Transcript E/3 Houses - University of Dayton

Energy Environment Economy:
Motivation for Energy Efficient Manufacturing
Kelly Kissock Ph.D., P.E.
Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering
Renewable and Clean Energy Program
University of Dayton, Dayton, Ohio
What on Earth Are These?
World
Energy
Use
World
Population
World
Gross
Income
Converting Heat to Work
Since pre-history we knew how to:
Work
Heat
Industrial Revolution to:
Work
Heat
Newcomen’s Steam Engine
~1712
Revolutionary Change Transforms
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Economy: textile production increases 150 fold
and prices drop 90%
Place: cities grow from 5% to 50%
Family: parents leave home to work
Geography: steam ship and railroad
Technology
Population
Economic Explosion
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Pre-industrial
revolution per
capita annual
income: $600
Industrial revolution
US/Europe income
$600 to $18,000
Increases 30x!
Energy Revolution Creates Modern World
Single Most Important Event
in Human History
The Nature of Wealth
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James Watt observed that a horse
pulling 180 pounds of force made
144 trips around the circle in an
hour, at an average speed of 181
feet per minute = 33,000 ft. lbs.
per minute = one “horsepower”.
Generating 1 hp required:
 1,500 lb horse
 6 ft tall
 costs $5,000 /yr to board
Today, generating 1-hp
requires:
 32 lb motor (30x less)
 4 x 6 inches (12x less)
 costs $250 /year to
power (20x less)
We’ve Come a Long Way…
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Newcomen’s steam engine: 0.5%
Watt’s steam engine: 1%
Gasoline engines: 30%
Coal Rankine cycles: 35%
Turbines: 40%
Diesel engines: 50%
Combined-cycle turbine/Rankine engines: 60%
But Energy Conversion
Largely Unchanged…
1. Use hydrocarbon fossil fuels
2. Employ combustion to release heat
CH4+2(O2 + 3.76 N2)=CO2+2H20+(NOx+SOx+…)
3. Convert heat to work via thermal expansion
84% Of World Energy
From Fossil Fuels
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In U.S. 86% from non-renewable fossil fuels
Source: U.S. D.O.E. Annual Energy Review 2005
Resource Constraints
M. King Hubbert
Hubbert’s 1956 Prediction of
US Oil Peak
Actual U.S. Oil Production
(Peaks in 1972)
Source: www.ab3energy.com/hubbert.html
Hubbert’s 1956 Prediction of
World Oil Peak
Cambell’s World Oil Peak
ASPO World Oil Peak
EIA’s World Oil Peak
World Oil
Near Peak Production
30
25
BB
20
15
10
5
0
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
Year
Hubbert Curve
Actual
Peak production = 2015
Based on 1,800 BB “World Oil Resources’, WRI 1994
2100
World Natural Gas
Near Peak Production
120
10^12 ft3
x
100
80
60
40
20
0
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Year
Hubbert Curve
Actual
Peak production = 2018
Based on 6,044 TCF ‘World Dry Natural Gas Reserves’, Oil and Gas Journal, IEA 2004
World Coal
Peak Production 2050?
10,000
10^6 tons
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Year
Hubbert Curve
Actual
Peak production = 2060
Based on 997,506 MT ‘World Estimated Recoverable Coal’, IEA 2004
Consequences of Peak Fuel
• Rising demand and falling supply
rapidly increases fuel prices
• Rising fuel prices reduce
expendable income and cause
recessions
• Rising fuel prices drain fuel
importing economies and increase
trade deficits
• Competition for dwindling supply
increase national security risks
• Rising fuel prices support
undemocratic regimes (Russia,
Middle East, Venezuela, etc.)
Environmental Perspective
“Using energy in today’s ways leads
to more environmental damage than
any other peaceful human activity.”
The Economist, 1990.
95% Of Local/Regional Air Pollution
from Fossil Fuels
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
99%
95%
95%
40%
73%
70%
30%
20%
10%
0%
CO2
SO2
NOx
VOC
CO
Global CO2 Concentration
• Keeling Curve: Mauna Loa, Hawaii
• 2005 Concentration: ~380 ppm
Coincident Global Warming
Hansen, J., “Is
There Still Time
to Avoid
Dangerous
Anthropogenic
Interference
with Global
Climate?”,
American
Geophysical
Union, 2005.
Molecules with Odd Number Atoms (CO2
CH4) Trap Heat
“Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989
Historical Temperature CO2 Correlation
“Changing Climate”,
Stephen Schneider,
Scientific American,
10/1989
Greenhouse Gas Trends
Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, 2001,
“Summary for Policymakers”
Result: Earth Quickly Warming
Hansen et al., Journal Geophysical Research
Warming Fastest at Pole
“Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989
Melting Polar & Greenland Ice Caps
And …
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Rising sea level and low-level flooding
Drought
Severe weather
Mass extinctions (30% of species lose range)
Accelerating non-linear irreversible process
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Methane release from thawing “perma-frost”
Lower albedo from decreasing ice cover…
Cincinnati Days > 90 F
18 (Current) to 45 (Low Emissions) or 85 (High Emissions)
Source: Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest: Ohio,
Union of Concerned Scientists, 2009
Spring Rainfall Increases
30% (High Emission)
Source: Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest: Ohio,
Union of Concerned Scientists, 2009
Debate?
