Transcript Slayt 1

The Automotive Industry in Turkey
2008 And Beyond?
Prof.Dr.Ercan TEZER / OSD General Secretary
Otomotiv Sanayii Derneği / OSD
Automotive Manufacturers Association
 Founded in 1974
 Main Objectives Are:
 To Represent MV Sector In Public Authorities, Local and International Organisations
 To Gather and Publish Various Information on MVI of Turkey
 To Organize & Conduct Joint Actions in Different Fields
 Is an Active Member of:
 OICA
 ACEA Liaison Committee
 ODETTE
 GAID Group
 TAAM
 OSD is a Partner of ACEA/EUCAR and ERTRAC
 OSD is a Partner of UN/WP29 and EU Motor Vehicle Technical Committee
 All Relevant Information is Found in OSD Web-Site:
www.osd.org.tr/
Milestones of Turkish Economy
FREE
CIRCULATION
OF CAPITAL
EU/TR CUSTOMS
UNION
1989
1996 *
EU ACCESSION
NEGOTIATIONS
DECISION
2005 AND
BEYOND
CLOSED
ECONOMY
1980
1995 *
2002
FREE
MARKET
ECONOMY
WTO
MEMBERSHIP
EU FULL MEMBERSHIP
PERSPECTIVE
Political Uncertainty Resulting In
Business Indecision
Changing Political and Business Habits
Towards a New Turkey
Striving Private Sector
Growth Oriented Market
 Despite Macroeconomic Swings, Turkey Is One Of The World’s Fastest Growing Countries. Since 1986, Real
GDP Growth Rate Averages Are Around 4.3 % Per Year
 GDP Growth In Turkey Is Higher Than That Of OECD (Average Of 2.8%) In The Last 20 Years…
Growing but Volatile
Avrg. Growth Rates
Turkey: 3.6%
OECD: 2.9%
Growth %
12.0
Growing & Predictable
Avrg. Growth Rates
Turkey: 6.9%
OECD: 2.6%
8.0
4.0
0.0
-4.0
Turkey
-8.0
Source: OECD
2008 E
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
-12.0
2007 E
OECD
Foreign Direct Investment
US$ mn
24,000
22,000
Breakdown of FDI
6.0%
20,000
FDI- Real Estate (net)-RHS
FDI (net)-RHS
FDI/GDP-LHS
5.0%
18,000
16,000
14,000
4.0%
12,000
3.0%
10,000
8,000
2.0%
6,000
4,000
1.0%
2,000
0.0%
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007F
(Mainly due to the effect of large scale privatization)
Source: Central Bank of Turkey
Improved Macro Trends
 Improved Trends – Disinflation Is Successful
Consumer Price Inflation
80%
72.7%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
12.7%
10%
9.4%
7.7%
9.7%
8.4%
2004
2005
2006
2007
0%
1993-2002
Average
2003
Source: TURKSTAT and ATA Estimates
Automotive Industry

Global
(70 Mio Production / 62 Countries)

Intensive
(10 Companies / % 90 Production)

Multiple Effect-Creates
(Value Added / Dependable Revenue / Jobs)

High Competition / Costumer Expectation
(Better Safety / Higher Comfort / Rock Bottom Price)

Product Differentiation
(P.Cars - Status / CV - Investment)

Globally Under Heavy Legislation
(Emission / Safety / Climate Change)

