Transcript Generic Vision 2050 Short Presentation

Vision
2050
Title of the event
Place & date
World Business Council for
Sust ainable D evelopment
The new agenda for business
Summary
Overview of the Vision 2050 project
Part 1: Business-as-usual outlook to 2050
Part 2: The Vision for 2050
Part 3: The pathway to 2050
Part 4: Business opportunities
Conclusion: Urgent action is needed!
About Vision 2050
• The vision concept and the 2050 timeframe provide
a clear and feasible goal for…
o
Identifying the gap between today and 2050
o
Developing a pathway and areas of action
o
Clarifying the business perspective
o
Quantifying market potential
o
Agreeing on action points and next steps
A collaborative effort involving 29
companies
A global business dialogue
The different steps of the Vision 2050
project
Opportunities
Pathway to
2050
Vision 2050
Business-asusual
outlook to
2050
Growth and degradation
Growth
Degradation
The world population is increasingly urban
Greenhouse gas emissions keep rising
Glo bal p opulat ion b y t yp e of area and b y region – 1950-2050
GHG emissions b y regions
10,000
80
9,000
70
60
7,000
6,000
Urban - Less developed
5,000
Rural - Less developed
Urban - M ore developed
4,000
Rural - M ore developed
3,000
GtCO2eq
Population in millions
8,000
50
Res tof the world
40
BRIC(Brazil,
Rus s ia,
India,China)
OECD
30
20
2,000
1,000
10
0
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Global economic power is shifting
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Environmental degradation jeopardizes
people’s quality of life
Top 10 economies by GDP in 2050
People living in areas of w at er st ress b y level of st ress
80,000
GDP 2006 US$ bn
70,000
2005
60,000
50,000
2030
Severe
40,000
2005
Medium
30,000
Low
2030
20,000
10,000
No
2005
an
y
er
m
0
G
Ja
pa
n
Ki
ng
do
m
2030
500
1,000
1,500
U
ni
te
d
R
us
si
a
In
do
ne
si
a
l
Br
az
i
ex
ic
o
M
In
di
a
St
at
es
U
ni
te
d
C
hi
na
0
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Millionsof people
The global middle class is rapidly expanding
The world could be running out of some resources
Population in low- and middle-incom e countries earning US$ 4,00 0-17,000 per capit a
(p urchasing p ower parit y)
Global sup pl y forecast s accord ing t o t he im plied ult im at e recoverable
resources of convent ional oil, date of peak produ ct ion and t he post-p eak
aggregat e decli ne rat e
1.2 billion
8%
14
12
Sub-Saharan
Afric a
10
SouthAs ia
Middle Eas and
t
North Afric a
8
6
LatinAmeric aand the Caribbean
Europeand CentralAs ia
400 million
Eas tAs iaand the
4
2
Forecastpost-peakdeclinerate
Percent of globalpopulation
16
7%
5%
4%
3%
USEIA
Shell
6%
Peak Oil Consulting
OPEC
LBST
Miller
IEA
Meling
Campbell
BGR
2%
Uppsala
1%
Total
0
0%
2005
2030
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Forec as tdate of peak
2035
2040
2045
2050
Growth: The world population is
increasingly urban
Global population by type of area and by region – 1950-2050
10,000
9,000
Population in millions
8,000
7,000
6,000
Urban - Less developed
5,000
Rural - Less developed
Urban - More developed
4,000
Rural - More developed
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, 2008
Growth: The world population is
increasingly urban
Between now and 2050 the global
population is expected to increase from
6.9 billion to more than 9
billion, with
98% of this growth happening in
cities and in the developing and
emerging world
Growth: Global economic power is
shifting
Top 10 economies by GDP in 2050
80,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
er
m
an
y
G
Ki
ng
d
om
pa
n
U
ni
te
d
Ja
ia
ne
s
In
do
si
a
R
us
ic
o
il
Br
az
In
di
a
M
ex
U
ni
te
d
St
at
es
0
C
hi
na
GDP 2006 US$ bn
70,000
Source: Goldman Sachs, BRICs and Beyond, 2007
Growth: Global economic power is
shifting
Most of the economic growth will
happen in developing or
emerging economies
Growth: The global middle class is
rapidly expanding
Population in low- and middle-income countries earning
US$ 4,000-17,000 per capita (purchasing power parity)
1.2 billion
16
Percent of global population
14
12
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
10
Middle East and North Africa
8
6
Latin America and the Caribbean
Europe and Central Asia
400 million
East Asia and the
4
2
0
2005
2030
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, 2007
Growth: The global middle class is
rapidly expanding
About 800
million people
will join the middle
class in low and middle
