Transcript Willow Bioenergy Crops: Locally Grown Renewable Energy

Oil Peak, Facts and Policies
Feb. 20, 2008
Gary Flomenhoft, Fellow Gund Institute
Lecturer, Community and Intl. Development
http://www.uvm.edu/giee
Work Done in the U.S. Economy, 1850-1970
100%
80%
Labor
Fuel
60%
40%
20%
Domesticated
Animals
0%
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
Composition of U.S. Energy Use
100
75
coal
wood
oil
50
gas
25
animal
feed
electricity
0
1800
1825 1850
1875
1900 1925
1950 1975
2000
Energy Densities of Fuels
Fuel
Peats, green wood, grasses
Crop residues, air-dried wood
Bituminous coals
Charcoal, anthracite coals
Crude oils
Energy Density (Mj/kg)
5.0-10.0
12.0-15.0
18.0-25.0
18.0-32.0
40.0-44.0
WORLD
ENERGY
2004
Net Energy
Hubbert Oil Cycle
Marion King (MK)
Hubbert
The Epoch of Fossil Fuel Exploitation
Trillion kwh per year
(after Hubbert, 1969)
300
200
100
-5
Stonehenge
Built
-4
-3
-1
-2
0
Mayan
culture
Steam
Parthenon
Engine
completed
Pyramids
Iron in
constructed
Black
Middle
Death
East
Inquisition
Magellan's
Circumnavigation
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
US Oil Extraction
World Oil Extraction
Oil Reserves
US Oil Extraction
World Oil Extraction
World Oil Extraction
Source: Boyle, et al, Oxford Press
Oil consumption by area
OIL AND GAS LIQUIDS
ASPO Scenario
Net Energy from Oil and Gas Liquids
World Oil Extraction
World Oil Flows
Oil Producers: 98 countries
www.lastoilshock.com
Oil Producers: 64 from 98 in decline, 60 terminally
www.lastoilshock.com
Oil Watch Monthly: October 2007
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3087
Business As Usual-EIA
Business As Usual-EIA
1960-1980 Predictions
1975-1983
Predictions
Real Price of Oil 1869-2007
Dubai Oil Prices and US Oil Consumption
25000
$100.00
$90.00
20000
$80.00
15000
$60.00
$50.00
10000
$40.00
$30.00
5000
$20.00
$10.00
0
Dubai nominal $
Dubai 2006$
US oil consumption
20
05
20
03
20
01
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
83
19
81
19
79
19
77
19
75
19
73
19
71
19
69
19
67
19
65
$0.00
Thousands BBL/day
$70.00
Dubai Oil Prices and US GDP
$14,000.00
$100.00
$90.00
$12,000.00
$80.00
$10,000.00
$70.00
$60.00
$8,000.00
$50.00
$6,000.00
$40.00
$30.00
$4,000.00
$20.00
$2,000.00
$10.00
$0.00
US GDP billions chained 2006 $
20
03
20
01
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
83
19
81
19
79
19
75
19
73
19
71
19
69
19
67
19
65
19
77
Dubai oil Price 2006 $
20
05
$0.00
Dubai Oil Prices and US OIL/GDP ratio
4.000
$100.00
$90.00
3.500
$80.00
3.000
$70.00
2.500
$60.00
2.000
$50.00
$40.00
1.500
$30.00
1.000
$20.00
0.500
$10.00
0.000
Dubai oil Price 2006 $
oil consumption/GDP 2006 $
20
05
20
03
20
01
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
83
19
81
19
79
19
77
19
75
19
73
19
71
19
69
19
67
19
65
$0.00
World Oil Extraction
Dumped Gas Hogs
1974 Lincoln~8mpg
1974 Corolla~30mpg
1980’s 2nd Wave of EVs
Jet Industries:
Citi-Car
(Beaumont)
Electricar
Lectra
“Better batteries 10 years away”
WORLD ENERGY
2001 Vermont Own Load Electric Energy Supply
System (61% FF=8.8%FF)
14.4%
Nuclear
36.3%
Hydro Quebec
34.9%
Renewable
Gas Hydro
Oil
4.9%
1.6% 1.0% 6.9%
Coal
0.0%
8.8+1.6+1= 11.4% Fossil Fuels
How VT Heats
electric
5%
wood
9%
Coal or coke
0%
Utility gas
(nat gas)
12%
other
fuel
no
fuel
solar
energy
Bottled gas,
LP
14%
Fuel oil,
kerosene
60%
86% Fossil Fuels
86% Fossil Fuels
How People Move-USEIA
Gas Hog Tax Credit
Hummer H1
Sticker price $106,185
Current law
Equipment deduction $25,000
Total tax deduction* $60,722
Bush economic plan
Equipment deduction $75,000
Total tax deduction* $88,722
* Includes bonus tax write-off enacted by Congress in March 2002 and a
deduction for normal depreciation.