Heavy Competitions / Innovation Oriented
Global Changes
1970
Japan
USA
1980
1950
1960
1980
S.America
Europe
1990
1970
PRC
Korea
MVI in World - 2007
(1.000)
11.287
10.905
1) JAPAN
2) USA
8.679
3) CHINA
6.216
4) GERMANY
3.916
5) S.KOREA
6) FRANCE
7) SPAIN
8) BRASIL
9) CANADA
10) INDIA
11)MEXICO
12) ENGLAND
13) RUSSIA
14) ITALY
15) TAILAND
16) TURKEY
17) IRAN
18) ÇEK CUM.
19)BELGIUM
20) POLOND
3.003
2.924
2.908
2.589
2.297
2.062
1.678
1.601
1.292
1.245
1.099
1.000
912
847
748
Ranking in EU (27)
Total
5
Buses
LCV
H.Trucks
P.Cars
1
2
6
9
2008
Production 1.300.000
Capacity
1.500.000
Exports
950.000
Market
675.000
World Total Production – 2005/2020
120.000
103.900
(1.000 Units)
100.000
80.000
P.Cars
LCV
HCV
66.700
60.000
Change
% 46
40.000
20.000
0
2005
2020
Increase in Total Production By Regions 2005/2020
Total
1,56
1,03
1,11
1,11
1,16
N.America
Korea
1,56
1,78
Other
2,21
2,31
Asia/Pasific
3,28
PRC
4,25
0
1
2
3
2020 / 2005
4
Production Moves From West To East
5
Production BRIC Countries 2005 / 2020
40.000
35.000
Russia
Brazil
PRC
India
1.000 Units
30.000
25.000
20.000
Change
X 3.29
15.000
10.000
5.000
0
2005
2020
2005
Russia
Brazil
PRC
India
Total / BRIC
Total / World
1.407
2.350
5.696
1.679
11.132
66.740
2020
3.347
3.588
24.204
5.500
36.639
103.932
2020/2005
2,38
1,53
4,25
3,28
3,29
1,56
Turkey Keeps up With Recent Global Economic
Trends in the Region
 Longest Practice of Global Market Economy
 Emerging Economy Applying the International Rules of Free
Trade Such as Competition Law, Property Rights And Etc.
 Only Country in the Region, Where International Capital
Movements are Liberalized
 Up to Date Infrastructure for Commercial and Financial
Activities, Telecommunication and Transportation
 Competitive Industrial Products for the World Market
 Long Term Relation With EU Within The Association
Agreement Dated 1963
 Candidate Country in Negotiation Process For EU
Membership
Customs Union/1996 and MVI
Customs Union Was Realized Between Turkey and EU For
The Free Circulations of Industrial Goods
 New and More Competitive Conditions in the Market
 Better Incentives Provided for the Industry
Competitiveness an New Models Production
Towards
More
 New Possibilities to be a Global Player
 More Close Integration of MVI’s Between Turkey and EU
 More EU MVI Share in the Market Through Free Circulation of
Industrial Goods
CU Implementation
 For the Free Movement of Industrial Goods Tariffs and NonTariff Measures Were Wholly Abolished
 Turkey Implemented CCT and CTP for Non-EU Countries
 In order to Realize in Full Free Movement of Goods,
Adaptation of Series Technical and Commercial
Legislations Were Realized Such As:
 All Relevant MVI Technical Directives
 Competition Rules / Block Exemption Legislation in MVI
Development of MVI in Turkey: 1960/2010
1960-1970
1970-1980
License
ASSEMBLY
Protected
Market
DEVELOPMENT OF
COMPONENT IND.
INCREASE IN
CAPACITY
1980-1990
1990-1995
Free Market
Global
Competition
Localization
Modernization
UP-TO-DATE MODEL
EXPORT
1995-2000
Transition
Period
Up-to-date Model
FULL INTEGRATION
MANUFACTURING BASE
2000-2012
Research & Development,
Design & Technology Management,
Intellectual & Industrial Property
TARGET FOR 2012 : CENTER of EXCELLENCE
MV Manufacturers in Turkey
85 % of
Components
Manufacturers
ISTANBUL
Izmit
Adapazar ı
Gölcük
Bursa
Ankara
Eskişehir
Izmir
Konya
Aksaray
Antalya
Adana
Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (2008)
Companies
Ownership
TOFAŞ
O.RENAULT
TOYOTA
HYUNDAI ASSAN
HONDA
Partner
Product
Capacity
Vehicle/Year
JV
FIAT
JV
RENAULT
P.Cars
FDI
TOYOTA
JV
HYUNDAI
FDI
HONDA
P.Cars Total
FORD OTOSAN JV
FORD
HYUNDAI ASSAN JV
HYUNDAI
KARSAN
Local
PEUGEOT
B.M.C.
Local
Local
OTOYOL
JV
IVECO
CV
M.BENZ TÜRK
JV
M.BENZ
ANADOLU ISUZU JV
ISUZU
TEMSA
Local
Local
ASKAM
Local
Local
OTOKAR
Local
LAND ROVER
M.A.N.
FDI
MAN
CV Total
400.000
360.000
150.000
100.000
50.000
1.060.000
295.000
25.000
25.000
22.000
18.000
13.000
13.000
11.000
9.000
8.000
4.000
443.000
Total
1.503.000
MVI Integration
Number of Manufacturers 15
Link With Non-EU
* JV
* License
* JV
* License
7
(% 70 of 2006 production)
3
(% 2 of 2006 production)
6
1
Local
Link With Non-EU Manufacturers
Link With EU Manufacturers
FIAT GROUP
FORD
MAN
M.BENZ
RENAULT
ROVER GROUP
PEUGEOT
(% 28 of 2006 production)
4
1
Link With EU







5
JV
JV
FDI
JV
JV
L
L






ISUZU
TOYOTA
MITSUBISHI
HONDA
HYUNDAI
HINO
JV
FDI
L
FDI
JV
L
Automotive Component Industry In Turkey

