Transcript Projected expenditure on care for older people to 2022

Projected expenditure on: care for older
people to 2022
Raphael Wittenberg, Bo Hu, Adelina Comas-Herrera
and Jose-Luis Fernandez
Personal Social Services Research Unit, London School of Economics and Political Science
December 2012
© Nuffield Trust
Overview
• Analysis by the Personal Social Services Research Unit at the
London School of Economics and Political Science,
commissioned by the Nuffield Trust.
• Study of projected public expenditure on social care and
continuing health care for people aged 65 and over in England.
• Part of the Nuffield Trust’s Buying Time: What is the scale of
the financial challenge facing the NHS and how can it be met?
programme.
• Findings are drawn upon in A Decade of Austerity: The funding
pressures facing the NHS from 2010/11 to 2021/22, which
discusses the implications of these projections for policy
development.
© Nuffield Trust
Key findings
• The number of older people with disabilities is projected to increase
by 31% between 2010 and 2022, under the base case assumptions
that current patterns of care and the Office for National Statistics
(ONS) principal population projections keep pace with expected
demographic and unit cost pressures.
• Public expenditure on social care and continuing health care for older
people is projected to increase by 37% between 2010 and 2022,
under these base case assumptions.
© Nuffield Trust
Key findings (continued)
• Total expenditure will vary with life expectancy:
•
If life expectancy rises at the lower rate estimated by the ONS, the number
of people with disabilities is projected to rise by 30%, and public
expenditure by 35% in real terms between 2010 and 2022.
•
If life expectancy rises at the higher rate, the number of people with
disabilities would rise by 35%, with expenditure rising by 40%.
• If rates of chronic disease continue to rise in line with recent trends:
•
the number of older people with disabilities is projected to increase by 54%
between 2010 and 2022
•
public expenditure on social care and continuing health care for older
people is projected to increase by 56% between 2010 and 2022.
© Nuffield Trust
Key findings (continued)
• The net public expenditure on social care and continuing health care
for older people is projected to rise from £9.3 billion in real terms
(0.74% of GDP) in 2010 to £12.7 billion (0.78% of GDP) in 2022,
assuming that current patterns of care and the ONS principal
population projections keep pace with expected demographic and unit
cost pressures.
© Nuffield Trust
Personal social services (PSS) net expenditure and continuing health care (CHC)
expenditure on over-65s in England under base case assumption, 2010–2022
Source: Personal Social Services Research Unit, London School of Economics and Political Science
©
© Nuffield Trust
Personal social services net and continuing health care expenditure on social
care for over-65s in England under different life expectancy variants, 2010–2022
Source: Personal Social Services Research Unit, London School of Economics and Political Science
©
© Nuffield Trust
Personal social services net and continuing health care expenditure on over-65s
in England under base case and continued trends assumption, 2010–2022
©
© Nuffield Trust
Source: Personal Social Services Research Unit, London School of Economics and Political Science
www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk
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