Transcript Beyond recession? - Real Estate and Construction

Beyond recession?: sustainable
urban development
Tim Dixon: OISD, Oxford Brookes University
Integrated sustainable urban
development
 “An integrated plan for
sustainable urban
development comprises a
system of interlinked actions
which seeks to bring about a
lasting improvement in the
economic, physical, social
and environmental
conditions of a city or an
area within the city”
(URBACT, 2010)
Interacting Forces
 “The two defining
challenges of the 21st
century are overcoming
poverty and avoiding
dangerous climate
change. If we fail on one
of them we fail on the
other.” (Nicholas Stern)
Economy
Energy
Environment
Recovery Matrix (Sato, 2010)
Short-term
a. Credit
b. Recession
Long- term
(Positioning
the city in the
face of long
term global
shifts)
Examples:
Transition
Cities, Slow
Cities, Mayors
Covenant,
WWF One
Planet Living.
Economy (firms and
labour market)
Society (People)
Filling the gap in credit for
firms (e.g. Lyon – sale
and leaseback of land)
Bringing forward public
investment and
expenditure (eg. Spanish
Local Authorities)
Short term working
arrangements (Germany,
Duisberg)
Subsidising existing jobs
and sectors
Creating temporary jobs
and training (Intermediate
Labour Markets (UK),
Work Integration Coops
(Germany), Type B
Coops (Italy)
Debt advice and support.
Tax and rate cuts
Minimum income
support
Advice and support for
housing, heating,
transport, basic services.
Integration policies.
Building resilience and
insulation from
recession.
Creating the conditions
and investing in
sustainable activities (e.g.
green, health, care,
education, knowledge,
culture)
Training in the skills
required for sustainable
activities.
Support for innovation in
these activities
More equality
Shifts in consumption
and saving patterns
Shifts in use of time and
work-life balance
Place/Environment
Short Term
Public-public financial instruments
Take advantage of lower land and
property prices
Protect/bring forward key
regeneration projects
Protect basic services
Delay, cut back non essentials
Environmental Pilots
Sustainable building, transport,
energy, water and waste
Low Carbon
Economy
and Green Jobs
Long Term
BRIC-led economic recovery?
 Economic growth in


100
50
Source: PwC, 2009
a
Os
ak
Pa
ris
LA
ia
elp
h
ky
o
rk
Top 8 emerging economy and Top 8 advanced economy cities
Ph
ila
d
To
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go
w
Ne
on
ica
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Lo
nd
s
os
co
w
Ai
re
no
s
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e
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Ci
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lo
o
Pa
u
ex
ic
M
an
bu
l
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o
Is t
Ja
de
M
um
ba
i
ne
iro
0
Ri
o

150
ng
ha
i

& institutional)
Prospect of 2014 World
Cup and 2016 Olympics
Booming residential
sector
Increasing middle class
Infrastructure is poor
% cumulative real GDP growth: 2008-25
 Structural reforms (fiscal
Cumulative GDP Growth
2008-2025 (megacities)
200
Sh
a
BRIC countries
 Brazil
250
City-level carbon emissions and
energy consumption
 Cities account for about 80% of carbon emissions globally.
 Consumption and not population growth is important (Satthethwaite)
 Middle and upper-income households are key
Futures studies – the role of
the city (key drivers)
 Demographics
 Economic
 Governance
 Environmental
 Societal (lifestyle)
 Technological
City Scale Focus – why?
 Existing powers of
municipal and city
governments give
greater potential
traction
 Concentration means
better technological
potential
 More rapid diffusion
 Spin-off benefits
(source, Lankao, 2008)
Towards ‘Regenerative Development’
‘Paradigm
Shift’
Regenerative
Development:
40+ yrs
Integrated
Sustainability
Eco-Efficiency
5+ yrs
The City as a
‘Metabolism’
Business as
Usual
Today
Time
(Source: adapted from Ministry of Environment, NZ Government)
World Bank Eco2 Programme
 City-based approach
 Expanded platform for
collaborative design and
decision-making
 One-system approach
 Investment framework that
values sustainability and
resilience
 ‘Ecological modernization’
issues??
Low Carbon Economy
 A future vision for low
carbon infrastructure
 Need for private
investment and
balance between
public/private debt
 Stronger market
signals for carbon
emissions
 UK Core Cities
Public Debt (% of GDP)
UK=68.5%
Brazil=46.8%
Source: CIA
Financing Issues: an Investment
Gap?
 Cities the problem and the
solution? –shift expenditure
 Need to develop innovative
financing models to retrofit
cities: e.g. value capture; PPPs;
‘green’ bonds/funds
 More local power and
leadership capacity at city-level
 Appropriate governance
structures
 Improved skills and technology
deployment
‘BAU’=$350 trillion
Additional $22 trillion needed in green
investment (Booz / WWF, 2010)
Key Issues-to 2050?
 How will property markets in Brazilian cities evolve?
 Real estate investment
 Nature of housing markets and demand: future growth and
development?
 Issue of brownfields
 Ecological modernisation/sustainable urban development –
does this model really fit Brazilian cities?
 How can climate change adaptation and mitigation be financed?
 What are the outcomes for cities – governance, institutions and
impact on people?
 Learning from Brazilian cities?
 Clean Development Mechanism
 Climate Action Plan (Sao Paulo)
 Others: grants/taxes?