income countries
Degradation: Greenhouse gas emissions
keep rising
GHG emissions by regions
80
70
GtCO2eq
60
50
Rest of the world
40
BRIC (Brazil,
Russia, India, China)
OECD
30
20
10
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Source: OECD, Environmental Outlook to 2030, 2008
Degradation: Greenhouse gas emissions
keep rising
GHG are projected to grow by a further
52% to 2050, resulting in an increase
in global temperature in the range of
1.7-2.4° C, leading to increased heat
waves, droughts, storms and floods,
resulting in severe damage to key
infrastructure and crops
Degradation: Environmental degradation
jeopardizes people’s quality of life
People living in areas of water stress by level of stress
2005
2030
Severe
2005
Medium
Low
2030
No
2005
2030
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Millions of people
Source: OECD, Environmental Outlook to 2030, 2008
Degradation: Environmental degradation
jeopardizes people’s quality of life
Over the past
half century
15 of the 24 ecosystem
services have been
degraded according to the
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Degradation: The world could be running
out of some resources
Global supply forecasts according to the implied ultimate recoverable
resources of conventional oil, date of peak production and the post-peak
aggregate decline rate
Forecast post-peak decline rate
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
USEIA
Shell
Peak Oil Consulting
OPEC
LBST
Miller
IEA
Meling
Campbell
BGR
2%
Uppsala
1%
Total
0%
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast date of peak
Source: UKERC, The Global Oil Depletion Report, 2009
2050
Degradation: The world could be running
out of some resources
Oil production will
peak and
decrease
Ecological estimates: Getting to one
planet by the end of the 2050s
Vision 2050 ecological footprint against business-as-usual
How many Earths do we use?
2.5
2.3 Earths (BAU)
Numberof Earths
2
1.5
1.1 Earths (Vision2050 )
1
Carbon footprint
Cropland
0.5
Grazing land
Forest land
0
Built-up land
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Fishing ground
Year
Source: Global Footprint Network and WBCSD Vision 2050, 2010
Asian countries
European
countries
Meeting human demands within
the
Latin American and
ecological limits of the planet Caribbean countries
North American countries
Oceanian countries
Meeting the dual goals of sustainability
Asian countries
European countries
Latin American and
Caribbean countries
North American countries
Oceanian countries
10
8
6
0.2
4
2
Ecological Footprint (global hectares per person)
12
World average biocapacity per person in 1961
12
10
8
6
4
2
World average biocapacity per person in 2006
Ecological Footprint (global hectares per person)
African countries
UNDP threshold for high human development
High human development and low ecological impact
High human development
within the Earth’s limits
0.4
0.6
United Nations Human Development Index
0.8
1.0
Source: © Global Footprint Network (2009).
Data from Global Footprint Network National
Footprint Accounts, 2009 Edition; UNDP
Human Development Report, 2009
Nine billion people living well, within the
limits of the planet
•
•
•
•
•
•
Diversity and interdependence
A different economic reality
Multi-partner governance
In markets: Innovating and deploying solutions
Dealing with climate change
An evolved workplace and evolved employers
pathway to Vision 2050
To aThe
sustainable
world in 2050
TODAY
From business-as-usual
People’s values
Vision for 2050
“One World – People
and Planet” lifestyles
Turbulent teens
Understanding and
encouraging change
through cooperation
Happiness does not completely depend
on GDP
Income, economic well-being and happiness in the USA
Income, economic well-being and happiness in the USA
(Index: 1980=100)
(index: 1980 = 100)
200
Transformation time
Sustainable living
becomes mainstream
180
160
GDP per capita
140
Economic well-being
Happiness
120
100
80
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Measures of Well-being, 2006 (from GGDC, CSLS, GSS/Eurobarometer)
Human development
Vision for 2050
Basic needs of all are
met
Turbulent teens
Building trust,
entrepreneurialism,
inclusiveness
People are living longer
Life expect
by regionby- 1950-2050
Life ancy
expectancy
region – 1950-2050
90
80
Life expectancy (years)
Transformation time
Ecosystems and
enterprises help
create value
70
Lessdeveloped regions - least
developed countries (Male)
