Transcript Land Redistribution

Land Redistribution:
Towards a common vision
Why do we care about land redistribution
today?
Part I: Messages from WDR 2008,
“Agriculture for Development”
Part II: Implications of WDR 2008 strategy
for access to land and land redistribution
1
Part I. World Development Report 2008
Agriculture for Development
Preliminary version in progress
“75% of the
world’s poor are
rural and most
are involved in
farming.
Agriculture
remains a
fundamental
instrument for
sustainable
development and
poverty
reduction” 2
WDR 2008-Agriculture for Development
Storyline
1. Agriculture remains fundamental for development,
and differentially by context,
2. But the powers of agriculture are often under-used.
3. There are new opportunities to use agriculture that
open multiple pathways out of poverty,
4. With new (and lingering) challenges to be addressed,
5. Requiring differentiated agendas and improved
governance.
3
Premise one: There are three worlds for the roles
of agriculture in growth and poverty
0.8
BDI
Agriculture-based
countries
Poverty data from Ravallion et al. 2007
Other predicted poverty data
RWA
Dynamic analysis
0.6
MWI
CMR
Agriculture's contribution to growth, 1990-2005
SDN
PRY
BEN
NER
NGA
0.4
GHA
BGR
AZE
PNG
TZA
TGO
India
(1965-94)
CIV
ETH
SY R
MDG
ZMB
HND
0.2
PHL
BRA
90-96
VEN
RUS
Brazil CZE
(1970-96)
CHL
0.0
MEX
SLV
TUR
ECU
ZAF
POL
HUN
GIN MLI
PAK
BFA
AGO
Y EM
IRN
KHM
GTM
MAR
ROM
70-75
MY S
COL
BLR
IDN
EGY
NPL
UGA
TCD
BGD
BOL
DOM
SVK
KEN
MOZ
DZA
SEN
PER
UKR
ARG
LAO
VNM
IND
TUN
THA
Indone s ia
(1970-96)
LKA
China
(1981-2001)
CHN
ZAR
TJK
Transforming
countries
ZWE
Urbanized countries
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Rural poor/total poor, 2002
0.8
1.0
4
Premise two: There is deep heterogeneity across
areas, households, and intra-household
Favored vs marginal areas
Agro-ecology, market access, growth-poverty
Household heterogeneity
Smallholders: Market-oriented vs subsistence
Rural non-farm enterprises: low vs. high productivity
Labor markets: high vs low skills
Migration: out of vs. into poverty
Intra-household differences
Gender roles, access to assets
Differentiated impacts of a policy; and differentiated
policies in using agriculture for development
5
Three functions for agriculture in development
First function: A source of aggregate growth for
the agriculture-based countries
Why/how can agriculture (and agroindustry) be a source of
aggregate growth for the agriculture-based countries (SubSaharan Africa)?
A large sector: 29% of GDP, 65% of labor force
With limited tradability (due to commodity specificity, transactions
costs), must invest in agriculture as domestic production determines the
price of food and wage costs
Where tradable, current comparative advantage in primary sectors
based on resource endowments, weak investment climate for industry
Multiplier effects of agricultural growth on other sectors
Note: With limited tradability, domestic production contributes importantly
to food security.
6
Second function: A source of livelihoods for
many,
but (1) a huge reservoir of poverty
Urban Poverty
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
million people
million people
Rural Poverty
SA
SSA
EAP
1993
LAC
2002
ECA
MENA
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SA
SSA
EAP
1993
LAC
ECA
MENA
2003
3 billion rural people, 2.5 billion agricultural population, 1.3 billion
agricultural labor force, 800 million smallholder population
2.1 billion rural poor ($2/day), 900 million extreme rural poor ($1/day)7
(2) With rising rural-urban income disparities
in the transforming countries which are a
source of political tensions
Ratio of urban to rural median income
3.5
3
2.5
Initial year
End year
2
1.5
1
Guatemala Thailand Cambodia
China
Vietnam Indonesia Bangladesh
India
Pakistan
1989-2002 1990-2002 1997-2004 1985-2001 1992-2001 1993-2002 1991-2000 1989-1999 1999-2001
The ratio of median urban to rural income has been rising in transforming
8
countries
Expenditure gains induced by 1%
GDP growth (%)
But agricultural growth has unique powers for
poverty reduction
7
6
A griculture
Nonagriculture
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1 Low est
-2
2
3
4
5
6
7
Expenditure deciles
8
9
Highest
GDP growth from agriculture benefits the poorest half 4 times more than
9
GDP growth from non-agriculture
3 worlds, 3 functions of agriculture for development
Message 1
Accelerating aggregate growth in the agriculturebased countries (Sub-Saharan Africa) requires achieving a
productivity revolution in smallholder farming
Message 2
Addressing the disparity problem in transforming
countries requires a comprehensive approach to shift
to high value agriculture, extend the green revolution to
lagging regions, decentralize economic activity to rural
areas, and help people move out of agriculture
Urbanized countries: including smallholders in modern food markets
10