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Consensus view from:
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Every U.S. scientific body (NAS, AMS, AGU, AAAS)
Every G8 National Academy of Science’
Literature review (Oreskes, Science, Vol. 306, 2004):
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All scientific peer-reviewed journals from 1993 – 2004 with key
words “climate change”.
Found 983 papers
NONE disagreed with consensus position
“The need for urgent action to address
climate change is now indisputable.”
U.S. National Academy of Sciences
and counterpart academies from 12
other nations. 2009
Linear Model of Production
Fossil Fuel
Resources
Atmosphere
Fossil
Fuel
Energy
CO2 &
Pollution
Energy Out
Economy
Running Out of Energy Resources While Atmosphere Filling Up
Ecological Model of Production
Biological
Technical
State Renewable Electricity Standards
29 States and District of Columbia
Ohio: 12.5% of
electricity from
renewable energy
by 2025
Mandatory
Voluntary
Source: Securing the Transition to a Clean and Sustainable
Energy Economy, Deyette, J., Union Concerned Scientists, 2011
US CO2 Stabilization Scenario (ASES)
Kutscher, C., “Tackling Climate Change in the US”, Solar Today, March, 2007
Energy Efficiency
Lowest Cost Source of “New Power”
Source: A Risky Proposition, Union of Concerned Scientists, 2011
Reduce U.S. CO2 by 20%
at Negative Cost (i.e. while making money)
Source:Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How Much at What Cost?”, McKinsey and Company, December 2007
Energy Efficiency in the U.S.
Source: Laitner, S., American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy,
Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress, June 25, 2008
Energy Efficiency in California
Source: Rosenthal, A. California Energy Commission, 2006
Energy Efficiency in Ohio
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22% of electricity from efficiency savings by 2025
(AEP at http://gridsmartohio.com/)
All new schools must be LEED Silver
The Ohio Department of Development: grants and loans
(http://development.ohio.gov/Energy/Incentives/Grant
sLoans.htm)
U.S. Department of Energy: no-cost industrial energy
assessments
(http://academic.udayton.edu/kissock/http/IAC/default
.htm)
International Standards
ISO Standards
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9001 Quality
14001 Environment
50001 Energy
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Requires energy management personnel and
organizations within a company to determine
baseline energy use, determine energy efficiency
targets, identify and implement energy efficiency
opportunities, measure effectiveness of energy
efficiency improvements.
Energy Engineering Courses at UD
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MEE
MEE
MEE
MEE
MEE
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MEE
MEE
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MEE
MEE
MEE
MEE
420/569: Energy Efficient Buildings
478/578: Energy Efficient Manufacturing
590: Geothermal Energy Sources
590: Wind Energy Systems
590: Solar Energy Engineering
524: Electrochemical Power
507: Advanced Energy Materials
590: Thermal System Analysis
471/571: Design of Thermal Systems
473/573: Renewable Energy Systems
472: Design for Environment
499/599: Environmental Sustainability
590: Building Energy Informatics
Remarkably
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Energy Efficiency
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Increases business competitiveness
Increase resource availability
Increases environmental health
Energy Efficiency is
THE PATH TO THE NEW ENERGY EFFICIENT
ECONOMY
Thank you!
“Europe’s Plan For a Low-Carbon
Economy”
Over the coming decade raising the EU’s climate target
from 20% to 30% can foster the following outcomes
by 2020:
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Increase the growth rate up to 0.6% per year
Create up to 6 million additional jobs Europe-wide
Boost European investments from 18% to up to
22% of GDP
Increase GDP by up to 6%
Source: “A New Growth Path for Europe: Generating Prosperity and Jobs in the LowCarbon Economy”, European Climate Forum e.V., Potsdam, Germany, 2011
US CO2 Stabilization Scenario (NRDC)
Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September, 2006
Energy Efficiency in California
Source: Rosenfeld, A. and McAuliffe, P., “Opportunities in the Building Sector: Managing Climate
Change”, International Seminar on Planetary Emergencies, Erice, Sicily” August 2007
Rising Sea Level
& Low Elevation Flooding
Government Programs
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U.S. Department of Energy
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Energy audits
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Energy system software and best practice case studies
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
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Whole plant energy audits by universities for mid-sized
manufacturers
Steam, process heating, compressed air and pump energy audits
for large manufactures
E3 energy, waste and productivity audits
Ohio utilities must improve energy efficiency by 20% by
2020
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DPL, Duke, AEP offer rebates on energy efficient equipment and
retrofits.