Transcript Energy Efficiency: The first and most profitable way to

Meeting the
Energy Challenges
of the 21st Century
Feryal Ozel
University of Arizona
What exactly is the “crisis”?
Claim #1:The Energy Crisis and the Climate Crisis
are the same thing
What exactly is the “crisis”?
The Energy Crisis and the Climate Crisis
are the same thing
Our Resources
Claim #2: If we just drilled more,
we would meet our energy needs
FALSE
Alternative Energy and Oil Imports
FALSE
Claim #3: If we develop alternative energy
sources, this will end our dependence on
imported oil
It is better for the environment to replace your
1998 Toyota Tercel with 2009 Toyota Prius
FALSE
The State of Fossil Fuels:
USA and World Resources
• The United States consumes 21 million barrels/day
• 25% of the world consumption
• Highest consumption per capita after Canada and Saudi Arabia
• About 70% of this amount is imported
(from Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq….)
Why don’t we produce more?
How Much Oil Do We Have?
Country
Proved Reserves*
Production
Billion barrels
Million barrels
No of Producing
Wells
Saudi Arabia
263
9.1
1560
Canada
179
3.3
Iran
131
4.0
1120
Iraq
115
1.1
1685
UAE
98
2.4
Kuwait
97
2.2
790
Venezuela
78
2.1
15,395
Russia
69
9.2
41,192
U.S.A.
29
5.7
521,070
* excludes oil shale
Drill Baby Drill!
In the US, average production from a single well: 11 barrels/day
In Saudi Arabia, production from a single well: 5800 barrels/day
Drill Baby Drill!
Source:
US Dept
of Energy,
2008
Best case scenario (1 in 20 chances): 1% of world’s production
5% reduction in imports in 2030
The Peak of US Oil
This decline is despite large drilling efforts between 1973 and 1985
Cost of Drilling
Between 1973 and 1980:
New capital investment in the US economy going to
oil industry increased from 2% to 7%
Total footage of drilled wells increased three fold
THE RETURN?
US production declined by 7%
$100 Billion net loss (2% of GDP)
US Energy Consumption
Energy flow in 2007 from the US Department of Energy
Petroleum: 39.82
Unit: Quadrillion Btus
Petroleum Use
• Primary Use: Transportation
Transportation uses up all of the imported oil
• Agriculture: Industrial farming is extremely oil-intensive
Other uses: Heating, Production of Plastics, Lubricants,
Asphalt, Wax
How can we replace the petroleum use?
Biofuels?
• A very complex question
• Idea: derive liquid fuels such as ethanol from agricultural crops
(prime crops)
• Has 2/3 the energy content of petroleum, at roughly twice the cost
• Has benefited from federal and state subsidies
• Takes about 1 gallon of petroleum to make enough ethanol to replace
1 gallon of petroleum (unless derived from agricultural/bio waste)
• Look at the larger relationship between petroleum and agriculture
Fossil Fuels and Agriculture
• After transportation, agriculture uses the largest amount of oil at 17%
Fossil Fuels and Agriculture
• After transportation, agriculture uses the largest amount of oil at 17%
• We use fossil fuels to make fertilizers, operation of machinery,
transportation, irrigation
Fossil Fuels and Agriculture
• After transportation, agriculture uses the largest amount of oil at 17%
• We use fossil fuels to make fertilizers, operation of machinery,
transportation, irrigation
• Today, 400 gallons of oil is used to feed each American annually
• It is accurate to say our diet includes fossil fuels
• Policies for single-crop farming have worsened the situation
Non-Prime Crops
Feedstock grasses Picture courtesy of Steven Chu, LBNL
Responsible Biofuels
IF prairie grass can be grown in otherwise unusable land,
and
IF enzymes can be developed to produce ethanol economically,
a good solution
OTHERWISE,
Economically, socially, environmentally, and scientifically
a bad idea
First order of business:
Couple electricity to transportation
Electric / Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
HAVE TO BE PART OF THE SOLUTION!
Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)
Use on on-board electricity
Recharged from electrical grid
No combustion engine
Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)
Combustion engine plus one or
more electric motors. Uses only
hydrocarbon fuel
Slide Credit: Electric Power Research Institute
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)
Should I replace my car?
• It costs a lot of energy and materials to build a new car
• If you have a functioning, reasonable fuel-efficiency car
(> 20 or so mpg), do not replace it
When you replace it, buy a plug-in hybrid electric car
Hydrogen Fuel Cells
• Hydrogen cells store energy, do not produce it
• Hydrogen is a very inefficient way of storing energy
•
Manufacturing (liquid) hydrogen tanks is extremely expensive
• Overall efficiency (electrolysis x compression x fuel cell) = 40 %
US Electricity Production Sources
Hydropower
7%
Oil Renewables
3% 2%
Natural Gas
16%
Source: US Department of Energy
Coal
52%
Nuclear
20%
Are there any concerns with the current state of affairs?
