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Effects of India’s growth on the
global economy and environment
Veena Jha
Outline of presentation
• Stylised Facts on India’s growth and
poverty.
• Broad drivers of growth in India.
• Implications of India's success for other
countries.
• Policy lessons learnt that may have
relevance for other countries
Stylised Facts about the Indian
Economy
• 1980 to 2005, economic growth averaged 5% per year,
with over 7% growth since 2001.
• Capital efficiency increased in 1980s, and investment
grew by about five times since 2001.
• Agriculture grew rapidly till mid-1990s, but slower since
then.
• Non-farm employment growth picked up after 1999.
• Share of profits in Net Value Added in organised
manufacturing almost doubled during 1999-05.
• Real wages (rural and urban) declined after mid-1990s.
• Managerial emoluments increased much faster,
especially after 1999.
Stylised Facts about the Indian
Economy
• Period after 1999 saw significant
poverty reduction, particularly in rural
areas, though income distribution
worse.
• Important reasons were:
– a sharp decline in inflation (particularly
food prices),
– Higher worker participation rate due to
demographic changes and opportunities
created by growth.
India’s real GDP growth
Period
19501980
19801990
19902000
20002007
Annual
3.7%
Real GDP
Growth
5.9%
6.2%
6.8%
Annual
1.5%
Real GDP
per Capita
Growth
3.8%
4.4%
5.8%
Poverty
1999-2000
2004-05
1 Rural
27.1
21.8
2 Urban
23.6
21.7
3 Total
26.1
21.8
Informal Sector Asset formation
200.00
pd 1pvrty
150.00
pd2pvrty
100.00
pd 1wages
pd 2wages
50.00
pd1asset
0.00
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28
-50.00
pd2 asset
Effects of Interstate migration
• Some case studies show that before
migration, 24% of the migrants earned at
least minimum wages. Others earned less.
• After migration, 72% earned at least
minimum wages in the state of destination.
• Nearly 63% of the migrants built assets in
rural areas and 22% in urban areas.
• Minimum wages in rural areas below that in
urban areas.
Findings
The average HDI has risen in the 1990s, the coefficient of variation has
fallen
These numbers are therefore quite consistent with the conclusion that inter-state disparities
in well-being have not worsened in the 1990s
11
Drivers of Growth
• Quarter century of strong economic growth built a
momentum of sustained growth; average 5% per annum.
• Services driven growth, where services account for
nearly 60% of GDP today.
• More open economy (to external trade and investment);
fall in applied tariffs from over 100% in 1991 to 12% in
2006.
• Budget deficit declined from 7 to 3.7 percent of GDP
from 1991 to 2001.
• Supportive international economic environment fuelled
by growth of China and the US. India itself now
contributing to global economic growth significantly.
Drivers of Growth
• “Demographic dividend” of a young population:
– Working population nearly 60% of total.
– Household savings rose from around 15-16 % of GDP in late 1980s to
22-24 percent in recent years
• A growing “middle class” fuelling domestic consumption:
– 100 million with $10 th. to $ 40 th.
– 340 million with incomes above poverty levels but less than $10 th.
– Six fold increase in sales of motor vehicles and a 10 fold increase in
telephones since 1991.
• Strong companies in a modernized capital market.
– Market capitalization on the Bombay Stock Exchange rose fourteen-fold
from $50 billion in 1990/91 to $680 billion in 2005/06.
– Share of interest outgo in gross profits dropped sharply from above 50
percent in the late 1990s to 15 percent in 2005/06
What India needs for sustaining
growth and poverty reduction
• Make growth more inclusive by stimulating agricultural growth.
• Improve the output and labour share of manufacturing. The growth
of key services like transport, storage, communication, insurance,
banking, trade and real estate has to be considerably manufacturing
driven.
• Improve labour participation rates further from 61% to 82% as in
China.
• Maintain price stability which is threatening to rise on all fronts.
• Fiscal consolidation. Difficult in an election year with pressure for
populist expenditures. However revenues have risen dramatically
over the past 2 years at over 40% per annum.
• Infrastructure bottlenecks particularly in power and roads needs to
be addressed.
What India needs for sustaining
growth and poverty reduction
• Change labour laws which are so rigid as to discourage additional
employment in the formal sector altogether. Without significant
reform of existing labour laws, India’s cheap labour advantages
remain hugely underutilized.
• Improve India’s weak human resource policies. Serious shortages in
education, skill-development, and health service provision. This
applies to both primary and tertiary schooling.
• While there is some evidence of decoupling of India’s growth from
the US, the slowdown in the global economy is nevertheless a
matter of concern. Oil price rise is another area of concern.
• Rise in the price of metals and food may also dampen some of
India’s growth expectations.
Effects Of India’s growth on the
global economy
• According to a World Bank study, “Dancing with Giants’,
there is scope for India to expand its trade significantly
without hurting development prospects of most other
economies. India is expected to contribute 12% to global
economic growth by 2020.
