Transcript Results from a survey examining college student & adult public

University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire
Results from a Survey Examining Adult and
College Student Public Opinion on Climate
Change in China and the United States
Students
Brittany Flaherty, David Hahn, Shawn Peterson,
Greg Sikowski and Helue Vazquez Valverde
Faculty Mentor
Eric Jamelske, Ph.D.
University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire
University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire
Outline
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Introduction
Background
– Climate Change Science, Public Opinion, International Policy
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Survey/Sample
Results
Conclusion
Discussion/Q&A
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US Senate Hearings - 1988
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Dr. James Hansen - three points
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Earth is warmer in 1988 than any time in history of instrumental
measurements
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Global warming now large enough to ascribe with high degree of
confidence a cause and effect relationship to greenhouse effect
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Computer simulations indicate greenhouse effect is already large
enough to affect probability of extreme events such as heat waves
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) formed
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IPCC 4th Assessment - 2007
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Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
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Increases in global average air and ocean temperatures
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Widespread melting of snow and ice
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Rising global average sea level
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Droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and intensity of tropical
cyclones
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IPCC 4th Assessment - 2007
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“Very high confidence that the global average net effect of human
activities since 1750 has been one of warming.”
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Continued greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions“…would cause
further warming and induce many changes in the global climate
system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger
than those observed during the 20th century.”
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International Policy - UNFCCC
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United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
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Kyoto Protocol, passed in 1997 and entered into force by ratifying
countries in 2005.
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Kyoto Protocol did not require GHG reductions by developing
countries (Non-Annex I parties)
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Burden of change on developed nations (Annex I parties)
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International Policy - Kyoto Failure
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Exclusion of China cited as important determinant in US decision
to not ratify/join the Kyoto Protocol
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Global GHG emissions continue to rise
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US emissions were not reduced, China emissions increased
significantly
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Little meaningful international action cooperatively through the
UNFCC post-Kyoto
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Continued Warnings 2013 - 2014
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IPCC 5th Assessment
“…extremely likely human influence has been dominant cause of
observed warming since mid-20th century. Continued GHG
emissions will cause further warming and changes in climate
system. Limiting climate change will require substantial and
sustained reductions of GHG emissions.”
3rd US National Climate Assessment
“Climate change, once considered an issue for a distant future, has
moved firmly into the present.”
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Scientific Consensus in Literature
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Oreskes (2004)
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Doran and Kendall-Zimmerman (2009)
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Anderegg et al. (2010)
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Cook et al. (2013)
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97–98% of active climate researchers in agreement with IPCC
Emissions in China, the US and the
Rest of the World
-China 2012 emissions 1.88 times larger
than US emissions
-US cumulative emissions from 1850-2010
2.56 times larger than China emissions
-China + US 2012 emissions comprise
41.6% of global total
-US + China cumulative emissions from
1850-2010 comprise 38.5% of global total
Source: Carbon Dioxide Information
Analysis Center
Source: World Resources Institute,
Climate Data Explorer
Total, Per Capita and Per Unit of
GDP Emissions in China and the US
-China 2012 emissions are 1.88 times larger than US emissions
-China 2012 per capita emissions are only 0.44 of US emissions
-China 2012 emissions per unit of GDP are just over 2 times as large as US emissions
Quotes from 2012 US Presidential Campaign
“More droughts and floods and wildfires are not a joke. My
plan will continue to reduce the carbon pollution that is
heating our planet because climate change is not a hoax.”
-Barack Obama
"Do I think the world's getting hotter? I don't know, I think it
is, but I don't know if it's mostly caused by humans. What
I'm not willing to do is spend trillions of dollars on something
I don't know the answer to.”
-Mitt Romney
Skepticism and Denial in the United States
Quotes from Chinese Government Officials
“Climate change is a grave challenge to the sustainable
development of the human society…the Chinese government
is determined to address climate change in the process of
pursuing sustainable development.”
“Developed countries must take responsibility for their
historical cumulative emissions and current high per capita
emissions to change their unsustainable way of life and to
substantially reduce their emissions and provide financial
support and transfer technology to developing countries.”
