Transcript South Mediterranean Region

2nd ET 2050 meeting
Brussels, March 19-20 2012
Transnational Region Reports
South Mediterranean Region
(Italy, Slovenia, Libya, and Egypt)
Polimi RU
Contents
Regional level: NUTS0
Source: Politecnico di Milano,
2012
© EuroGeographics Association
for administrative boundaries
Slovenia
Italy
Italy
Italy
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya
Politecnico di Milano,
Project ET2050, 2012
This map does not
necessarily reflect the
opinion of the ESPON
Monitoring Committee
Egypt
1. Italy
1. Strengths
2. Weaknesses
2. Slovenia
1. Strengths
2. Weaknesses
3. Libya
1. Strengths
2. Weaknesses
4. Egypt
1. Strengths
2. Weaknesses
Italy: Strengths
1. Founding member of the EU (Rome Treaty signed in 1957)
2. Diversified and rich economy; strong manufacturing sector (mainly
SMEs); rich and high-quality agricultural sector; some notable
advanced services industries.
3. Some strong high-tech (e.g., machinery) and high-profit (e.g.,
fashion, Made in Italy, design) exports
4. Relevant policies recently decided and mostly already enacted
against
1. Public debt/deficit
2. Public expenditure profligacy
3. Excessive labour regulation.
Reduced international pressure on sovereign debt
Italy: Weaknesses
1. Stagnating growth pattern since 1992: pc GDP falling from 82% of
the US production, to a current value of 67%
2. Ageing population: Italy has the second largest old-age dependency
ratio worldwide. Need to address this by continuous adjustments of the
pension system
3. Massive immigration: total share of foreign-born dwellers will
increase from 7.54% in 2011 to 22.97% in 2065
4. Relative political instability (ruling governments have lasted on
average 0.9 years each since 1948)
5. Consistent interest payments on outstanding debt  constraints on
growth-enhancing measures. Latest official debt/GDP ratio: 119%.
6. Relevant internal divisions – Northern and Central regions earning
more, and often growing faster, than Southern ones
Slovenia: Strengths
1. Steady economic growth in the last two decades
2. Moderate urbanisation processes, with more than three fifths of the
Country covered with forests, and about 14 per cent of the land
destined to permanent grassland
3. Sustainable public finances, moderate public expenditure,
reasonable . Debt/GDP ratio (currently around 35 per cent).
4. Large (and increasing!) share of manufacturing in the Country’s
production (currently around 30 per cent of total value added)
5. Previously hosting plants relocated from EU15 countries, currently the
reverse process is taking place, with Slovenian companies offshoring their production to look for cheaper labour
6. Potential challenge: : stabilising the current trade pattern, and
expanding skills-intensive production
Slovenia: Weaknesses
1. Ageing population: need to revision of current pension schemes
2. Relevant rural/urban dichotomy
3. Non-negligible spatial imbalances: the richest NUTS3 region
produces about twice as much as the poorest
4. Ongoing trends of deforestation and diminishing availability of
agricultural land
5. Risk: Sustainability of the development process in terms of the
environment and future urbanisation processes
Libya: Strengths
1. Massive wealth of natural resources (mostly oil and gas) leading
to...
2. A very good positioning in terms of per capita GDP and HDI
(highest HDI in Africa and fourth highest per capita GDP in PPP in
Africa, behind Seychelles, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon)
3. Remarkable public financial stability (very low debt/GDP ratio ),
mostly spurred by oil revenues
4. Availability of labour force, mostly driven by remarkable population
growth rates (averaging 3.5 per cent per year between 1950 and 2010)
and net inward migration
Libya: Weaknesses
1. Political instability (recent upsurge leading to the fall of Qhaddafi)
2. Relevant internal divisions:
1. Political - The Country appears politically divided in competing
tribes
2. Spatial – 84 per cent of total population lives in coastal areas, with
the inner territories being mostly barren
3. Regional – Tripolitania, Fezzan and Cyrenaica often competing for
the access to natural resources (mostly located in the latter)
3. Heavy dependence of the economy on oil revenues: more than half
its GDP was produced in the extraction sector
4. As a result, Libya’s economy heavily depends on external demand
5. Industrial composition highly concentrated: 2/3 of total GDP
produced in natural resources. However, 17% of labour force is
still employed in agriculture (with very low productivity levels)
Egypt: Strengths
1. Favourable position w.r.t. international trade patterns: Suez canal,
possible key of trade between EU and Middle East countries
2. Availability of labour force: from WWII to today, its total population
almost quadrupled to about 80,000,000 inhabitants, to a large extent in
the young and working age class
3. Improving life conditions in many respects (e.g., life expectancy,
infant mortality rates, emigration rates)
4. Convergence with respect to EU and US standards is slow but
steady
Egypt: Weaknesses
1. Limited availability of arable land: up to 97 per cent of total Country
surface is barren.  exposure to increasing world temperatures and
further desertification
2. Political instability: recent political upsurge leading to the
overthrowing of Hosni Mubarak. Risk of future political backwardness
(major influence of Muslim pseudo-fundamentalist groups like the
Muslim Brotherhood)
3. Labour force still relevantly illiterate (with a non-negligible adverse
gap female-male: 37% vs. 22% according to the 2006 pop. census))
4. Major spatial imbalances, mostly driven by usable land availability:
98 per cent of total Egypt population lives in just 3 per cent of the total
Country territory high population density (2,755.2 inhabitants per
square kilometers if calculated per unit of arable land!)