabling environment – institutions, policies, governance, infrastructure
Source: Adapted from CGIAR Research Program 3.6 “Dryland cereals”
Impacts
Results from agricultural research
Historic impact: Green Revolution
Nobel Peace Prize 1970
to Normal Borlaug
Results from agricultural research
Improved varieties (examples in Africa)
 Cassava, fastest growing food staple in Africa
 The New Rice for Africa (NERICA)
 Beans, ~10 million farmers, mostly women, grow
new bean varieties developed through
participatory breeding
Biological control of pests:
 parasitic wasp to control
cassava mealy bug in Africa
Soil management:
 zero tillage (in LAC, Asia); legumes to improve
soil fertility (Africa)
Photo by FAO Regional Vegetable IPM Programme
Cases of successful research in CGIAR
International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
 Research to confirm high and low amylase in
cassava roots
 Discovery of amylase-free mutant
 Interest for industrial use of starch
 Public-private partnership
 Contract farming cassava
as cash crop
 Income opportunities
for smallfarmers
Photo by Thomas Sankara
Cases of successful research in CGIAR
International Potato Institute
 Research and breeding to increase Vit A content in
sweetpotato (orange flesh)
 Research to explore farmers willingness to pay for
high quality planting materials
 Incentives for privatevine
multipliers
 Benefits to vine producers,
crop producers

Health benefits to consumers
Photo by ILRI
Cases of successful research in CGIAR
International Rice Research Institute
 Alternate wetting and drying technology
 Research on AWD
 water and nutrient
interactions
 optimizing ADW scenarios
 role of policies and
infrastructure
 participatory testing, training
 15-30% irrigation water saved
 Large scale diffusion of AWD
Photo by IPSWAR
Cases of successful research in CGIAR
Center for International Forestry Research
 Research on forest certification for sustainable
management
 Criteria and indicators template with
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principles and criteria on policy, ecology, social
conditions, biodiversity and production
Adaptation to local contexts
1999 10 million ha forests certified worldwide
2006 79 million ha – most using the C&I
standards
Cases of successful research in CGIAR
World Agroforestry Center
 Research for replenishing soil fertility
 Tree fallows based on fast growing “fertilizer” trees
 On-farm testing and
dissemination
 Benefits:
 Improved food security
(maize-based systems)
 Better soil health
 More fuel
 Increased carbon sequestration
Photo by World Agroforestry Center