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International Policy – The US & China
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International climate cooperation is controversial because of politics,
special interests and individual differences within countries…
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As well as issues of responsibility, blame and fairness across
countries...
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Controversy centers on differences between developed and
developing nations…
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Highlighted by the stalemate between US and China
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What do Adults and College Students in the
United States and China Think About
Climate Change?
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Chinese Research Partners
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Jinan University, Guangzhou
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Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu
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University of International Business and Economics, Beijing
 Low Carbon Economy Institute
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Xian University of Posts and Telecommunications, Xian
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Many Chinese student research assistants
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Project Support
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UW Sabbatical Program
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UWEC International Fellows Program
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UWEC Foundation
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Xcel Energy and Northwestern Bank
Our Survey
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Is climate change happening?
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Is it anthropogenic?
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What does science say?
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What is the threat?
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How concerned are you?
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What should be done?
Our Sample (N = 7,358)
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2,335 US college students (Online, professors, extra credit, 60%)
 CA, NE, RI, WI, CO, MD, SC
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1,670 Chinese college students (Online, professors, extra credit, 60%)
 Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Xian, Shanghai
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1,306 US adults (Online, postcards, gift card, 7%)
 CA, NE, RI, WI
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2,047 Chinese adults (In person, 40%)
 Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Xian
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More Analysis of Climate Change Concern
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Ordinary Least Squares regression on self-reported concern about
climate change among college students in US and China
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Concern is measured on scale from 1 – 5
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1 = not at all concerned
2 = not very concerned
3 = somewhat concerned
4 = concerned
5 = very concerned
What factors influence the level of concern
Note: Statistical significance is denoted as *** = 0.01 level, ** = 0.05 level and * = 0.10 level.
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Conclusion
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Chinese citizens show greater acceptance of CC realities compared
to US citizens
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More likely to believe in anthropogenic CC
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Less likely to see scientific disagreement on anthropogenic CC
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More likely to see threat to humans from CC
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Less likely to be unconcerned about CC
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More likely to support joining international CC agreement
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Possible Reasons for US Results
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Climate change coverage in US media and political nature of debate
is much different than situation in China
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US has Six Americas ranging from alarmed/concerned to
doubtful/dismissive
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Significant variation in climate change views among Americans
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Possible Reasons for Chinese Results
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Chinese government states climate change is real and important
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Chinese media reports climate change as scientific consensus
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Chinese citizens are accustomed to respecting government authority
and look to government for leadership on climate change
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Within the Chinese culture, people are very respectful of education
and knowledge (science)
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China has experienced extreme weather events including flood,
drought and heat waves as well as intense air pollution and smog
Questions & Discussion
Appendix
Demographics
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US college students
 Average age = 19.4 (stdv=1.3), 49.6% Male, 81.6% White
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Chinese college students
 Average age = 19.7 (stdv=1.3), 44.9% Male, 95.4% Han
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US adults
 Average age = 49.7 (stdv=14.3), 53.2% Male, 87.7% White
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Chinese adults
 Average age = 39.1 (stdv=12.7), 56.4% Male, 93.8% Han
Demographics
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Household Income
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Education
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Based on US Census and China Statistical Yearbook
US Dollars ($) or Chinese Yuan (CNY)
Parents for college students
Good distribution across 8 categories
Highest level completed
Parents for college students
Good distribution across 5 categories
Political Ideology (US)
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Adult: Liberal (37.4%), Moderate (29.4%), Conservative (26.1%), Other (7.1%)
College: Liberal (29.4%), Moderate (34.1%), Conservative (29.6%), Other (6.9%)
Question: What are the three most important issues for society to address?
Respondents were given 15 issues to choose from with responses coded as most
important = 3, 2nd most important = 2, 3rd most important = 1
Figure reports selected results as weighted average
Economy is most important in US, Environment is most important in China
Question: What are the three most important issues for society to address?
Respondents were given 15 issues to choose from with responses coded as most
important = 3, 2nd most important = 2, 3rd most important = 1
Figure reports selected results as weighted average
Economy is most important in US, Environment is most important in China