Sustainable? Economical? Environmentally friendly?
Prospects for Electricity Production
• Natural gas: burns reasonably cleanly, cheapest in plant
construction and fuel costs but reserves diminishing rapidly
• Hydroelectric: truly clean and renewable, some environmental
concerns, but most of the U.S. capacity developed
• Coal: 200 yrs reserves, cheapest after natural gas, but…
The Climate Crisis
Temperature increase:
1.3 F
Very tight relation
between Temperature
and CO2 in the atmosphere
Source: IPCC, endorsed
by ALL National Academies
of Science
The Projections
60
Billions of Tons
Carbon Emitted
per Year
Current CO2:
375 ppm
Historical:
180-280 ppm
for ~million yrs
27
30
Historical
emissions
6
0
1950
2000
2050
2100
Clean Coal = Carbon capture and “geological”
storage
Capture
Compression
Pipeline
Transport
• Will make coal electricity twice as expensive
Underground
Injection
Clean Coal
• Impacts of unintended
leakage
– Health and safety of
workers and general
population
– Environmental impacts
– Unwanted intrusion
into drinking water
• Earthquakes
Unfortunately, not clean enough
Tree kill at Mammoth Mountain, CA
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/prepare/factsheets/CO2/
Nuclear
Multi-faceted question: fuel reserves, economy,
safety, proliferation, waste
PROS:
• Civilian uses and weapons uses completely separated in the U.S.
• Enough fuel for > 30 yrs if ALL U.S. electricity is from nuclear plants
• Enough fuel for thousands of yrs if fuel is reprocessed
QUESTIONS:
• High(er) cost is entirely due to weak policy
• There has never been an injury related to nuclear power plants
in the U.S.
• Waste issue needs to be addressed before construction of any new
plants
Solar Energy
Solar Energy
• It is possible to capture the sun’s energy for direct electricity
generation OR for heat generation in a power plant
• Can provide all of the U.S. electricity needs with solar energy
(100 square miles in AZ or Nevada covered with 20% efficient solar
cells can do it: e.g., Turner, 1999, Science, 285, 687)
• Currently, focus is on decreasing cost
Solar Concentrators
Efficiency
Energy efficiency has to be the first component of any
national energy plan or response to climate change
Energy/cost savings can be HUGE with simple steps
Just a few examples
California: World’s 6th Largest Economy
Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)
(kWh/person) (2006 to 2008 are forecast data)
14,000
12,000
United States
2005 Differences
= 5,300kWh/yr
= $165/capita
10,000
8,000
California
6,000
Total $700 Billion savings
4,000
Per Capita Income in Constant 2000 $
1975
2005
% change
data from the California Energy Commission
2008
2006
2004
94%
79%
2002
2000
1998
31,442
33,536
1996
1992
16,241
18,760
1990
1988
1986
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
0
1984
US GDP/capita
Cal GSP/capita
1994
2,000
Impact of Standards on
The Efficiency of 3 Appliances
110
90
Effective Dates of
National Standards
Effective Dates of
State Standards
80
Gas Furnaces
=
100
Index (1972 = 100)
=
75%
70
60%
60
Central A/C
50
SEER = 13
40
Refrigerators
30
20
1972
25%
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
Year
Source: S. Nadel, ACEEE,
in ECEEE 2003 Summer Study, www.eceee.org
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
MANY Other Savings
LED lights, glazed low-E windows, cogeneration plants,
mileage standards, ………
“pay-back time” is typically ~1 yr for most of these
Compare to 11 years development time for drilling
Windows for heating and cooling climates
Image credit: Stephen Selkowitz, LBNL
Cool Color Cars
• Toyota experiment (surface temperature 18F cooler)
• Ford, BMW, and Fiat are also working on the technology
slide credit: Akbari, LBNL
A Similar Approach to Climate Stabilization
from the McKinsey report
Conclusions
Priority List:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Efficiency Standards
Car Batteries/PHEV Cars
Solar and Nuclear Energy to generate electricity
(including research funds for fusion)
Reduce Agriculture’s dependence on Fossil Fuels
Despite the agendas pushing for them, drilling, prime-crop
ethanol, hydrogen fuel cells, and “clean” coal are unsupported ideas
Solar Energy and Demand
Solar Energy provides most of the demand, can be supplemented in evening hours