Transcript Climate Industry - UNC Asheville—Atmospheric Sciences

Climatic Impacts on Industry
and Commerce
Outline
• Background
• Climate factors
– Industry placement
– Sensitivities of industry
– Impacts on production
• Construction and
Commerce
• The emerging climate
industry
Background
• Research on climate and industry sparse
• Known impacts
– Industry changes do not respond to weather
– Industry changes may respond to climate but
at long time scales
– Climate affects people, who in turn affect
industry (types, location, success)
Placement of Industry
• Emissions
considerations
– Inversion layers
common?
• Precipitation
Clarksville, TN Coal Fired Plant
Los Angeles, CA (2007)
Dispersion Modeling
• Determine sensitivities of an area to
emissions
• Determine impacts of a chemical leak or
spill
• Example: HYSPLIT model
– Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated
Trajectory Model
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT_info.php
Industry Climate Sensitivities
[Table 14.2]
Industry Climate Sensitivities
[Table 14.3]
Industry Climate Sensitivities
• Migration of workers to better climates
– Asheville?
• Industry primarily vulnerable to extreme
weather events
• Beyond that, climate change has little
direct influence on industry
Climate affects GDP
IPCC (2007)
Construction Considerations
• Structural and architectural design
• Weather affects construction times and
costs
– Rain delays
• Examples
– Recent civil suit in Bristol, VA
– Tacoma Narrows Bridge (1940)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mclp9QmCGs
Construction Considerations
• Culvert not big enough to withstand large
rainfall event
Construction Considerations
• Concrete must be set at certain
temperatures
– 7-day cure between 65-85°F, < 100% RH
• Choice in construction site
– Not too hot, not too cold, not too wet, not too
dry, just right…
Climate and Commerce
• People respond to weather and climate
changes in the things they buy and do
– e.g. more ice cream on hot days
• Entertainment options
– Ski resorts
– Movies
– Others?
Future Considerations
• Ice free Arctic passage
– More efficient trade
– Territory disputes
• More extreme events
• Sea Level Rise
• The new climate industry
An Emerging Industry?
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“Green” construction
Bioenergy
Renewable Energy
Carbon trading
~ $100 billion already (2006, Climate
Change Business Journal)
• 20-30% growth rate annually
Green Building
• Buildings use 72%
electricity, 38% CO2
emissions, 30% waste
output in U.S.
• $45 billion industry(2007)
Benefits of Green Building
• Environmental
– Improve air and water quality
– Reduce waste
– Conserve natural resources
• Economic
– Reduce operating costs
– Improve employee productivity
• Health
– Improve air, thermal, acoustic
environments
– Minimize strain on local infrastructure
Bioenergy
• Biofuels and biopower
• 21.1 billion in revenues
(2007, 16% growth)
• Types of bioenergy
– landfill gas to energy
– ethanol
– biomass gasification
(combustion of biomass to
produce CO, hydrogen, and
methane)
http://www.ers.usda.gov/features/bioenergy/
Impacts of Bioenergy Development
• Food prices going up
– High corn demand
– Less planting areas for other crops
http://www.ers.usda.gov/multimedia/EthanolMay2007/
Ethanol Questions
• To power 1 vehicle for 1 year in U.S. on
ethanol/gasoline blend**
– 11 acres farmland (food for 7 people)
– 131,000 BTUs to produce 1 gallon of ethanol
• 77,000 BTUs energy output from 1 gallon of
ethanol
• Alternatives?
– Brazil has sugarcane based biofuel
• 1 calorie of energy produces 8.2 calories of energy
** David Pimental, Cornell University
Renewable Energy
• Energy produced from natural
resources
–
–
–
–
Solar
Wind
Tides
Geothermal
• 0.8% of global energy (2006) from
these sources
• Biomass (13%) also renewable
Wind Power Industry
• Growing rapidly
– 45% growth in 2007
– $9 billion investment into the economy
– Generate 1.5% of U.S. electricity (2008 – 5.7
million homes)
http://www.awea.org/
http://www.awea.org/pubs/factsheets/Market_Update.pdf
Wind Power Potential
Solar Industry
• 3,850,000 x 1018 J
of energy absorbed
by Earth’s
atmosphere in 1
year
– 1 hour will power
everything for 1
year
Solar Insolation
If disks were populated with solar arrays, it would power the entire earth
“Passive” Solar
• Using sunlight
without active
mechanical
systems
– Sunlight for heat
– Solar water
heating
– Natural ventilation
– Selective shading
/ sun orientation
“Active” Solar
• Use of mechanical
equipment to
transfer solar energy
into useable means
– Photovoltaic panels
– Pumps, fans
– Alignment of solar
cells
The Solar Industry
• 2008 – Record
installations of
photovoltaic (PV)
installations
– 5.95 gigawatts (GW)
– 110% increase from
2007
• 82% of demand in
Europe
• $37.1 billion revenues
Carbon Trading – A New Market
• Goal is to mitigate global carbon
emissions
• Bring “buyers” (industry, power plants,
etc.) and “sellers” (forest landowners,
agricultural land) together
• Analogous to a salary cap in professional
sports
– Government or other entity sets the limit
– Exceed the limit? Must buy credits
– Below the limit? May sell credits
Carbon Market Critics
• Does not reduce carbon emissions
– Non-polluting industries just sell credits to the
highest bidder
• Focuses on short term carbon footprint
rather than long-term strategic initiatives
• Grandfathering of older industries by
governments (form of immunity)