Transcript English

 Leveraging National Communications to
integrate climate policy into
development plans in Europe and CIS



Sub-regional workshop for GEF Focal Points
Europe and CIS
Dubrovnik, Croatia, 11-13 February 2009
Outline of Presentation
 Summary of some key climate threats in the region
 National Communications role
 Integrating climate change into development
priorities
 Priorities in National Communications for GEF
programming
Climate change poses serious risks in the region
Now
2020-50s
2100s
Water
5% rainfall decline
in southern belt of
ECIS per decade
Significant decline in
annual discharge and
runoff formation across
the region
Surface water
resources in most
basins of Kazakhstan
will decrease 9-29%
Food
Security
40% of irrigation
water demand not
met in average
year; increases to
70% in dry years
and drought season
Irrigation will begin to
fail in Central Asia;
spring yield will
decrease at least 27%
Production of waterintensive crops (e.g.
cotton) in Uzbekistan
and Turkmenistan will
fail
Regional and subnational disparities and
increased rural poverty
Poor population
impacted by more
frequent climaterelated disasters
(in south Macedonia)
Poverty
Livelihoods affected
by more droughts
and crop failures
UNDP-GEF Adaptation
2
Climate change poses serious risks in the region
Now
Disasters
Sea level
Economy
2020-50s
2100s
Dramatic glacier
retreats already
observed in Pamir, AlaToo and Caucasus
In Tajikistan alone,
thousands of glaciers
will disappear by 2050
Contribution to runoff
formation will fall 15-30%
as result of snow melt in
parts of Uzbekistan
Frequency and
intensity of floods on
Danube increased
Glacial lake outbursts
will intensify flood-related
disasters
Fergana Valley foothills
will become intensive
mudslide zones
Rise in Black Sea level
from previous century
is detected at a rate of
2.5mm/yr
Absolute increment of
sea level rise on the
Georgian coast of Black
will be 0.2m
Low-lying coastal areas
of the Black Sea and
Adriatic inundated ~20%
~3-8% GDP loss in
South East Europe
and Central Asia
Economic losses from
floods, landslides and
droughts will increase
across the region
Economic losses from
damage to coastal
infrastructure and
settlements
UNDP-GEF Adaptation
3
Human and economic losses
 Historic mortality from floods highest in
Moldova, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan
 Economic losses from flooding as
proportion of GDP historically highest in
Turkey, Western Kazakhstan, parts of
Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Serbia,
Belarus, Romania, Albania, and
Macedonia
Water Stress
 Armenia: water reserves in snow have decreased 5-10%
 Azerbaijan: seasonal snow line has risen from 1,300-1,500m to 1,8002,000m; subsequently, water resources will be reduced by 5.7–7.7km3
 Macedonia: average discharge will decrease by 10-20% in next 50
years
 Kazakhstan: surface water resources in most basins will fall 9-29% in
50-100 years
 Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan: water resources must dramatically
increase to sustain current level of productivity of cotton and cereals (up
to 70%).
 Albania: total runoff formation already down 10%; will decrease 30% by
Initial National Communications was important in
bringing attention to CC issues in countries, but
had some limitations:
•
Focused on Convention reporting – strategic opportunities
for feeding into national development not fully exploited
•
Conducted by technical experts, but limited participation of
stakeholders from public and private sectors
•
Investigation academic in nature – limited relevance to policy
decision (for instance for climate risk management)
 Second National Communications
(SNC):
 A second opportunity
 Transforming the NC from a mere reporting
process to a strategic and policy support tool

 Producing the SNC document not the end point

SNC should be a vehicle to facilitate:
– Institutionalization of climate change
responses
– Production of knowledge and information on
the basis of national priorities
– Mechanism for a policy dialogue to address
climate change concerns
– Basis for mainstreaming climate change into
national/sectoral planning processes and
Making SNC more policy-relevant

Develop a strategy to address policy relevant issues in
the different SNC components

Establish and consolidate a system for institutional
coordination and political buy-in

Promote policy-oriented studies to expand the traditional
technical assessment

Guide technical teams to leverage the results of
mitigation and Vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) studies for
project formulation and implementation, as well as fundraising
Ways to facilitate the integration of the NC process into government
agendas – sustainability and appropriation
•
Objective of SNC should seek to facilitate policy changes
•
Outcomes of the SNC process to highlight the policy strategies
in the short and long terms
•
SNC process should identify opportunities for strengthening
technical and institutional capacities
Scope of work
Scope of current or future NCs may need to be revisited to ensure linkage with
development planning
•
Ensuring consistency of V&A and mitigation with development
needs (i.e., SNC to focus on assessments conducive to
influence decision making)
•
Ensuring scope of V&A and mitigation studies addresses policy
questions
•
Assessing practices and trends that enhance vulnerability and
increase GHG emissions
•
Conversely, studies may be driven by policy changes needs to
address both development and adaptation/mitigation
Engaging Stakeholders
Design a strategy for stakeholders engagement through
the SNC process and beyond
•
Involve and seek inputs from relevant government institutions
•
Consultations initiated in SNC proposals to be enhanced and
consolidated
•
Stakeholders process to be documented, including follow-up
needed to keep adequate engagement
•
Strategy for results appropriation, with recommendations to
facilitate adoption of results
•
Emphasizing socio-economics assessments as a key element
of adaptation and mitigation assessments
Leveraging National Communications - Summary
1. National Communications:
process and outputs
V&A and mitigation
priorities identified
2. Adaptation Policy Framework
and mitigation plans
Strategies and
Projects Identified
Stakeholders,
institutional
coordination
Monitoring and
evaluation
Partnerships,
Projects (GEF,
bilateral, multilateral)
National Budgeting
3. Adaptation Financing, carbon
financing
UNDP-GEF Adaptation
Adaptation and
mitigation policies
adopted
Integration into
national/sectoral
plans
13
Discussions
 What role can GEF Focal Points play in
linking priorities reflected in National
Communications with GEF programming at
the country level?