Transcript Mozambique: Community Land Delimitation and Development

AGRICULTURE FOR
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
IN AFRICA
FOR CHINA AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY
1
Guo Li
The World Bank
June 16, 2011
OUTLINE

A brief introduction of the World Bank.

Challenges and opportunities for Africa’s Agriculture.

What can agriculture do for Africa’s development?

Options for moving forward.

Can Africa do it?

Concluding remarks.
2
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
FOR AFRICA’S AGRICULTURE
Daunting Challenges (2004-2006 data):
1.
2.
3.
4.
Projected cereal deficit
Sub Saharan Africa
Poverty incidence 41% (US$1 per day, EAP:
9%; LAC 9%; SAP: 31%;)
32% population undernourished (EAP: 12%;
LAC: 10%; SAP: 21%);
70% of poverty in agriculture;
Projected food deficit (e.g., food aid per capita
4 times as other regions);
45
40
35
Million Tons

30
25
20
15
10
5
0
5.
Only region with projected increased
numbers of malnutrition children (under 5
years old) in coming two decades.
Obviously, agriculture sector performs poorly.
2000
(actual)
2030
(projected)
3
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
FOR AFRICA’S AGRICULTURE

Opportunities:
1.
Remarkable progress in recent years
(macroeconomic growth, policy reforms, higher level
of social and political stability, etc.)
2.
Abundant natural resources (12 times the land area
of India with only 2/3 as many people to feed);
3.
Growing domestic and regional food markets (due to
urbanization, population growth, etc.);
4.
Equitable land distribution by international
standards (with a few exceptions);
4
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
FACING AFRICA

Opportunities:
5.
Stronger political commitment
to agriculture (e.g., 2003’s
Comprehensive African
Agricultural Development
Program, CAADP);
6.
Technological advances and
improved incentives for
agricultural investment;
7.
New market opportunities for
farmers due to food price
increase and biofuels demand .
5
WHAT CAN AGRICULTURE DO FOR
AFRICA’S DEVELOPMENT?
Three Worlds of Agriculture
6
WHAT CAN AGRICULTURE DO FOR
AFRICA’S DEVELOPMENT?
Characteristics of three country types, 2005
7
WHAT CAN AGRICULTURE DO FOR
AFRICA’S DEVELOPMENT?
In Sub-Saharan Africa, agriculture is essential to:
1.
Overall economic growth;
2.
Reducing mass poverty;
3.
Food insecurity; and
4.
Providing environmental services.
Therefore, promoting agriculture development
should be a center piece of the continent’s
development agenda.
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WHAT CAN AGRICULTURE DO FOR
AFRICA’S DEVELOPMENT?
1. As to overall economic growth, in Agriculturebased countries, which are mainly SSA countries,
agriculture





Generates about 29% of GDP;
Creates 65% employment;
Accounts for 32% of GDP growth.
Productivity determines the price of food, then
determines wage costs, and then the competitiveness
of the tradable sectors; and
SSA’s comparative advantages for many years to come.
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WHAT CAN AGRICULTURE DO FOR
AFRICA’S DEVELOPMENT?
2. Effective mass poverty reduction
tool

Global poverty rate declining from
1993 (28%) to 2002 (22%) was
mainly the result of falling rural
poverty;

International experiences show
that GDP growth originating in
agriculture is at least twice as
effective in reducing poverty as
GDP growth originating outside
agriculture (China, 3.5 times; LAC,
2.7 times, similar pattern found in
Ghana).
GDP growth originating in
agriculture benefits the poorest half
of the population sustainably more
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WHAT CAN AGRICULTURE DO FOR
AFRICA’S DEVELOPMENT?
3. Improving food insecurity:

Agriculture production is important for food
security. Increasing and stabilizing domestic food
production is the best way to deal with external
risks and market uncertainties.
4. Environmental services:

Current issues: agriculture is the largest user of
water, contributing to water scarcity, it is a major
player in underground water depletion,
agrochemcial pollution, accounting for 30% of
greenhouse gas emissions.
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OPTIONS FOR MOVING FORWARD
1.
Political commitment should be strong;
2.
Significantly increase investment in agriculture
related R&D;
3.
Accelerate the rural infrastructure construction
(e.g, road, water, etc); and
4.
Make smallholders more productive and
sustainable through developing markets of
credit, inputs, and promoting regional
integration.
12
OPTIONS FOR MOVING FORWARD
1.
Political commitment to agriculture sector
should be strong


In early 2000s, after a long period negligence, key
African leaders began to shift attention to the
agriculture sector. However, AU leaders had
committed to agriculture before (1980).
Observed excessively tax agriculture and
underinvestment in agriculture reflecting a political
economy in which urban interests have the upper
hand.
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OPTIONS FOR MOVING FORWARD
2.
Significantly increase investment in agriculture
related R&D



