Transcript Towards more metropolisation - Institut d`aménagement et d

Towards more
metropolisation ?
A systematic empirical overview
through the European FUAs
Christian Vandermotten
September 2011
Faculté des Sciences
Institut de Gestion de l’Environnement et d’Aménagement du Territoire
The « scientific » theory
Metropolisation and world cities, nodes of the
networks of the globalised economy, cores of the
creative and innovative economy, in a postindustrial society
The « political » consequences
More competition between the main cities, a fading
of the cohesion policies, similar politics led by the
results of benchmarking studies, more attention
paid to the exogenous than to the endogenous
economy, more gentrification vs. more social
policies in the cities
What are the empirical
evidences concerning
metropolisation ?
• Are the economies of the biggest cities
performing better through Europe ?
• Are they performing socially better (less
unemployment) ?
The data
• A common delimitation, the population and the
GDP for the whole set of FUAs with more than
50,000 inhab. of the EU27+Switzerland, realised
for ESPON and the DATAR (more than 10 % of the
active population commuting to the morphological cores)
• For each FUA with more than 200,000 inhab.,
the economic structure (manufacturing, building,
trade and transports, financial services, other
services), an accessibility index, indexes about
the economic, the cultural and touristic, the
scientific and the political position of the FUA,
the unemployment level
• The GDP data and their evolution (1995-20012008) are computed by comparison to the
European (EU27) average, but also towards the
national averages, the national dynamics
remaining a very significant reference
• EU27(+Switzerland) has been considered as a
whole, but also in three sub-sets (Western
Europe and Northern Italy ; Mediterranean
Europe and Southern Italy ; Central-Eastern
Europe and Eastern Germany), where the
mechanisms could be quite different
• GDP/inhab. is growing with the size of the
FUAs, at least from the threshold of
200,000 inhab.
• This gap is spectacular in Central-Eastern
Europe, mainly in favour of the capital
cities
• The difference between smaller and bigger
FUAs is not fading, and even strongly
increasing in Central-Eastern Europe
between 1995 and 2008
• ... but it remains stable in Western Europe
FUAs with more than 1,000,000 inhab.
• Capital cities improve or at least maintain
their favourable relative position, mainly in
Central-Eastern Europe,
• ... with two big exceptions : Berlin and
Wien,
• Among the other main cities, the better
inserted in the global networks and some
main ports are generally performing better
than the early manufacturing cities,
• ... but this trend towards metropolisation is
weaker during the beginning of the 2000s
than it was during the 90s
1
0,8
COM E
IND
0,6
GRGDP E
0,4
COM
GRGDP
IND E
GRGDP 95
IECO
0,2
POP
IPOL
IPOL E
ISCI
IECO E
ISCI E
ICULT
POP E
ICULT E
0
-1
-0,8
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
GRPOP E
ACCES E
GRPOP
ACCES
-0,2
FIN E
-0,4
FIN
Relative GDP vs.
national
averages
-0,6
-0,8
OT S
OT S E
-1
1
PCA all
FUAs and
CentralEastern
Europe
GDP relative
growth
20012008 (with
projection
of GDP
relative
growth
19952008)
PC1=41 % var.
PC2=15 >% var.
Conclusions
• Post-Fordist metropolisation confirms and
reinforce the importance of the main cities as the
nodes of the accumulation processes after their
de-industrialisation during the 60s and the 70s,
• ... however this dynamics is fading from the
beginning of the XXIth Century, by comparison
to the 90s (too expansive real estate ? higher
wages ? lower growth of the financial sector ?)
• The Central-Eastern European capitals keep
their comparative advantages, but they remain
more the cores and the insertion nodes of their
national economies than true globalised
metropolises
• Cities with a strong manufacturing (or coalmining) past undergo generally low relative
growth rates, with some significant exceptions
(Bilbao, Katowice and Lodz even if they don't
progress at the same rate as Warszawa
BUT
• It doesn't mean that it could be enough for any
middle-sized or even big city to undertake a
« metropolisation-oriented » policy for improving
its growth
• ... and this conclusion is mainly true in Western
Europe, where cities can develop many different
opportunities as basis for their development, as
specific niches and not forgotting endogenous
economies
• ... and more especially as more
metropolisation, more economic growth or
a higher relative GDP no more mean less
unemployment, in particular in Western
Europe