Transcript Final Luton Expansion Plan

Luton Expansion: the latest version
September/October 2012
Michael Nidd
London Luton Town & Village Communities
Committee
(Aka the Alphabet Committee)
A shameless plug…..
Three months ago I said this:
“You wait 6 years for an airport
Master Plan
And then 2 turn up, one after the
other”
The latest story on “New Jobs”
It claims to add 440 new jobs for each million additional passengers
plus about 1700 which are to arise through “indirect and induced employment”
The reality
over more than 10 years experience at Luton :
210* direct jobs per million, of which 20% are part-time
*That number is derived from the joint airport/LBC Annual Monitoring Reports
which are signed-off as accurate each year by LBC and the airport operator
As for “indirect” and “induced” – think of some numbers; that’s what the consultants
have done! Impossible to verify. When Manchester got its second runway, the 50,000
new jobs promised at the start of the proposals turned out to be about 6,800 by the
time the runway was built.
Empty promises
The glowing “economic benefits” statements:
The Airport supports some 8,200 direct local jobs. It has an annual economic value of
some £780 million to the local economy. This includes £411 million of direct annual
business expenditure into the local economy, £160 million of indirect supply-chain
effects and £151 million of wages and salaries of workers. In addition, it is estimated
that through business and personal taxes, business rates and airport duty, revenue of
over £187 million is generated for local and central government, bringing the overall
annual economic value of the Airport to just under £1 billion (£966 million).
They do NOT tell us that:
According to Government figures on travel and tourism, we Brits
spend far more when going abroad than do foreign tourists coming
here. Even in 2010, each outbound Brit contributed around £270 to
the tourist spending deficit. Luton’s 5 million outbound tourists
therefore cost the UK economy £1.35 billion: and that ignores the
economic effects of the export of capital to buy second homes in
Europe on the back of cheap flights…….
Those passenger figures from last time: not altogether the whole story…..
Here’s what the Department of Transport says about Luton:
What a difference three months seems to have made….
An unique airport – zero growth after 2027
According to the airport’s own Development Brief (2001):
“The capacity will almost certainly not be
defined in terms of passenger throughput,
simply because it is a measure that cannot
easily be controlled.”
Are the proposals described misleadingly?
Given Luton’s “form” on greatly exceeding passenger throughput
which featured in their last planning application, what credence can
be given to any part of these proposals?
Where is there any reference to limits on flight numbers, noise etc?
The one so-called Planning Condition which was set for the last
expansion is and always has been completely ineffective.
Is this proposal, in truth, for a Nationally Significant
Infrastructure Project and therefore one which should be
determined by the Planning Inspectorate, not by the
airport owner?
The owners’ last plan
purported to tell us a bit about
noise: most of it, misleading..
What we were told about noise (and what we’re NOT
told):
This was the forecast based on 2008 movements numbers: note the
position of the western ends!)
But this was the 2008 contour in reality – so what new set of
assumptions produced those shown in the consultation?
and here’s what they did NOT tell us: this was the 2008 night contour
Where complaints come from…..
One of our own flight-path diagrams: aircraft where they shouldn’t be……
But, this time, we’re told virtually
nothing
about the noise implications
But we can safely conclude that they’ll be substantially worse
than they are now
But we can read much into the implications hidden behind
“15 new aircraft stands”…..
more stands =
more capacity for based aircraft and overnight parking
more flights departing in the 06.00 – 09.00 morning peak
more flights returning to base late due to accumulated
delays during the day
More night noise disturbance
Noise mitigation: a hollow joke
Most of these items are either achievable now or might affect, at most, about 50 flights a year
Surface Access etc.
Luton is perched on a hilltop, with no possibility of a direct rail connection.
70% of its passengers arrive by car, whether parked at the airport, via “kiss and fly” or taxi.
9% more use off-site car-parks. And the airport’s financial performance relies on carparking charges – it claims to make a loss just from operating an airport.
East-West road connections are poor, which results in demand on local roads over a wide
area – it’s not just an “M1J10/10A” issue;
Where would all those added job-holders live (Luton is built-up to its boundaries); how
would they travel to work; is there adequate infrastructure to sustain the resulting added
population in whichever location they might live?
According to the proposal, even if the aspirational target of
persuading 40% of travellers to use public, non-car, transport to
get to and from the airport, the proposed 73% increase in
passengers would cause a 55% increase in airport-bound road
traffic.
There’s much more to be told…….
The taxiways today
Here’s why the existing taxiway is the length it is…..
The land falls away like the side of the Alps: my estimate is for around
200,000 cubic metres of landfill to level the land for the taxiway
extensions: that’s a lot of lorryloads
When, and how, would the work be done?
What we do NOT want:
Or this…….
And especially not….