60
More developed regions (Male)
Lessdeveloped regions - least
developed countries (Female)
50
More developed regions (Female)
40
30
1950
1975
2000
2025
2050
Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, 2008
Economy
Vision for 2050
True value, true costs,
true profits
Turbulent teens
Redefining progress
Transformation time
True values help drive
inclusive markets
Reconsidering success and progress
What GDP does and does not measure
Happiness
genetics
Living
conditions
Economic
well-being
environment
family
GDP
depreciation
leisure
consumption
health
wealth
friends
(inequality)
work
satisfaction
education
communities
net
investment
non-market
activity
net income
going to
foreigners
regrettables
(unemployment)
(insecurity)
(brackets indicate negative impact)
Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Measures of Well-being, 2006
Agriculture
Vision for 2050
Enough food, water
and biofuels through a
new Green Revolution
Turbulent teens
Cultivating knowledgeintensive agriculture
Cereal yield by region – 1960-2010
4.0
3.0
Tonnes per hectare
Transformation time
Growth in global trade,
crop yield and carbon
management
Africa’s yield growth has lagged behind
other regions
Africa
Southern Asia
2.0
Europe
1.0
0.0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark, Realising the Potential of Africa’s Youth, 2009 (FAOSTAT)
Forests
Vision for 2050
Recovery and
regeneration
Turbulent teens
Carbon incentives
drive progress
Consumption of industrial roundwood by region – 1965-2030
900
800
700
North America
600
millions m 3
Transformation time
Growing momentum
for forest protection
and efficient
production
Increasing consumption of industrial
roundwood
Europe
500
Asiaand
400
Latin America
300
Africa
200
Westernand
Central Asia
100
0
1965
1990
2005
Source: FAO, State of the World’s Forests 2009, 2009
2020
2030
Energy and power
Vision for 2050
Secure and sufficient
supply of low-carbon
Turbulent teens
Tilting and leveling the
playing field for
energy
Transformation time
Greenhouse gas
emissions peak and
decline
Huge capacity additions needed to deliver
the new energy mix
Average annual power generation – capacity additions – 2010-2050
30 - 35 CCS
Coal-
1 - 20 CCS
Gas-
plants (500 MW)
plants (500 MW)
24 - 32 nuclear plants (1,000 MW)
1/5 of Canada's hydropower capacity
30 - 100 biomass plants (50 MW)
2,900 - 14,000 wind turbines (4 MW)
Wind-
775 - 3,750 wind turbines (4 MW)
Wind-o
50 - 130 geothermal units (100 MW)
115 - 215 million m² solar panels
45 - 80 CSPplants (250 MW)
0
10
20
30
GW per year
40
50
Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, © OECD/IEA 2008
60
Energy and power
Vision for 2050
Secure and sufficient
supply of low-carbon
Turbulent teens
Tilting and leveling the
playing field for
energy
A new energy mix to reduce CO2 emissions
World abatement of energy-related CO2 emissions in the 450 scenario
Transformation time
Greenhouse gas
emissions peak and
decline
Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2009, © OECD/IEA 2009
Buildings
Vision for 2050
Close to zero net
energy buildings
Turbulent teens
Turning the market
toward energy
efficiency
System integration is key to achieving
energy efficiency in buildings
Players and practices in the building market
Transformation time
Smarter buildings,
wiser users
Source: WBCSD, Energy Efficiency in Buildings, 2008
Mobility
Vision for 2050
Universal access to
safe and low-impact
mobility
Turbulent teens
A holistic approach
improves overall
transport
Transformation time
Towards alternative
drivetrains and fuels
Materials
Vision for 2050
Not a particle of
waste
Turbulent teens
Doing more with less
Eliminating waste by closing the material
loop
An alternative material life cycle
Transformation time
Closing the loop
Manufacturer
Long
use
Reuseof
products
Reuseof
parts
Closed loop
materials
recycling
Open loop
materials
recycling
User
Landfill
Source: WBCSD
The risks to achieving Vision 2050
Risks in the elements of the
pathway
Wild cards that could take the
world off the Vision 2050 track
•
People’s values: Can we all agree?
•
New understanding of how the Earth works
•
Economy: Swimming against the tide of
mainstream economics
•
A World of new ideological blocs, failing
states or resources war
•
Agriculture: Politics, water shortages
could uproot the Green Revolution
•
Disagreement on valuing the environment
•
Unintended consequences of new
technologies
•
Forests: Is it too late already?
