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What Resources Matter to the Chemical Industry ? Coal, Gas, Oil Electricity (Hydro, nuclear or above) Water (solvent, coolant) Human Resources IP Metals (Fe ….. Rh) Nonmetals (Chlorine, Bromine …. Selenium) Minerals (CaMgCO3, Phosphates, Potassium…) Reality Check I: Are we becoming more oil dependent ? Tons of oil / Mio Euro of GDP (Germany) Reality Check II: Are Commodities becoming Rare ? Reality Check III: How about the Future (2005) Reality Check III: How about the Future (2005) Who digs Metals & Minerals ? How are metals classified ? • Iron (CVRD) • Base metals: Al, Cu, Zn, Pb, Ni • Precious Metals Ag, Au, Pd, Pt Precious Metal Prices (US $ / ounce) 4500 4000 US $ / ounce 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Ag Ru Ir Os Pd Au Re Pt Rh Precious Metal Prices US $ / ounce 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 Pt Au Pd Os 2000 1500 1000 Ir 500 Ru Ag 0 1 Rh Base Metal Prices (US $ / pound) April 2006 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Pb Al Zn Cu Ni U Metals And Minerals: Zinc • Brass (Cu-Zn alloy) known in Assyria & Babylon • Up to 1800 exclusively mined in India, current mines in China, Canada, Japan, Australia Korea • Byproduct of Pb, Cu, Ag mining • 50 % used in galvanization (corrosion inhibition) • 20 % used for brass • Essential metal with no substitutes ! Metals And Minerals: Zinc • Demand > supply, new mines planned in Bolivia, China • Largest producer: Teck-Cominco (Canada) • World production 10.3 Mio tons (2004), up 6% from 2003 • Price expected to rise due to lack of new mines & steeply rising demand from India/China (China Jan-Jul 2005: 67,000 t compared to 15,000 in 2004) Zinc Prices Zinc Inventory Metals And Minerals: Nickel • No technical use up to 1850 • At present 70 % used for stainless steel • Largest producers: Norilsk Nickel (RUS) Inco (CAN), Australia 1.2 Mio tons (2004) Supply growing 5 % annually • Worldwide demand for stainless steel growing 5% annually Vosey's Bay, Inco planned for 2006: 60,000 t real production 2006 12,000 t Ravensthorpe (AUS) 50,000 /y 2007 Nickel Prices Nickel Inventory Metals And Minerals: Pt - Pd • Pt First described by Italian Humanist Caesar Scaliger but known to South American Indians before that. • Usual product of Cu and Ni refining but pure Pt mines exist in South Africa • Largest consumer: Car Catalysts, Ostwald Process • Largest producer: Anglo Platinum • 80 % of Pt from S.A., tendency rising, Russian Production falling • 50 % of Pd from Russia • 850 $ /ounce Pt (Apr 2004: 994, 24 y high) • 170 $ /ounce Pd Metals And Minerals: Cu • 16.5 Mio t 2005. Largest Producer: Codelco (Chile) • Producing countries US > CAN > Zaire, Sambia, Poland • Indispensable electrical conductor (only Ag, Au are better) • Currently trading at all time high • No general agreement on price development Price predicted to fall in 2007 but rise again 2009 • Cu in Chile: 40 % of exports, 9 % of GDP • Escondida mine is 20 % of Chile’s coppper and 2.5 % of Chiles • Supports 10,000 jobs • Electrolytic Copper refining Copper Prices Copper Inventory Silver • Historical corellation with gold price weakening • Small market 10 % of Gold, strong price fluctuations Sideproduct of Ni, Pb, Cu, Au mining other mining activities Mexico, Peru, Australia, China, Poland 40 % industrial use (mainly electroncis, 30 jewlery, 25 % Photograp Increasing demand (electronics) declining reserves, no newmines Current reserves last a 5 years, 2011 Largest Producers Rio Tinto (GB), BHP Minerals (AUS) End of film photography price drop, but slowly rising since 1998 Currently 6 - 7 $ /ounce Solar Energy - Silicon Prejudice 1. Not enough area Example Germany: Roof area 800 km2 = 175 TWh (Conversion 13.5%) = 33 % of current electricity use Prejudice 2: Too expensive • Doubling of production capacity reducess price by 20 % • Break even point with current oil/gas prices I this decade Prejudice 3: Negative energy balance • Current solar cells require 7 y to recover energy costs • Lifetime > 30 y • New energy saving photovoltaics (organic dyes) on horizon Solar Energy - Cost Analysis 2004 to 2050 • Solar electricity currently more expensive than fossil electricity • Breakeven: 2011 (Germany) even earlier in California, Spain (China, India) California, 12 pm: $ 0.8 conventional - $ 0.4 solar • Will depend on political decisions (no incentive = baseline) Solar Energy - Some Hard Facts • Annual growth: 25-30 % • $ 7 Billion (2004) up from 4.7 Billion (2003) • Expected 2010: $ 40 Billion (MKD: China ? India ?) • Demand for S.Cells outstrips supply (!) • Bottleneck: Supply of pure Si • Demand for Solar Si surpassed electronic Si in 2005 Installation (2004) • Germany 300 MW • Japan 280 MW • US 90 MW (booo) Largest Players: 1. Sharp (Japan) 2. BP (UK) 3. Solarworld (Germany) - Best of breed 4. Q-Cells (Germany Solar Energy - The Market in 2006 Global revenues (2003) : $ 4.7 Bn US Solar energy: 40 % global market (1997) 13 % global market (2003) •Solar energies daily profile matches demand (!) • Rating of solar installations in kWp (kilpo Watt peak) • mono- or polycrystalline silicon dominant materials • Direct current, has to be changed to alternating current Munich Terminal 2 - 450 MWh electricity = 400 t CO2 / year Large Consumers Mio t Comsumption Production US PRC JP RUS GER IND BRAS