Transcript Emerging market economy risks

Part A:
Emerging market
economy risks
Chart A.1 The United Kingdom is linked to EMEs through several
channels
Topology of UK financial system exposures to EMEs
Sources: BIS Consolidated Banking Statistics, IMF Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey and Direction of Trade Statistics and Bank calculations.
Chart A.2 UK banks have significant exposures to Asia
Banking system exposures to China, Hong Kong and other EMEs(a)(b)
Sources: BIS Consolidated Banking Statistics, SNL Financial and Bank calculations.
(a) Foreign claims of domestically-owned banks on an ultimate risk basis, as at 2015 Q2. CET1 capital as at 2015 H1.
(b) Some countries do not publish the full breakdown of EME exposures. Where exposures to China are not published, they are included in other emerging Asia. Where
other exposures are not published, they are included in other emerging markets. Netherlands does not publish exposures to China. Sweden does not publish exposures
to Latin America.
Chart A.3 Credit gaps in EMEs have been rising as advanced economies
have deleveraged
Deviation of credit to GDP ratio from long-term trend(a)(b)
Sources: BIS Total credit statistics and Bank calculations.
(a) Raw data have been adjusted for breaks.
(b) Credit to GDP gaps use a one-sided HP filter with a (BIS-consistent) smoothing parameter of 400,000. Credit by all creditors to domestic private non-financial sector.
Chart A.4 Successive IMF forecasts of EME GDP growth have been
revised down
IMF forecasts for growth in EMEs
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook.
Chart A.5 Net capital flows to EMEs fell in 2015
Net capital flows to emerging market economies(a)
Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2015) and Bank calculations.
(a) Latin America comprises Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru; Emerging Asia excluding China comprises India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand;
Emerging Europe comprises Poland, Romania, Russia and Turkey.
Chart A.6 EME-focused mutual funds have seen net outflows since
August
Cumulative flows from EME equity and bond-focused mutual funds as per cent of assets under
management
Sources: EPFR Global and Bank calculations.
(a) From 17 September 2008.
(b) From 22 May 2013.
(c) From 12 August 2015.
Chart A.7 Commodity exporters have seen particularly large exchange
rate depreciations
Change in sovereign bond spreads and currency depreciation in EMEs(a)
Sources: JPMorgan Chase & Co., Thomson Reuters Datastream and Bank calculations.
(a) Between 31 December 2014 and 20 November 2015.
(b) As defined in the IMF World Economic Outlook.
Chart A.8 Refinancing needs for maturing US dollar-denominated bonds
increase in 2017 and 2018
Maturity profile of US dollar-denominated bonds issued by non-financial companies in selected
EMEs(a)
Sources: Dealogic and Bank calculations.
(a) Sample includes non-financial companies in 30 EMEs.
Chart A.9 Many EMEs have high foreign exchange reserve balances
relative to short-term external debts
Ratio of short-term external debts to foreign exchange reserve assets
Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2015) and Bank calculations.
(a) There are no data available for China, Indonesia and Mexico.