Transcript Trends in self-employment (Powerpoint presentation 883Kb)

Trends in self-employment
Nick Palmer, Labour Market Statistics
ONS Economic Forum
10 July 2014
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Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
Contents
1. Summary of the recent growth in self-employment
– based on headline statistics as published
2. Address some questions and perceptions
- using supplementary data from the Labour Force
Survey
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Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
Questions related to recent growth in self-employment :
• Post-recession effects or longer-term structural effects ?
• Is it in jobs that drive economic growth ?
• How much of it is part-time/limited hours, (and so low income) ?
• Are people just taking up self-employment in the absence of other
opportunities,
• or is this a new generation of young entrepreneurs ?
• To what extent is it more people taking up self-employment and to
what extent is it people staying self-employed longer (inflows vs
outflows) ?
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Feb-Apr 2014
Dec-Feb 2014
Oct-Dec 2013
Aug-Oct 2013
Jun-Aug 2013
Apr-Jun 2013
Feb-Apr 2013
Dec-Feb 2013
Oct-Dec 2012
Aug-Oct 2012
Jun-Aug 2012
Apr-Jun 2012
Feb-Apr 2012
Dec-Feb 2012
Oct-Dec 2011
Employees
Aug-Oct 2011
Jun-Aug 2011
Apr-Jun 2011
Feb-Apr 2011
Dec-Feb 2011
Oct-Dec 2010
Aug-Oct 2010
Jun-Aug 2010
Apr-Jun 2010
25,900
Feb-Apr 2010
Dec-Feb 2010
Oct-Dec 2009
Aug-Oct 2009
Jun-Aug 2009
Apr-Jun 2009
Feb-Apr 2009
Dec-Feb 2009
Oct-Dec 2008
Aug-Oct 2008
Jun-Aug 2008
Apr-Jun 2008
Feb-Apr 2008
Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
Employment: employees compared with self-employed (000s)
Self employed
4,600
25,700
4,400
25,500
4,200
25,300
4,000
25,100
3,800
24,900
3,600
24,700
3,400
24,500
3,200
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Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
Employees and self-employed: changes since Q1 2008 (thousands)
1,000
800
600
400
Selfemployed
200
Employees
etc
0
-200
Total
employment
-400
-600
-800
2014 Q1
2013 Q4
2013 Q3
2013 Q2
2013 Q1
2012 Q4
2012 Q3
2012 Q2
2012 Q1
2011 Q4
2011 Q3
2011 Q2
2011 Q1
2010 Q4
2010 Q3
2010 Q2
2010 Q1
2009 Q4
2009 Q3
2009 Q2
2009 Q1
2008 Q4
2008 Q3
2008 Q2
-1,000
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Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
Self-employed by industry (LFS), thousands
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Construction
Professional, scientific & technical activities
Other services
Wholesale, retail & repair of motor vehicles
Administrative & support services
Human health & social work activities
Transport & storage
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining, …
Jan-Mar 2014
Jan-Mar 2013
Education
Manufacturing
Information & communication
Accommodation and food services
Financial & insurance activities
Real estate activities
Public admin & defence; social security
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Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
Self-employed by industry (LFS), thousands
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
Construction
Professional, scientific & technical activities
Other services
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining, energy & water
Education
Wholesale, retail & repair of motor vehicles
Change Q1 2013
to Q1 2014
Administrative & support services
Financial & insurance activities
Transport & storage
Real estate activities
Change Q1 2008
to Q1 2013
Human health & social work activities
Public admin & defence; social security
Manufacturing
Accommodation and food services
Information & communication
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Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
Self-employed by main occupation group (thousands)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Professionals
Craft and related trades workers
Managers
Service and sales workers
Technicians and associate professionals
2014Q1
2013Q1
Elementary occupations
Plant and machine operators, and
assemblers
Skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery
workers
Clerical support workers
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Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
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Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
Employees and Self-employed: age distributions (%), Jan-Mar 2014
Employees
Self-Employed
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
16-24
25-34
35-49
50-64
65+ 10
Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
Self-employed: age distributions (%), Jan-Mar 2008 and Jan-Mar 2014
2008
2014
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
16-24
25-34
35-49
50-64
65+ 11
Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
Employees: age distributions (%), Jan-Mar 2008 and Jan-Mar 2014
2008
2014
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
16-24
25-34
35-49
50-64
65+12
Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
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Employees and Self-employed by length of time with current employer/selfemployed, % distribution, Jan-Mar 2014
Employees
Self-employed
25
20
15
10
5
0
Less than 3
months
3 months but 6 months but 1 year but less 2 years but
less than 6
less than 12
than 2
less than 5
5 years but
less than 10
10 years but
less than 20
20 years or
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more
Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
Self-employed by length of time self-employed, thousands
1,200
Jan-Mar 2012
Jan-Mar 2013
Jan-Mar 2014
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Less than 3
months
3 months but 6 months but 1 year but less 2 years but
less than 6 less than 12
than 2
less than 5
5 years but
less than 10
10 years but
less than 20