• If India were to grow at a real rate of 5.5% per annum
upto 2020, then the EU would experience a concomitant
growth of 2.3% per annum with a physical capital
formation of 2.6%. Of course most of the gains are
expected to come to the UK as India’s trade and
investment links are most intensive with the UK amongst
all the EU countries.
•
Effects Of India’s growth on the
global economy
• Large efficiency gains because of:
–
–
–
severe competition in the high-tech sectors
outsourcing and technological developments. Global BPO sector saves 80% costs through India
more countries catching up with capacity augmentation and business links, as wages in fast growing
emerging economies (India) rise.
• While India may displace other countries in markets for high-tech
products, it would create space for other countries to increase
production of light manufactures, agriculture and a large number of
services.
• Improvement in the range and quality of exports from India may
create substantial opportunities and welfare benefits to the world.
The welfare benefit for EU is one of the highest in the world valued
at over 3 trillion dollars.
• Indian companies would invest abroad in both developed and
developing countries.
Effects of India’s growth on Africa
• Upward pressure on raw material price levels which would benefit
Africa.
• Exchange rate developments and resource allocation could go
either way
• Low-wage competition and income distribution, which may cause
structural shifts while at the same time bring increasing consumer
welfare.
• Industrialisation strategies, input linkages to India’s growth process
which would be overall beneficial.
• Capital-flow effects (such as through FDI, project finance, publicprivate joint ventures from India), which is likely to augment
investment in Africa.
• Donor assistance from India which is already about US$2b.
Some Questions remain…
• Will India become an important source of FDI to Africa?
• What would be the beneficiary sectors – Would it graduate from
natural resource intensive sectors to intermediate processing
sectors?
• Would the poor be able to benefit from these developments, or
would they remain outside any benefits, especially if most FDI goes
to resource-intensive industries?
• Where will interests be competitive, e.g would India divert indirectly
investment resources away from African economies?
Effects of India’s growth on the
global environment
• India accounts for 5% of the global energy use
at current levels.
• India’s energy intensity of growth has declined
by 0.2% per annum over the last 25 years.
• In 2003, India’s total primary energy production
was estimated at 441 Mtoe, with coal accounting
for 36 percent of the supply mix, oil for 9
percent, gas for 5 percent, hydroelectric power
for 1 percent, nuclear for 1 percent, and biomass
energy and other renewables for 48 percent.
Effects of India’s growth on the
global environment
• India is an energy scarce country with per capita
consumption of energy about one seventh that
of the UK, and one fourth that of China.
• If India were to grow at an average rate of 5%
per annum till 2050, studies project that total
energy demand is likely to rise by about 3 times
by 2050.
• The switch to electricity in India increases the
share of coal in primary energy demand from
one-third in 2001 to almost 58 percent in 2050.
Effects of India’s growth on the
global environment
• World Bank study says:
– combined effects of India and China’s demand for oil
is likely to raise prices at roughly the same rate by
2050 as over the last about thirty years
– dampening effect of oil price rise will be mitigated by
the “growth-stimulating” effects of the larger markets
in China and India.
– If India’s GDP growth were to be higher, global GDP
growth would also be pushed upward, price rise of oil
would be small
– India’s share of global emissions would rise
substantially.
Effects of India’s growth on the
global environment
• All these scenarios have not introduced
any assumptions on energy efficiency or
decarbonisation. If these are taken into
account than there is a dramatic reduction
in carbon emissions from India, with 33%
less than predicted by 2050.
• These alternative scenarios would require
an increase in investment of nearly 30% in
clean energy.
India’s effort at sustainability
• India is focusing on environment.
• Several examples of India using "leapfrog
strategy" to sustainability.
• India aims to increase renewable energy's share
of its power from five percent to 20-25 percent –
it already has the fourth largest wind power
industry, and the third largest photovoltaic
industry in the world.
• Rainwater harvesting strategies are spreading in
India.
Policy Lessons for other developing
countries
• Initial growth phases may demand strong economic
reforms, wage stability and increase in profitability to
stimulate investment.
• Both agricultural and non-farm sector growth are
important for poverty reduction.
• Links between manufacturing and the growth of key
services like transport, storage, communication,
insurance, banking, trade and real estate.
• Investment in both primary and tertiary education pays
high growth dividends.
Policy Lessons
• Investment in research and technology, removal of the
mis-match in availability and need of skills, and removal
of infrastructural bottlenecks – both of physical and
social infrastructure is crucial for sustaining growth.
• Essential to maintain price stability.
• Importance of fiscal consolidation. This improves the
Government’ credibility and reduces crowding out. It
also provides the fiscal space for allocating larger
resources for capital investment, especially in social and
economic infrastructure.
• A supportive international environment with low levels of
protection is essential to sustain growth and poverty
reduction in developing countries.
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