and creating good rural jobs
Third function: An important user and often mis-user of
natural resources
Percent of total GHG emissions
80%
Developing countries
62.9%
Developed countries
60%
40%
15.4%
20%
11.4%
6.6%
3.8%
0%
Energy
Agriculture
(excluding land
use change)
Deforestation
Industrial
processes
Waste
Agriculture uses 85% of water withdrawals and causes most of deforestation in
developing countries
11
Contributes to global warming: 21% (up to 35%) of Green House Gas emissions
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
1979
3.5
2.5
1.5
0.5
-0.5
-1.5
-2.5
1982
1985
1988
1991
GDP growth (annual %)
1994
1997
2000
Rainfall variability (%)
GDP growth (%)
The high cost of weather dependency:
The importance of climate proofing
Rainfall
Zimbabwe’s GDP closely tracks rainfall under normal conditions
12
Message 3
Development an environment have become
inextricably coupled
Reducing agriculture’s large environmental footprint
is an inevitable requirement for success, climate
proofing of the farming systems of the poor is urgent,
and providing environmental services can be one of
the development contributions of agriculture
Key for this are removing perverse input subsidies, better
definition of property rights, wider use of conservation
technologies, devolution to communities of control over
common property resources, research and investments for
farming system resilience, and developing markets for
13
environmental services
WDR 2008-Agriculture for Development
1. Agriculture remains fundamental for development,
and differentially by context
2. But the powers of agriculture are often under-used:
why?
3. There are new opportunities to use agriculture that
open multiple pathways out of poverty
4. With new (and lingering) challenges to be addressed
5. Differentiated agendas and improved governance
14
Under-use as global trade distortions remain pervasive
-21
Cotton
-15
Oilseed
-12
-27
Cotton
-34
Oilseed
Dairy products
-7
-7
Other grains
-5
Wheat
-4
Processed meat
-4
Rice
-3
Sugar
Real international commodity prices have
been suppressed by current global trade
policies
(% of undistorted price)
Dairy products
-5
-21
Course grains
Wheat
-18
Processed meat
-2
-9
Rice
Sugar
Trade share losses to developing countries
due to current global trade policies
(% point loss to developing country trade
15
shares)
Nominal rate of assistance (percent)
Under-use as taxation of agriculture exports remains
high in the agriculture-based and transforming countries
30
Exportables
20
10
5
0
-10
-16
-20
-25
-19
-26
-30
-40
-50
1980-84
-49
Agriculture-based
Transforming
2000-04
Urbanized
Net taxation in the agriculture-based countries: 26% (1980-84) --> 10% (2000-04)
16
Under-use as public spending on agriculture is low
in the agriculture-based countries relative to the
share of agriculture in GDP
Public spending on Ag/Ag GDP
Ag GDP/GDP
35
29
2004
16
17
1980
2004
14
24
25
percent
1980
29
12
12
20
16
15
percent
30
18
14
10
10
10
11
8
6
4
5
10
4
4
2
0
0
Agriculture-based
Transforming
Urbanized
Agriculture-based
Transforming
Urbanized
Transforming countries in 1980 had a much higher share of public spending on
agriculture as a share of Ag GDP (10%) than the agriculture-based countries do today
(4%) even though they had similar shares of agriculture in GDP 17
Mis-use is also pervasive:
Subsidies are now four times larger than public
investment in Indian agriculture
7
Percentage of AgGDP
6
5
Subsidies
4
3
2
Public Investment
1
0
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
18
100
90
80
14
% rural poverty
12
10
70
60
50
40
30
8
6
4
% ODA to Ag
20
10
% ODA to agriculture
% poverty in rural areas
Under-use as donor support to agriculture has
declined while rural poverty remained dominant
2
-
0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
With turning pointin ODA to agriculture after 2004
19
WDR 2008-Agriculture for Development
1. Agriculture remains fundamental for development,
and differentially by context
2. But the powers of agriculture are often under-used
3. There are new opportunities to use agriculture that
open multiple pathways out of poverty
4. With new (and lingering) challenges to be addressed
5. Differentiated agendas and improved governance
20
New opportunities to use agriculture
for development last 25 years
Improved macro-economic conditions favorable to
agricultural growth in SS-Africa
Dynamic demand for a “new agriculture” of high value
products and non-traditional exports; expanding regional
markets for staple foods
Institutional innovations: land administration, financial
services, governance, producer organizations
Technological innovations: yields and resistance, IT,
conservation agriculture, GMOs, breeds and vaccines
Expanding sources of income in the rural non-farm economy
21
Opportunities: New actors and new roles
A redefined role for the state and a new commitment to
agriculture (NEPAD 10%)