20 years or
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Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
Usual weekly hours: % distribution,
self-employed compared with employees, Jan-Mar 2014
60%
Employees
Self-employed
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Less than 6 Hours
6 up to 15 hours
16 up to 30 hours
31 up to 45 hours
Over 45 hours
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Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
Usual weekly hours: self-employed
1,800
1,600
31 up to 45
hours
1,400
Over 45 hours
1,200
1,000
16 up to 30
hours
800
600
6 up to 15
hours
400
200
0
Jan-Mar 2007 Jan-Mar 2008 Jan-Mar 2009 Jan-Mar 2010 Jan-Mar 2011 Jan-Mar 2012 Jan-Mar 2013 Jan-Mar 2014
Less than 6
Hours
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Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
Self-employed by whether has employees or not,
Q1 2007 to Q1 2014 (thousands)
5,000
4,500
Total self-employed
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
Self-employed
persons without
employees (ownaccount workers)
1,500
1,000
500
Self-employed
persons with
employees
(employers)
0
2007Q1 2007Q4 2008Q3 2009Q2 2010Q1 2010Q4 2011Q3 2012Q2 2013Q1 2013Q4
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Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
Summary/Conclusions
Recent strong growth in self-employment:
•
reflects a mixture of post-recession effects and longer-term structural
changes
•
broadly based in terms of industries/occupations and working patterns
•
partly reflects ageing workforce generally
• and older profile when compared with employees
•
mostly among the longer established / little evidence of increase in “stopgaps”
•
dominated by long-term self-employed – implying lower outflows
•
“entrepreneurship“/business growth: continues to be just a small factor
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Self-employment income
• Mixed income = National Accounts measure of the
income of unincorporated enterprises owned by
members of households – part of GDP(I).
• Work by the owner or members of their family cannot
be distinguished from the owner's profits as
entrepreneur.
• Mixed income for the household sector is calculated
as profits + rental income – holding gains.
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Mixed income - compilation
Profits and rental
• Rental = income earned through ownership of
buildings
• Annual data source is HMRC data based on selfassessment form – data for 2012/13 will be in BB14
• Series extended for later periods using growth in
labour market indicators - LFS self employment,
average weekly earnings (AWE)
Holding gains
• Gains and losses accrued to owners of assets and
liabilities purely as a result of holding them over time.
• Data supplied as part of estimation of gross capital
formation
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Output of the self-employed
• ONS Interdepartmental Business Register (IDBR) used as
sampling frame for the Annual Business Survey
• Register includes all UK businesses registered for either value
added tax (VAT) or pay as you earn (PAYE)
• But missing units include self-employed, businesses not
registered for VAT/PAYE, businesses without employees, etc.
• To overcome this issue, IDBR under-coverage adjustments are
made as part of annual Supply and Use balancing process
• An adjustment factor is applied to estimates of market sector
output and intermediate consumption at the UK SIC (2007) class
level
• Adjustment factors vary by industry; based on periodic analysis
using additional data from HMRC – last formally updated for Blue
Book 2006
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Experimental estimates of productivity of selfemployed
• No direct information is collected on the output of employees or the
self-employed
• Income approach is used to apportion output, utilising development
work from the sectional unit labour costs system. Income weights
are defined as (COE+GOS)/GDP(Y) for employees, and one minus
this (= mixed income/GDP(Y)) for the self-employed
• These income weights are consistent with those implied in the
national accounts, and are applied to indices of GVA to derive
synthetic GVA indices for employees and the self-employed
separately
• System utilises new hours estimates developed to meet ESA
requirements, with split between employees and the self-employed
• Estimates are non-seasonally adjusted, and presented as fourquarter moving averages, based on 2010=100
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Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
Index 2010=100
Productivity of Employees and Self-Employed
4 Quarter Moving Average
120
110
100
90
80
Self Employed Output per Hour
(Whole Economy)
70
Employee Output per Hour (Whole
Economy)
60
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
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2014
Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
Productivity of Employees and Self-Employed
Index 2010=100
4 Quarter Moving Average
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
Self Employed Output per Hour
(Services)
85
80
Employee Output per Hour
(Services)
75
70
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
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2014
Economic Forum 10 July 2014: self-employment
Index 2010=100
Productivity of Employees and Self-Employed - Construction
4 Quarter Moving Average
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
Self Employed Output per Hour
(Construction)
80
Employee Output per Hour
(Construction)
75
70
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
25
2014
Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @ONS
#ONSeconomy
Website: ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/getinvolved/events/events/economic-forum/index.html
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