Transcript russia

Russia in the
East Asian
Context
4 of the world’s 10 most populous countries
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China: 1,286 bln. (No.1)
USA: 290 mln. (No.3)
Russia: 145 mln. (No.7)
Japan: 127 mln. (No.10)
GDP, PPP, US$:
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USA – 10.5 trln.
China – 6 trln.
Japan – 3.6 trln.
Russia – 1.4 trln.
Data for 2001
Four Great Powers
 2 maritime – Japan, US
 2 continental – China, Russia
Maritime as challengers
Continental as status-quo
 20th century - 2 communist, 2 capitalist
 3 of the 4 (Japan, Russia, China) underwent repeated rapid
modernizations in the past 150 years
 Japan fought the 3 others, ultimately lost
 Russia-China-US: have been both competitors and allies
 The 2 withdrawals of Russia’s power
 Economics and security
 The legacy of wars:
The absence of a peace treaty between Russia and Japan
The unresolved Korean problems
The problem of Taiwan
CHINA
 The former (and future?) regional superpower
 The long decline of China
 Imperialist expansion in East Asia
Russia
Britain
US
Germany
Japan
 The 20th century:
Clashes of empires: Russia-Japan, Japan-US,
Japan-Britain
The 2 communist revolutions:
Russia, 1917
China, 1949
 China’s revival:
Revolution
Independence
Modernization
Balance of power strategies
Potential regional hegemony, based primarily on
economic power
RUSSIA
th
th
 The easy expansion to the Pacific (17 -20 centuries)
 Trade over security
 Taking advantage of China’s decline
 The fatal clash with Japan, 1904-1905
 The communist transformation (modernization, security,
ideology, geopolitics)
 Alliance with China (since the 1920s)
 Support of Chinese Communists
 WW2: Alliance with the US and China against Japan
 Cold War: Alliance with China against US and Japan
 1950s: the apex of Russia’s influence in the region
 1960s-1970s: conflict with China, detente with the US
 Late 1970s-1980s: US and China contain Russia
 Late 1980s-2000s: Russia turns inward, exits geopolitical
competition, improves relations with US, China, Japan,
undergoes transition crisis
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What explains the ebb and flow of Russia’s power?
JAPAN
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The Meiji Revolution
Emergence from isolation
Modernization
The 1905 victory and the rise of imperialism
The 1945 defeat and post-imperial modernization
The Cold War alliance with the US
Economic competition with the US
Geopolitical uncertainties
Interests in China and Russia
Security concerns
USA
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Manifest Destiny and Open Door: Pacific expansion,
economic and military tools
Collusion and collision with Japan
The alliance with Russia against Japan
The apex of American power: 1945
The Communist challenge
The defeat in Vietnam
The US-China alignment against Russia
The Japanese economic challenge
The end of the Cold War: new US hegemony, East Asian
counterbalances
The Chinese challenge to US
6 bilateral relationships: patterns and trends
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Russia-China
USA-Japan
Russia-USA
Russia-Japan
USA-China
China-Japan
Assess each relationship in each of the 3 areas on a
scale from +5 (highly cooperative) to -5 (highly
competitive)
China-Russia
China-US
China-Japan
Russia-US
Russia-Japan
Japan-US
SECURITY
ECONOMY
IDEOLOGY
threats, military
potentials, nature
of cooperation
resources,
markets,
capitals
role of the state in
society and
economy
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For each country, it is important:
Not to allow a hostile combination of the others
 To maintain good relations with the 3 others
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Competition vs. cooperation
Sources of competition
 Factors for cooperation
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