Sources: Detroit News research, IRS, Taxpayers for Common Sense
Source: EPA
Policy Recommendations: Guidelines
1. Eliminate perverse incentives-make money!
2. Provide positive incentives-account for
externalities. ie: putting a price on carbonmake money or revenue neutral.
3. Regulate (higher mpg)
3. Spend money
The playing field is NOT level. Fossil Fuels
have 100 years of subsidies,ignoring external
costs, and a huge lobby in DC. Don’t expect
the “free market” to take care of it.
WHAT TO DO? Reactive or Pro-active?
WHAT DON’T WE HAVE?
•Oil-zero
•Coal-zero
•Nat Gas-not much (landfills)
Why promote consumption
of something we don’t have?
* Conduct an audit of perverse incentives
promoting FF use. Eliminate perverse
incentives.
WHAT TO DO?
DEALING WITH PEAK OIL IS GOOD FOR
•Climate Change
•Vermont Economy
•Should do it anyway
WHAT TO DO? Provide incentives Ex: Germany
Policies, Market-based Instruments:
1.
1999 Tax & Rebate on Fuel (tax cut): Diesel/gasoline $1.79-2.48/gallon
Funds rebated to payroll taxes-89%, efficiency, and RE
2.
2005 Cap/trade for CO2-powerplants and industrial heat
3.
1991 Feed-in Tariffs: Wind=$.1149, PV=$.6385, hydro=$.1055, biogas=$.1551
•
No costs to government
Results:
•
PV Industry: 2715 MW installed, 52% of world total, 40,000 employed
(US has 360 MW installed or 13% of Germany)
•
Wind Industry: 22,247MW, 28% of world total, 82,000 employed
(United States 16,818MW)
•
Biomass sector 95,400 employed
Total: 217,000 employees in RE
~107,000 FF & nuclear
WHAT TO DO? Reactive or Pro-active?
WHAT DO WE HAVE TO WORK WITH?
•Trees
•Farms
•Cows
•Land
•Wind
•Sun
•Big and Small Hydro
•Smart People
•Indigenous Energy Industry
•Entrepreneurs
WHAT TO DO? Electricity
•VT Yankee = 550MW
CT River Dams-567MW.
•Dams = $160 Million/year revenue.
•Buy the dams. Use eminent domain if necessary
•Fast-track small hydro-up to 400MW
•Approve more wind farms
•More Wood chip plants
•Etc.
WHAT TO DO? Heat
•
All-fuels efficiency/ weatherization
•
District heating and co-generation
•
Biodiesel heating fuel
•
Wood and wood chip/pellet heating
•
Building codes requiring passive solar, thermal mass, window
insulation, Solar hot water
•
Wood stoves
•
High Performance Schools Energy Program
•
Cap/dividend on carbon-heating fuel
WHAT TO DO? Transportation
•Hybrids
•Plug-in hybrids
•Electric vehicles
•Alternative fuels, ethanol, methanol (flex-fuel), biodiesel
•Trains
•Public transit-Jitneys
•Bike/pedestrian paths
•Tax/rebate on fuels
•Cap/dividend on carbon-vehicles
WHAT TO DO? Agriculture
•Don’t turn food into fuel
•Biodiesel: waste oil, algae, non-food crops
Methane digesters: “Cow-power”
Crisis or Opportunity
We will shift from Fossil Fuels.
Will we be Pro-active or reactive?
It’s up to you.