•
Energy: Progress may be victim to
power struggles
•
Extended economic recessions or economic
depression
•
Buildings: In a bad market incentives
could fall
•
Natural disasters
•
Mobility: Will not become sustainable
without a systemic approach
•
Materials: Recycling can be expensive
Economic estimates: Considerable
opportunities
Illustrative estimates of the global order of magnitude of potential
additional sustainability related business opportunities in key sectors
in 2050
A n n u al val u e i n 2 0 5 0
( US$ t r i l l i o n at co n st an t 2 0 0 8
p r i ces: m i d -p o i n t s w i t h r an g es
sh o w n i n b r ack et s)
% o f p r o j ect ed w o r l d GDP
i n 2050
Energy
2.0 (1.0-3.0)
1.0 (0.5-1.5)
Forest ry
0.2 (0.1-0.3)
0.1 (0.05-0.15)
Agriculture and food
1.2 (0.6-1.8)
0.6 (0.3-0.9)
Water
0.2 (0.1-0.3)
0.1 (0.05-0.15)
M et als
0.5 (0.2-0.7)
0.2 (0.1-0.3)
To t al : Nat u r al r eso u r ces
4 .1 ( 2 .0 -6 .1)
2 .0 ( 1.0 -3 .0 )
2.1 (0.8-3.5)
1.0 (0.5-1.5)
6 .2 ( 2 .8 -9.6 )
3 .0 ( 1.5 -4 .5 )
Sect o r s
Healt h and educat ion
To t al
Source: PwC estimates drawing on data from IEA, OECD and the World Bank
Ecological estimates: Getting to one
planet by the end of the 2050s
Vision 2050 ecological footprint against business-as-usual
How many Earths do we use?
2.5
2.3 Earths (BAU)
Numberof Earths
2
1.5
1.1 Earths (Vision2050 )
1
Carbon footprint
Cropland
0.5
Grazing land
Forest land
0
Built-up land
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Fishing ground
Year
Source: Global Footprint Network and WBCSD Vision 2050, 2010
Business domains for the next decade –
Opportunities and overlaps
Building & transforming cities: The development of
cities presents significant opportunities
Investment requirements for urban infrastructure up to 2030
Water
Energy
Roads and railways
Ports and airports
0
10
20
US$ trillions
Source: Booz Allen Hamilton, Strategy+Business, n°46, 2007 (from Booz Allen Hamilton, Global Infrastructure
Partners, World Energy Outlook, OECD, Boeing, Drewry Shipping Consultants, U.S. Department of Transportation)
30
Building & transforming cities: The development of
cities presents significant opportunities
Estimates suggest that by 2030
US$ 40 trillion will need to
be invested in urban
infrastructure worlwide
Water infrastructure: A great variety of
solutions will be needed
Demand for water will outstrip supply – Action is needed to plug the gap
Base-case demand, supply and corresponding gaps for certain regions
Aggregate 2030 demand
Aggregate gap
2030 supply
Billion m 3
India
1,498
818
China
Agriculture
Industry
São Paulo state
20
South Africa
18
0%
20%
40%
60%
80% 100%
Municipal and domestic
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Billion m 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
% of demand
Source: McKinsey/Water Resources Group, Charting our water future, 2009
Waste management infrastructure: Excess
inputs and outputs will be redeployed/reused
Metals and materials will increasingly be mined from products in use
Outlook for different sources of aluminum – 1995-2030
350
Million tonnes
300
250
200
Virgin metal shipments
Scrap/increased recycling rates
150
Aluminum bank
(alumin um stored in pr oducts)
100
50
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Source: Hydro Aluminium, Aluminium for a Viable Society, 2004
Health
Increased access to better
healthcare and prevention
will have positive effects on the
economy and businesses
Products and services for aging
populations
The world is aging
The world population by age cohort – 1950-2050
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
Population aged 65+
50%
Population aged 15-64
40%
Population aged 0-14
30%
20%
10%
0%
1950
2000
2050
Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, 2008
Products and services for aging
populations
Each month around 1.9
million people in the world
will join the ranks of the
over 65s
By 2020 people aged 65
and above will account for
about
one-fifth of the total
global population
Building and managing complex
coalitions
Building complex coalitions for social and economic development
Traditionaldevelopment
(supply-side bias)
New partnershipparadigm
Nongovernmental
organiz ations
(NGO s)
High
Complex
coalition
structures
Social
Development
Private
sector
Low
Market-basedapproach
(demand-side bias)
Low
EconomicDevelopment
High
Source: Accenture, Development Collaboration, None of our Business? 2009
Conclusion and way forward
Urgent action is needed
• Complex systems will provide the foundation
• Business cannot do it alone
• The journey begins now…