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NHS funding pressures in a
decade of austerity
Authors: Adam Roberts, Research Analyst
www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/nhs-financial-challenge
3 December 2012
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Contents
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Introduction to health care spending, past and present
Funding gap for a decade
Period 1 – 2010/11 to 2014/15
Period 2 – 2015/16 to 2021/22
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NHS PCT Expenditure 2010/11
Projected funding gap in 2021/22 – Base Case
Projected funding gap in 2014/15 – Base Case
Closing the gap in 2014/15
Closing the gap in 2014/15
Closing the gap in 2014/15
Funding gap in 2021/22 under three scenarios from the IFS
Funding gap in 2021/22 under three scenarios from the IFS
Funding gap in 2021/22 under three scenarios from the IFS
Funding gap in 2021/22 under three scenarios from the IFS
Funding gap in 2021/22 under three scenarios from the IFS
Savings compared to freeze in funding
Summary
• Funding gap in 2021/22 of between £44 and £54bn
• Funding gap in 2014/15 would be between £13 and £16bn
• This gap could be closed through a combination of
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Pay reform
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Management of chronic conditions
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Reduction of hospital activity through QIPP
• This would reduce the gap in 2021/22 to £12-£14bn in 2021/22, if funding rises in line with GDP
forecasts after 2014/15
• Second gap could be closed by
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Realising all savings from QIPP
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Continued management of chronic conditions
• If NHS funding frozen in real terms after 2014/15 then remaining funding gap between £16-£19bn
• Growing pressures on social care could create a funding gap of £7-£12bn
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