Transcript 410 Kb Powerpoint presentation - Office for National Statistics

National Accounts and Related Outputs
Work Plan: 2013 – 2017
Andrew Walton
NA Work Plan
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Scope
Progress so far
Why are we doing it?
Some highlights
Next steps
NA Work Plan: Scope
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National Accounts and components
Public Sector Finances
Balance of Payments and Trade
Short term Indicators
Regional Accounts
Progress so far
• Already consulted on a five-year
National Accounts and related
outputs plan
• As a result we have published an
agreed plan as a basis for future
discussions with users
• This is based on ‘expected’ resources
• Not set in stone
• Responsive to developments
• But recognise that this will have an
impact
Why are we doing it?
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User interest is very high
Lots of issues and improvements
More effective way of prioritising
Business as usual and ESA10/BPM6
takes most of the resource
• Manage expectations
Detail of the plan - summary
• For 2014 major ESA10/BPM6
demand
• Legally required so little choice
• Beyond 2015 more scope
• But still a lot of ESA10/BPM6 development until 2017 or
2018
• Identified the other big developments
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Flow of funds
Quarterly constant price supply and use
Source improvement not quick
Plan sets out some deliverables along the path
Business as Usual
• Improving our Business as usual
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Ensuring the range of publications meet user needs
Presenting the statistics to both expert and lay users
Making underlying data easily accessible for all users
Ensuring the production of the statistics is as streamlined
as possible to maximise time available for excellent
presentation
• Implement a wider user engagement strategy
• Communicate with users via a programme of articles and
seminars that address emerging issues.
• Expand the revisions database and analyses to include
the main aggregates.
Developments
• National Accounts development &
Continuous Improvement
• Meeting Regulatory requirements
• ESA10/BPM6
• Comply with regulations
• Address GNI reservations and A points
• Quality initiatives
• Outcome of National Statistics Quality Review not
yet in the plan
• Continuous improvement
National Statistics Quality Review
• Scope as in this work plan
• User focussed
• Externally led with ‘expert’ NA
support
• Team identified over the summer
• Review started in September
• Finishing Spring 2014
• Recommendations prioritised in next
year’s work plan
GDP and short term indicators
• Various reviews
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Construction
Industry reviews
COICOP
Living costs and food survey
Compilation methods
• Supply and Use developments
• Annual constant price
• Interim solution for detailed purchases
• Input-output analytical tables
GDP and short term indicators
• Nominal GDP
• Improving processes
• Historic data
• Output data
• More detailed HHFCE and GFCF
• ESA10 dataset alongside Blue Book 2014
• Key issue – quarterly KP SUT
Quarterly constant price Supply
and Use Tables
• Vision would be ‘world class’
• Most countries with QSUT use large
amounts of modelled data
• In UK, would highlight some data
deficiencies (income, Intermediate
consumption, some household
expenditure)
• Source improvements not yet planned
• Given changes to survey programme
required by ESA10/BPM6, unlikely before
2019
Quarterly constant price Supply
and Use Tables
• But we can do something
• Annual KP SUT gives experience of
simultaneous balancing
• Develop quarterly ‘commodity flow’ for
major products (e.g cars, oil, energy,
construction, aircraft)
• Publish by 2015
• Develop plan by 2016 for source
improvement
Sector and Financial Accounts
• Big ESA10 challenge
• More sectors and accounts
• Transaction reviews
• Other international
• G20 data gaps, SDDS+, MIPS
• Historic data
• Working to restore pre-1987 data
• Key issue – Flow of funds
Flow of Funds
• In this context means ‘from whom to
whom’
• Additional data collection planned for 2018
as part of ESA10/BPM6 programme
• Before then?
• Bank ‘requirements’
• Update Finstats methodological guide
• Articulate explicitly the coverage of the OFI sector
• ‘Use more data’
• Resource arrived to start the work in
September, so in the planning stage now
Balance of Payment and Trade
• Major BPM6 changes
• No derogations so more uncertainty
over delivery
• Pressures on understanding new
concepts
• Global Value Chains
• Digital economy
• No plans to do anything significant
other than BPM6
Public Sector Finances
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Aligning PSF and NA
6 pack agreement
Review of the “ex measures”
ESA10 challenge
• Review of Network Rail
• State government
• Social security funds
• Classifications
• Deal with more cases
Regional accounts
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Methodological enhancements
GVA(P) 'real' measure for ESA10
Balanced estimate of regional GVA
NUTS boundary changes 2015
Regional HHFCE (future aspiration post 2015)
• Key issue – Scottish referendum
Concluding comments
• Set out in detail:
• Plans for Blue Book 14
• Beyond 2014 what’s planned
• For Flow of funds
• For Quarterly SUT
• For next year need to include response to
NSQR
Any Questions?