Transcript The economic outlook in the euro area: Good news

Europe’s Social Reality
Frédéric Lerais
Bureau of European Policy Advisers
Brussels, 8 May 2007
Roger Liddle & Frédéric Lerais, Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA)
Slide 1
What does the report do?
1. Discussion paper on ‘Europe’s Social Reality’ to stimulate debate
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Citizen’s agenda (10th May Communication)
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Not a Commission policy statement or official consultation paper
Consultation runs for the rest of the year 2007
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No hidden agenda on the part of the Commission
No presumption of bigger role for Brussels
2. Analyse social well-being across EU27
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Beyond Growth and Jobs : the social condition of Europeans
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Various studies on well-being
• OECD, WB…;
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Analysis of the factors behind
• Jobs, family, health, etc.
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Do MS, for all their diversity, face common challenges?
Roger Liddle & Frédéric Lerais, Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA)
Slide 2
Happiness indicators
Apparent happiness
throughout Europe
Roger Liddle & Frédéric Lerais, Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA)
Slide 3
Anticipated life for future generations
Contrasted anticipated
futures for generations
to come
Roger Liddle & Frédéric Lerais, Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA)
Slide 4
1. Trends
1.1 5 Important trends
Social changes are driven by :
1.
2.
3.
Globalisation but also by numerous internal factors
Rapid transformation to a knowledge and service economy;
Development of Welfare State: new opportunities & new
dependencies;
4. Demographics, Gender equality, and changing family;
5.
Mass affluence and the individualization of values.
Roger Liddle & Frédéric Lerais, Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA)
Slide 5
1. Trends
Globalisation is driving social change in Europe
• Some loss of low skilled jobs subject to new international competition;
• Some ‘delocalization’ – but not as much as people think and often;
• Some outsourcing;
• Increased migratory pressures;
• Intense pressure on energy and natural resources: need to tackle climate
change.
Roger Liddle & Frédéric Lerais, Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA)
Slide 6
2.Towards a knowledge and service economy
Fast shifts in occupational structure
In EU15; 2/3 of all jobs in services (EU15); 40% work in 'knowledge sectors'
Between 2000 and 2004: 1.7m fewer industrial jobs; 1.1m fewer agricultural
jobs; 8m more service jobs.
50% of jobs demand high cognitive and/or personal skills;
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Two thirds of new jobs are skilled;
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Bleak prospects for unskilled: unemployment rate three times higher than
for graduates.
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1 in 3 of the EU workforce is unskilled;
1 in 6 still leaving school without skills;
Educational performance, particularly attainment of intermediate skills, in
decline in some MS;
Problems for low skilled losing jobs in mid-life.
Roger Liddle & Frédéric Lerais, Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA)
Slide 7
3. Welfare state
Impacts
Outcomes
• Better health services and pensions plus the abolition of absolute poverty
increasing life expectancy.
• Dramatic European achievement in terms of life expectancy 43.5 (1900);
75.5 (2000), 82 (2050)
But, rise in dependency:
• among 55-64 year olds over 40% of men and 60% of women have
dropped out of the labour market;
Persistence of relative poverty:
• 1 in 6 over 65s – 12 million of 72 million pensioners –at risk of poverty.
• 1 in 5 children– 18 million of the EU’s 94 million children
• Single parent families: 4.4% of all EU households;
• Jobless households, 60% at risk of poverty;
• and rising in several MS
Roger Liddle & Frédéric Lerais, Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA)
Slide 8
Pessimism about of welfare systems
'For each of the following please tell me whether you think it applies to the
(NATIONALITY) social welfare system? Our social welfare system… '
Answers 'It applies to…' – EU 25
Is too expensive for the
(NATIONALITY) society
53%
Provides wide enough
coverage
Could serve as a model
for other countries
51%
42%
Expensive but worth it
Roger Liddle & Frédéric Lerais, Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA)
Slide 9
4. Demographic changes
4.1 Declining fertility and ageing
• A fertility well below sustainable levels (2,69 (60’s) to 1,5)
• Biggest recent falls in fertility in southern Europe and new Member States
• Fertility rates higher in MS with better childcare, easier maternity and
paternity leave and greater availability of part time work
• Women with jobs now more likely to have children
• Supporting the 'dual earner' couple now the prime task of family policy
Some consequences
• Age related expenditures rise by 2.5% of GDP by 2030 and 4.3% by 2050;
• 28% of over 70s currently live alone; 40% of over 80s;
• Up to two thirds of over 75 dependent on informal care;
• Extended families weakening care for elderly at same time as to stay at
work longer;
• Yet (mainly) women carers under pressure.
Roger Liddle & Frédéric Lerais, Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA)
Slide 10
4. Demographic changes
4.2 Migration can be source of new labour supply
Profound impact
• Birmingham or Marseilles made up of more than 1/3 of minorities;
• 'Non-native Dutch population' forecast to be 14% of total population by
2020 – but 50% population of Amsterdam and Rotterdam;
• This diversity enriches Europe: migrant contribution to diet, sport, social
welfare and public services;
Big problems of social integration remain.
• Discrimination, especially in labour market
• Poor educational attainment
• Problems of perception
– 60% of Europeans believe there are limits to how many people of
minorities, other religions or cultures a society can accept ( 25% reject
multiculturalism)
• Strong economy and Social Model is no guarantee of integration
(Denmark);
• Debate and dialogue on common obligations of citizenship.
Roger Liddle & Frédéric Lerais, Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA)
Slide 11
The question of immigration
'For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you tend to agree or
tend to disagree.'
Answers 'Tend to agree' – EU 25
People from other ethnic groups are enriching the
cultural life of (OUR COUNTRY)
54%
We need immigrants to work in certain sectors of
our economy
48%
The presence of people from other ethnic groups
increases unemployment in (OUR COUNTRY)
46%
The presence of people from other ethnic groups is
a cause of insecurity
The arrival of immigrants in Europe can efficiently
solve the problem of Europe’s ageing population
Roger Liddle & Frédéric Lerais, Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA)
42%
32%
Slide 12
5. Mass affluence and individualization
Material needs increasingly satisfied
• New consumer demands for leisure, fitness, tourism, style;
• New occupations driving Europe's transformation to a knowledge
and service economy;
• Information empowerment: demand for more personalized and
consumer accountable public as well as private services;
• Growth of self-health;
• Increasing consciousness of risk
Changes in value
• Increasing secularization/ decline of religious belief;
• Decline in ‘social capital’/ civic engagement/ trust in politics;
• Greater personal freedom; tolerance of diverse sexuality and
lifestyles.
• Changes in family composition
Roger Liddle & Frédéric Lerais, Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA)
Slide 13
To sum up
All in All, Europeans should be optimistic about the EU's ability
to prosper in a Global Age
Critical common challenges :
• Education and skills in the knowledge economy : in some
Member States educational performance in decline;
• Generational inequity due to demographic change.
• Europe needs more migrants : but considerable problems of
social integration in many Member States;
• Risks of social polarization : increasing poverty and
inequality; declining social mobility; high level of child
poverty.
Roger Liddle & Frédéric Lerais, Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA)
Slide 14
Web-site
• For more information,
• to read the full BEPA report
• to follow the public consultation
visit
http://ec.europa.eu/citizens_agenda/social_reality_
stocktaking/index_en.htm
Roger Liddle & Frédéric Lerais, Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA)
Slide 15