Transcript Political Socialization and Public Opinion

Public Opinion and
Political Socialization
Three Broad Classes
• Inputs
• Outputs
– Culture
– Information
– Public Opinion
– Policies
– Conditions
– Outcomes
• Institutions
– Branches of Government
– Parties/Interest Groups
– Rules of the game
Inputs
Institutions
Policies
Public Opinion
What the public thinks about a particular
issue or set of issues at some point in
time.
V.O Key- any attitudes the public has that
the government would be wise to heed
Opinions held by the public that may have
an impact on the political process
Public Opinion
Attitudes towards specific issues/policies

E.g. War in Iraq, social security reform
Attitudes about state of the nation

E.g. Important problems, state of the economy
Attitudes towards officeholders

Presidential approval
Attitudes towards the government
Attitudes towards specific groups
Public Opinion
Individual and collective property
2 key elements
 Attitude direction
 Salience/importance
A function of both long and short term
factors
Ideology
Fairly consistent set of ideas
Interrelation between more specific attitudes
Only Some people think “ideologically”


More knowledgeable
More involved
Liberal-Conservative
~20% Conservative
~30% Liberal
~50% Moderate
Ideology
What distinguishes ideology?
Attitude towards government
intervention/individual liberty
Attitude towards change/past
Attitudes towards social conventions?
Public Opinion
Stable/Malleable?
The wonder is that they (the people) so
seldom err as they do; beset as they
continually are by the wiles of parasites
and sycophants, by the snares of the
ambitious, the avaricious, the desperate”

Hamilton Federalist 71
Madison and demagogues
Evidence for some of each
Political Socialization
Learning process by which people acquire
their political ideas and values
Ecology->Culture->Socialization>Personality->Behavior (Triandis 1994)
Social Learning Theory
American Political Culture(s)
Some commonalities
Elazar
3 Sub Cultures



Individualistic
Moralistic
Traditionalistic
Agents of Political Socialization
The Family
Education
Race
Religion
Class
Peer groups
Long term influence
Values
Somewhat corrupted term
Equality
Tolerance
Freedom
Protestant work ethic/deservingness
Meritocracy
Which values in which situations?
What Moves Public Opinion?
Real world events (wars, economic
factors, various salient issues)
Elite Discussion
Politics (Campaigns, speeches, etc)
The Media
Public opinion itself
Real World Events
Many Factors
influence presidential
Approval
Here- Uptick around
start of war
As war progresses,
decreased support.
Elite Discourse
Can Move Public Opinion
Only effective when elites have one
message
When Multiple Messages, citizens fall
back to original opinions
Elite Discourse
E.g. Vietnam
Early- Most Elites Support War


More Media exposure-> More support
Mainstreaming
Late- Divided Elite Opinion
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Some Hawks, some Doves
Opinion Depends on previous
Polarization
Public Opinion Itself
Public opinion widely reported
May cause people to change mind


Bandwagon effect
Reconsider reasons
Example- Health care 1994
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Large majority of Americans satisfied with
own healthcare
Large majority think most people get bad care
Measuring Public Opinion
Polling
Telephone Surveys
Relatively Small Samples
Random Assignment
Margin of error
Types of Polls
Telephone
In Person
Exit Poll
Tracking Poll
Shortcomings of Polls
Accuracy?
Social Desirability
Question wording
Declining Response rates
The Ugly- Literary Digest Poll
1936 Election
Over 1 Million Respondents
Predicts Alf Landon Win
Problem- Selecting Participants
Problem- Low response rate
Problem- Too far in advance of election
Polling and Democracy
Verba- Allows voices to be heard that
would not otherwise
Allows greater detail on wishes of public
than elections would.
Dryzek- Empowers status quo
Does not allow spontaneous expression of
opinion
The Uses Of Polls
The media
Election Forecasting
By the public
By politicians


To inform policy
To sell policy
By Interest groups
Public Opinion and
Representation
Large shifts in opinion -> changes in policy
District level Congruence in some policy
domains

Strongest in states with referendum
Public Opinion and
Representation
Can reign in lobbyists
When is public opinion influential?
When it sends a clear message
When it moves dramatically
When Issue is Salient
Limits
Not all issues salient
Public opinion shifts
Public Opinion and Elections
Surveys allow for forecasting
Can enable strategic voting
Large impact on fundraising
Horse race coverage
Presidential Approval
“Do you generally approve of the way
________ is handling his job as
president?”
Important resource
Increased Bargaining Power
More successful with congress
Success brings success
Presidential Approval
Figure 1: Presidential Honesty and Job Approval
1993-1999
80
Percent Yes
Character vs.
Competence
The case of Bill
Clinton
The case of Jimmy
Carter
Competence trumps
60
Job Approval
40
Honest and
Trustw orthy
20
0
1
2
3
4
Year
5
6
7
Sources of Approval (or lack
thereof)
The economy

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Both current performance and expectations
Economy as a whole more important than personal
Presidential “drama”
War/foreign policy
Media Coverage
Priming

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Focusing attention on particular areas
Can help or hurt overall approval
Political Trust
Most of the time, can you trust government
to do the right thing?
Trend- Generally decreasing
Similar trend for other institutions as well
Sources?
Policy Dissatisfaction
Increasing gap between promises/results
Political Scandal/Media
Political Trust
Consequences
Decreased Turnout?
Electoral Choice

Benefits 3rd party candidates and challengers
Stability
Tolerance
A willingness to tolerate the presence of
ideas that you do not agree with
Stouffer 1955
80-90% of respondents support abstract
liberties
30-35% support applications of those
liberties
The more educated more likely to be
tolerant
Tolerance
More recent work
Gap between abstract and applied
Gap between educated and not?
Different groups-> different results
When allowed to pick groups they don’t
like, more educated nearly as intolerant
Americans not much more tolerant than in
the 50s?