Around 1000 Component Suppliers: 350 Of Them Are Global Supplier

International Accreditation: Quality – ISO 16949, Environment - ISO 14001

Well Trained Work Force: Around 250.000

Cost Advantage: High Productivity and Relatively Less Labor Wage

Significant Experience In Their Field

Able To Meet Global Standards

Able To Compete In International Markets

Experience In Exporting Products
History of the Production (x1.000)
1.200
1.100
Passenger Cars
1.000
Total
1.100
635
900
800
700
600
500
Total Production:
3,000
1,100,000
in 1963
in 2007
421
348
431
297
400
110
47
300
200
100
243
213
271
175
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
0
3
High Fluctuations In the Past Have Had A Particularly Negative Effect On The
Development And Competitiveness Of The Industry
Changes in Last 6 Years (x1.000)
1.000
1.400
1.200
Production
1.100
800
706
988
1.000
823
879
600
519
800
534
600
400
830
Exports
X 3.17
347
561
359
400
X 3.17
262
200
200
0
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
1.000
746
2004
2005
20.500
640
14.560
15.000
X 3.65
400
2007
20.000
600
401
2006
Exports / Million $
763
670
200
2003
25.000
Total Market
800
2002
2007
175
10.020
10.000
6.518
5.000
0
11.540
X 4.72
4.344
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Exports Share in Total Production is Over 70 %
1.600
1.400
100
%
(X 1000)
71
Rate of Exports in
1.200
73
64 62 62
Production
1.000
800
71
75
Total Production
% 75
P. Cars
% 80
70
50
30
40
22
200
12 13
5
8
9
30
20
10
3
2
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Exports
10
8
15
37
42
31
37
91
104
202
262
359
508
552
697
820
Production
345
453
269
326
329
400
405
326
468
286
357
562
823
879
988
1.100
3
2
5
12
13
8
9
30
22
71
73
64
62
62
71
75
0
Exports (%)
80
60
600
400
90
0
The Automotive Market is An Unsaturated One
600
510
SMMT / Vehicle/1.000 Inhabitants in 2007
493
391
400
343
361
200
144
138
Turkey
604
WORLD
800
Bulgaria
Hungary
Poland
Spain
Greece
Germany
0
Approximately 15 million vehicles are to be sold in Turkey
to reach to the level of Bulgaria in 10 years
Whose GDP per capita are rather similar
The Assets & Potential of MVI of Turkey
 Automotive Culture
 High Sense of Quality
 Labor Peace
50 Years of Production Tradition
TQM, Lean Production, 6 Sigma
Unionized Work Force / Collective Bargaining Since
1963
 Qualified, Well-Educated, Motivated Labor Force at Competitive Cost
 Flexible Working Hours
7.5 hours / shift - 3 shifts / day - 6 days / week;
Rate of Absenteeism < 1.5 %






Entrepreneurship
$ 10 Billion worth of Investment
Partnership With World-Leading Manufacturers
Experienced Local Component Industry / Supplier Base
Unsaturated Domestic Market With High Potential of Demand
More Incentives on R & D and New Investments
Developed Infrastructure & Services in the Region
Logistics, Energy, Transport, Banking, Communication
 Manufacturing Facilities With State-of-the-Art Technology
Prospects of the Turkish Automotive Industry
o In The Short Term
Production:
Over 1,0 Million
Exports:
Over 0,8 Million
o In The Medium Term Production:
Exports:
Already Realized
2,0 Million
1,5 Million
Can be Achieved
Which Corresponds To An Employment Of 500,000 Persons
And Exports Of $ 40 Billion
This Requires An Additional Investment Of At Least $ 5 Billion
The Strategy and Action Plan
● Optimizing Capacity Utilization
 Increasing The Size Of The Domestic Market
 Continuation Of Exports
● Increasing The Competitiveness
 Cost Reduction By Means Of Productivity Improvements
 Encouraging More Innovation In The Industry
 Better Supply Chain Management
● Developing The Vehicle And Component Industries
Concurrently
 Establishing And Building On Strategic Partnerships
 Effective Cooperation On “Pre-competitive” Level
Future Prospects in Cooperation
● PIEMONTE Automotive Region is a Leading Centre
of Design and Development
● MVI of Turkey is Aiming to be a Center of
Excellence
● A Fruitful Cooperation Has Already Started in
Academic Level Between ULUDAĞ University and
TORINO Polytechnic Institute
● Further Cooperation is to be Developed Between
Partners in Different Fields of Design Activities
Thank You For Your Interest
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