Transcript CHINA`S 11th FIVE YEAR PLAN: CREATING A SYSTEM FOR

11th Five-Year Plan:
M&E Indicators and the
Statistical Underpinnings
Wang Pingping
October 2006
The Preliminary M&E Framework for
the 11th Five-Year Plan: Introduction
 Five Guiding Principles – “Five
Balances”
 20 Goals – 4 goals for each
Balance
 80 candidate indicators
The Preliminary M&E Framework for
the 11th Five-Year Plan: A Snap Shot
Five
Balance
s
Balance
One:
Urban
and
rural
balance
How
regularly the
data are
updated?
Known
issues/prob
lems with
the data
Every 5
years
The
definition of
urban and
rural is not
fixed yet.
PC, 1%
PSS and
SSPC,
NBS
Every 5
years
The Data is
not
disseminate
d
RHS:
yearly; AC:
every 10
years.
Quarterly
2010
Goals
I.
Promotin
g
urbanizat
ion
Output/out
come
Indicators
1.
Urbanizatio
n ratio
2.
Population
in cities of
more than 1
million (%)
3. No. of
migrant
workers
converted
into urban
residents
(1,000)
4. New
urban
employment
(1,000)
2005
Baseline
Targets
43%
Benchmarks
47%
Data
source
PC and
1% PSS,
NBS
12600
45,000
RHS and
AC,
NBS
9700
45,000
AR,
MOLSS
Ongoing work
to strengthen
the data
Methodology
and criteria of
statistics.
Selecting Indicators: from an
indicator database
 Economic indicators: Measuring economic
performance drawing upon the national accounts, the
balance of payments covering current and capital
account transactions, price statistics, fiscal data and
monetary and banking aggregates.
 Social indicators linked to the Five Balances to
reflect key policy concerns: education, health,
urbanization, poverty, social security, gender, ethnic
minorities etc.
 Environmental and natural resource linked
indicators linked to resource use (energy, land,
forestry and water use,) levels of pollution and
expenditures on abatement
Initial Set of Candidate Indicators
Principles of
Balances
Goals
Indicators
Urban and Rural
4
16
Coastal and Inland
4
21
Economic and
Social
4
17
Man and Nature
4
13
Domestic and the
World
4
13
Assessing Data Availability for
the Indicators
 Periodically disseminated: 41
 Collected but not disseminated: 24
 Not collected: 7
 Inconsistent among agencies: 8
Ongoing Work to Refine the
Indicators

Suggestions from Brainstorm Meeting with Local
Experts
 Number of indicators could be reduced
 Candidate indicators to be deleted: e.g.,
• 38. Percent of GDP in agriculture, industry and
tertiary.
• 67. Total fertility rate
• 68. Commitment to WTO
 Candidate indicators to be added: e.g.,
• Percent of rural women giving birth in hospital
• Number of people who joined the Workers
Union
Input Indicators
Five
Balances
Input
Activities
Input
Indicators
Balance
One
Government
policies to
guide the
society and
the private
sector
towards
achieving
the goals
set
Central
to be
government provided
expenditure
composition
and
distribution
2005
Baseline
Data
Source
to be
provided
Work to Refine the Input
Indicators
 Suggestions from Brainstorm Meeting with
Local Experts
 The input indicators are very important
 Nobody domestically has ever designed an input
matrix at the national level
 In addition to investment as % of GDP, should
include as % of government revenue and so on.
China’s Statistical System
Sample
Survey
NBS
PST of NBS
Census and Other agencies
administrative report
administrative at National level
mainly at social
report mainly at
aspects, data about
Economic
implementation,
aspects
Survey or census
need special skill
Other agencies
PBS
at provincial level
Prefecture
Survey Team
Prefecture
bureau of
Statistics
CST of NBS
County bureau of
Statistics
Enumerator
Assistant at village
Statistician
at township
Other agencies
at prefecture level
Other agencies
at county level
Assessment on Statistical System
 Key Strengths:
 Strong and sustained political support
 Visionary NBS leadership committed to
change; greater client focus and
transparency.
 Good infrastructure, especially in the IT
area
 Willing international partners,
multilateral and bilateral providing
technical assistance
Assessment on Statistical System
 Weaknesses:
 Less than clear division of responsibilities between
components of the statistical system
 Absence of institutional mechanisms for
coordination; data sharing, introduction of uniform
methods and standards
 Statistical infrastructure (Frames, Registers,
Classifications) inadequately developed
 Statistical work suffers from insufficient funding and
human resources, especially the survey teams and
lower-level statistical agencies
 There are still relatively big data gaps, statistics on
tertiary industry are incomplete, public information
are not clearly categorized, insufficient data
consistency.
Assessment on Statistical System
 Opportunities
 Window of opportunity provided by the
preparation of a Strategic Master Plan for
statistical reforms that would permit the pursuit
of institutional reforms including the definition of
responsibilities of the different components of
the system;
 Adoption of a focused Work Program which will
center on the data collection priorities linked to
the goals of the 11th Five Year Plan in order to
respond to the new demands;
Assessment on Statistical System
 Threats:
 Without a full package of reforms the
statistical system will be unable to
deliver data outputs demanded by users
and provide better statistical services for
the policy making process;
 Growing loss of confidence by users on
statistical outputs
 Increased respondent resistance
Next Steps
• Understand the need and requirement to data
• Make formal and proper arrangement about the data
collecting and dissemination at NBS and relevant
agencies
• Require NBS to clean and analyze the data
• Strengthen statistical capacity
• Set up consultant group to evaluate