Regulation, decentralization, and partnerships
Increasing role of the private and corporate sectors
Agribusiness and the supermarket revolution
Thickening of civil society
Rapid increase in producer organizations, role NGOs
A renewed donor interest in agriculture and new
philanthropy
 New opportunities for public-private-civil society
partnerships in using agriculture for development, and
a new political economy
22
Conclude: Opportunities open multiple pathways
out of poverty for rural households
Pathways out of poverty: not by agriculture alone
Smallholder farming
Agricultural wage employment; wage and selfemployment in the rural non-farm economy
Migration and remittances
Recognize important gender dimensions to each
pathway at the household level
23
Message 4
Toward a comprehensive approach
The new opportunities for agriculture open
multiple pathways out of poverty for rural
populations as commercial smallholders,
workers in agriculture and the rural non-farm
economy, and migrants. It is also providing
opportunities to improve the livelihoods and
food security of large numbers of subsistence
farmers and unskilled farm workers
24
WDR 2008-Agriculture for Development
1. Agriculture remains fundamental for development,
and differentially by context
2. But the powers of agriculture are often under-used
3. There are new opportunities to use agriculture that
open multiple pathways out of poverty
4. With new (and lingering) challenges to be addressed
5. Differentiated agendas and improved governance
25
Improving governance to implement
agriculture-for-development agendas
Weakness of governance as a hurdle
Governance weakest in agriculture-based countries
Governance weak in agriculture vs other sectors
Global governance needed for successful national agendas, but deficient
Improving governance at national, local, and global levels
National and local: Inter-sectoral coordination, Min of Ag., decentralization
Global: Coordinate sectoral agencies for complex and inter-related issues
(trade, poverty and security, climate change, health, IPGs)
Coordinate with new corporate and philanthropic actors
Message 5: Using agriculture for development requires fixing the
current serious deficiencies in local, national, and global
governance for agriculture
26
WDR 2008-Agriculture for Development
1. Agriculture remains fundamental for development,
and differentially by context
2. But the powers of agriculture are often under-used
3. There are new opportunities to use agriculture that
open multiple pathways out of poverty
4. With new (and lingering) challenges to be addressed
5. Requiring differentiated agendas and improved
governance.
27
From opportunities to objectives: a policy diamond
Socio political context
Governance
Macro fundamentals
Agricultural policy
Demand for
Ag products
2
Enhance smallholder
competitiveness
Facilitate market entry
1
Access to markets
Establish efficient value chain
Pathways out of
poverty: farming,
labor, migration
Social transition
Demand for
Ag products
4
Increase employment in
agriculture and the RNFE;
enhance skills
Social transition
3
Improve livelihoods in
subsistence agriculture and
low skill rural occupations
With indicators for
diagnostic, monitoring,
and evaluation 28
Part II: Implications of WDR 2008 strategy
for access to land and land redistribution
1. First function of agriculture for development:
Growth in agriculture-based countries
Access to land for market entry: Shift from
subsistence farming to commercial smallholder
Land reform
•
•
Land redistribution
Subsidies to land purchase: LMALR
Land markets
•
•
Land sales market
Land rental market
29
Enhance the competitiveness of commercial
smallholders
Security of property rights: certification of rights
(Mexico, Ethiopia), customary tenure, conflict
resolution, modern land administration
Determinants of total factor productivity
Level playing fields for smallholder competitiveness
Economies of scale and market access: producer
organizations
--> The challenge of “complete” land reforms
30
2. Second function of agriculture for
development: Poverty reduction value of access
to land
Commercial smallholder pathway
Subsistence farming as platform for diversified
household income strategy (RNFE, migration)
Land markets for exit/entry flexibility:
• Shift to work in the rural nonfarm economy
• Seasonal and permanent migration
• Role of social safety nets as complements to markets
(distress sales)
31
3. Third function of agriculture for development:
Environmental sustainability and provision of
environmental services
Beyond poverty and land mining (role of farm
size, water control): long term view (discount rate)
Property rights and markets for
environmental services: common property
resources, devolution, capacity to manage, local
and global markets for services
Resilience of farming systems: climate proofing
and adjustment to energy prices
32