Transcript climate change

WHAT IS NEW : PERCEPTION & POLITICS
•NATIONAL ACTION PROGRAMMES
•SHIFTS IN GROWTH PATHWAYS WOULD
RESULT IN AVOIDANCE OF EMISSIONS, NOT
THE OTHER WAY ROUND
•MEASURED IN TERMS OF DEVIATION FROM
BUSINESS AS USUAL EMISSIONS
•EFFICIENCY IN THE USE OF ENERGY,
WATER, RESOURCES; AGRICULTURE &
HEALTH RESEARCH; NEW KNOWLEDGE
EVIDENCE: BURDEN SHARING
• The additional cost of building
integrated gasification combined cycle
(IGCC) coal fired plants in China
instead of more conventional plants
has been estimated by the US National
Academy of Sciences to be $190 billion
• China has only 13 per cent of the
number of cars in the US, with a
population that is four times larger.
EVIDENCE:HUMAN WELL BEING
• In developing countries three quarters
of the electricity generated goes for
industrial production and any reduction
in emissions will have a direct impact
on economic growth, unlike in
developed countries where
consumption by households accounts
for two-thirds of the electricity
generated, and reductions will impact
only on lifestyles
GLOBAL PLAN TO CHANGE
THE NATURE OF GROWTH
• HISTORICAL RESPONSIBILITY OF
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES TO REDUCE
EMISSIONS
• DEVELOPING COUNTRIES RESPONSIBILITY
FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH
EMISSIONS REDUCTION AS A RESULT
• ENABLED BY TRANSFER OF TECHNOLOGY
AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES
SHARED VISION
• EQUAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
POTENTIAL FOR ALL COUNTRIES
• SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ALONE WILL
DELIVER THE DESIRED RESULTS –
MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION
• SHIFTS IN ECONOMIC GROWTH PATHWAYS
– PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION
PATTERNS
• INNOVATION INSTEAD OF REGULATION
BALANCE OF RIGHTS AND
OBLIGATIONS OF COUNTRIES
DEVELOPING COUNTRY COMMITMENTS
ARE ENABLED AND/OR SUPPORTED
BY TRANSFERS OF FINANCE (1% GDP)
AND
TECHNOLOGY (REVIEW IPR REGIME)
BALANCE BETWEEN THE ROLE
OF STATE,MARKETS AND
CITIZENS
• INDUSTRIALISATION AND/OR PER CAPITA
CONSUMPTION AS THE CAUSE OF THE
PROBLEM
• ELIMINATION OF TRADE BARRIERS AND/OR
STATE SUPPORT AS INCENTIVES TO THE
PRIVATE SECTOR
• NEEDS FOR HUMAN WELLBEING AND/OR
ACHIEVING A LOW CARBON SOCIETY
SHIFTS IN KNOWLEDGE
• An independent evaluation of the World
Bank’s support for environmental
sustainability over the past 15 years
concluded that insufficient attention
had been paid to longer term
sustainable development ……
transitioning towards a low carbon
economy coupled with expanding clean
and affordable energy access to the
poor
SHIFTS IN PERSPECTIVES
• The United Nations ‘Human Development
Report, 2007/8, Fighting Climate Change:
Human Solidarity in a Divided World’,
concludes that the “fundamental challenge is
the way we think about progress. …..carbon
intensive economic growth is symptomatic
of a deeper problem…that the economic
model which drives growth, and the
profligate consumption in rich countries that
goes with it, is unsustainable”.
WAY FORWARD
• Response to the shift in economic power and
demand has largely been of a scarcity
mentality seen as a zero-sum game, rather
than development of a shared vision where
everyone can become better off.
• patterns of resource use would have to be
common for all countries, with focus on
incease in productivity of resource use
• No single solution – new technologies and
behavioral change will play a key role
NEW COMMITMENTS
CAP AND TRADE: 50 - 80% EMISSIONS
REDUCTION BY 2050
DEVIATION FROM BUSINESS AS USUAL
EMISSIONS, THAT COULD BE ENHANCED BY
FINANCE AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER
CONSIDERATION OF ADAPTATION NEEDS
AND NATIONAL ACTION PLANS
EVIDENCE: TRENDS IN
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
• Emissions from industrial emissions have
been steady since 1992, and any global
standard in steel and cement sectors
would be based on levels they have
already achieved.
• The Energy Information Administration has
predicted that coal would provide 57 per
cent of US electrical power production in
2030, up from 51 per cent today
SHIFTS IN UNDERSTANDING
• the “only serious defensible principle is
equal emission rights per capita, adjusted
for past emissions…. as a process of
slowly easing in emission rights would
increase inequities associated with past
emissions….only through changes in
patterns of demand will adverse effects
on developing countries be mitigated” .
•
Stiglitz – address to the International Economics Association 2008
SHIFTS IN THE ECONOMY
• The International Energy Agency points out that in
developed countries technological and lifestyle changes
combined with higher incomes have significantly altered
energy use patterns since the Convention was
negotiated, with over two-thirds of carbon dioxide
emissions now coming from the services, households
and travel sectors.
• Between 1990-2004, energy consumption has increased
by 50% in the services sector, by 35% in households,
and by 25% in transportation, as a result final energy use
- and emissions of carbon dioxide - have each increased
by 14 %
• The citizen is the driver of emissions of GHG
SHIFTS IN RESEARCH
• According to the IPCC the adverse impacts of
climate change will fall disproportionately on
developing countries
• McKinsey research shows that the growth of
worldwide energy demand can be cut in half or
more over the next 15 years, without reducing
the benefits that energy’s end-users enjoy - and
while supporting economic growth – by
focussing on demand side management
SHIFTS IN ASSESSMENTS
• “the times when it was possible to sweeten
a deal for developing countries with
placebo funds and voluntary declarations
have irrevocably past” (Benito Muller, Oxford Institute for
energy studies)
• CDM has not led to real reductions or
transfer of technology (Victor and Ward)
• Sustainability has not as yet become a
part of business strategy (Arthur D. Little research)