Although with a high IRR (43%), both global and
national failures of markets and governance lead to
serious underinvestment in agriculture R&D;
While China and India tripled their R&D over the
past 20 years, SSA only increased by barely 20%
(declining in about half of the countries).
Together with other factors, we observed a
widening yield gap for cereals with the rest of the
World.
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OPTIONS FOR MOVING FORWARD
2.
Significantly increase investment in agriculture
related R&D
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OPTIONS FOR MOVING FORWARD
3.
Accelerate the rural
infrastructure construction


Rural infrastructure in
today’s Africa is only a
fraction of that Asia had
available (today’s road density:
3-4km/1000 Km2 in Ethiopia,
Mali; 50-70 in Namibia; but
388 in India in early 1990s);
In Africa, only 4% of the area
in production is under
irrigation, compared with 39%
in South Asia and 29% in East
Asia.
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OPTIONS FOR MOVING FORWARD
4.
Make smallholders more productive and
sustainable through developing markets of
inputs and credit, promoting producers’
organizations, and accelerating regional
integration.


In the case of seed and fertilizer, market failures
continue to be pervasive in Africa, due to high
transaction cost, risks, and economies of scale;
Market-smart approaches to jump-starting
agricultural input markets include targeted
vouchers to enable farmers to purchase inputs and
stimulate demand in private markets;
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OPTIONS FOR MOVING FORWARD
4.
Make smallholders more productive and
sustainable



Improve access to financial services and reduce
exposures to uninsured risks;
Collective action by producer organizations can reduce
transaction costs in market, achieve some market
power, and increase representation in national and
international policy forums. For smallholders,
producer organizations are essential to achieve
competitiveness.
More open intraregional trade among African countries
offers important opportunities for exploiting different
comparative advantages, achieving greater scale
economies, stabilizing food supplies facing weather
shocks, as global warming continues.
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OPTIONS FOR MOVING FORWARD
Of course, there are other important options, such as

Education: reality-- average 4 years for rural adult male;
3 years for rural adult females in SSA, SA, and MENA;

Health: e.g., HIV/AIDS, greatly reduces agricultural
productivity (in rural Zambia, population declines have
been especially severe for young rural adjusts: 19 % of
people 15-24 years old in 1990, the most productive age,
are estimated to have died by 2000).
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CAN AFRICA DO IT?
If other regions can, why NOT Africa?
1. China’s rural development in past 30 years
1980
1995
2007
30 years average
annual growth rate
(%)
452
5958
25148
9.8
Agriculture output
(billion yuan, CP)
19
203
489
6.1
Farmers’ per capita
income (yuan, CP)
191
1577
4140
7.1
Grain production
(million tons)
321
467
502
1.7
Rural migrant
labors in off-farm
jobs (million)
20
127
250
n.a.
Number of poor
(million and %)
250
(31%)
65
(7%)
21
(3%)
n.a.
GDP
(billion yuan, CP)
CP: current price.
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CAN AFRICA DO IT?
1. Decline of poverty in China
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CAN AFRICA DO IT?
2. Decline of poverty in India
22
CAN AFRICA DO IT?
3. Brazilian Cerrado:
Pre-1970: Remote region,
poor soils, low population,
stagnant agriculture
1970s, 80s: Transformation
led by public investments in
R&D, infrastructure, credit;
emphasis on large-scale
systems
Post-1990: Private sector-led
boom built on exports
(soybeans, maize, cotton,
cattle); reduced poverty
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CAN AFRICA DO IT?
4. Africa’s own success stories, in addition to
the opportunities identified before….
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CAN AFRICA DO IT?
4. Africa’s own success stories
Cassava transformation in West and Southern Africa;
 Hybrid maize in Eastern and Southern Africa;
 Smallholder cotton in Mali, 1960 to 2006;
 Success of horticultural exports in Kenya and Cote
d’Ivire;
 Smallholder dairying in Eastern Africa;
 Sustainable soil fertility management in Zambia,
Burkina Faso, and Kenya;
 Ghana’s poverty decline….

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CAN AFRICA DO IT?
4. Africa’s own success
stories
All these success stories
demonstrate that, to
different extents, the
soundness of the policy
options listed above, such
as political commitment,
increased investment in
agriculture related R&D,
fostering an enabling
environment (credit, inputs,
and regional integration).
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THANK YOU
Downloads
1.
World Development Report 2008: Agriculture for Development
http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTRES
EARCH/EXTWDRS/EXTWDR2008/0,,menuPK:2795178~pagePK:641
67702~piPK:64167676~theSitePK:2795143,00.html
2.
Awakening Africa’s Sleeping Giants
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTARD/Resources/
sleeping_giant.pdf;
3.
Successes in African Agriculture: Lessons for the Future
http://www.ifpri.org/publication/successes-african-agriculture-1
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