Transcript Presentation, Powerpoint 2.4Mb - The Cambridge Trust for New

Capital Flows, International
Imbalances and Economic Policies
in Latin America
‘International Economic Policies, Governance and the New
Economics’, Cambridge University – 12/04/2012
Luiz Fernando de Paula
Professor at the University of the State
of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), Brazil
Aline M. Gomes
Research Assistant, UERJ
Stilized facts
• Empirical literature shows evidence that capital flows to Latin
America have been most determined by push factors (for
instance, economic policy of the developed countries) rather
than to pull factors (associated to domestic factors).
• After a succession of currency crises, Latin American countries
adopted floating exchange regime but at the same time have
made use of foreign exchange reserves accumulation policy and
reduction of public external debt in order to reduce external
vulnerability.
• More recently, due to the implementation of the ‘easing’
monetary policy in the U.S. and Eurozone, combined with the
attraction of FDI due to the commodities boom, capital inflows
to Latin America have increased a great deal. This trend has put
pressure on the economic policy of countries of the region and
has had consequences in the real side of the economy (output,
industry, etc.)
Objetives and questions...
• To analyze the causes and consequences of the
recent capital flows boom to Latin America
(LA), focusing in the major countries of the
region (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia,
Mexico, Peru and Venezuela).
• Are there specific determinants and features
in the recent wave of capital inflows to LA?
• Why LA countries succeed in facing the
contagious of the international financial crisis?
• Have LA countries succeed in managing capital
flows?
Theoretical benefits of international
financial integration
International Financial Integration
Indirect Channels
Direct Channels
. Augmentation of domestic savings
. Promotion of specialization
. Lower cost of capital due to better
risk allocation
. Inducement for better policies
. Smooth consumption over time
. Enhancement of capital inflows by
signaling better policies
. Transfer of technology
. Development of financial sector
Higher Economic Growth
Source: Adapted from Prasad et al (2003, p. 24)
Problems related to capital flows
• Tobin (1978): “The main macroeconomic problem related
to the integrated financial markets is not the choice of the
appropriate exchange rate regime but the excessive capital
mobility that reduces the autonomy of national
governments to pursue domestic objectives”.
• Stiglitz (2000): Capital flows in emerging countries are
markedly pro-cyclical as exacerbate economic boom and
expose them to the changes in the economic circumstances
outside the country.
• Kregel (2008): Washington Consensus policies in Latin
America implemented domestic policies (exchange rate
anchor, high interest rates, and financial liberalization) that
hinder the domestic productive and technological restructuring that could contribute to boost economic and
employment growth in the region .
Assymetric financial integration
• Empirical studies show that in general
exchange rate volatility is higher in emerging
economies than in developed ones as the
former have small and less liquid foreign
exchange markets.
• In other words, such countries have much
larger and volatile capital flows compared to
the size of their capital market and
economies.
Factors affecting capital inflows in EMEs
Cyclical
Push
- Low US interest rates
- Low global risk aversion
- Strained advanced
economies balance sheets
Pull
- High commodity prices
- High domestic interest
rates
Structural
- International portfolio
diversification
- Low advanced economies
potential growth
- Capital account
liberalization (during the
1990s and after the Asian
crisis)
- High emerging economies
potential growth
- Trade openness
What can we learn from the empirical literature on
capital flows?
• Fluctuations in net flows are much sharper for emerging market
economies (EMEs) compared with advanced economies (AEs) –
in the latter, gross outflows largely offset gross inflows,
generating smoother movements in net flows (IMF, 2011a).
• Episodes of large capital inflows are associated with acceleration
of GDP growth, but afterwards growth often drops significantly
(Cardarelli et al, 2009). So, there is an inverted V-shaped pattern
of net capital flows to EMEs around outside the policymakers
control (IMF, 2011b).
• Historically, portfolio flows have been more volatile and their
volatility has recently risen. Bank flows have historically been
less volatile but their volatility rises sharply around crisis times.
FDI is only slightly more stable than other types of flow for
EMEs, and its volatility has increased recently due to increase of
direct borrowing by firm subsidiary (IMF, 2011b).
Recent waves of capital flows to EMs
• 1st wave (early 1990s until 1997-1998 Asian crisis):
- Initial impulse given by the expansionary monetary policy in the USA.
- Predominance of portfolio flows and FDI.
- Most EMEs made use of some sort of intermediary exchange rate regime
or semi-pegged ones.
• 2nd wave (2006-2008)
- Much stronger current account positions for most EMEs, and
substantial acceleration in the accumulation of foreign reserves.
- Period of “great moderation”. (low interest rates)
- Predominance of net FDI flows relative to net financial flows (portfolio
and other flows) in all EMEs regions.
• 3rd wave (since 2009Q3): recovery driven primarily by portfolio flows,
and secondarily by FDI.
- “Quantitative easing” and slow economic recovery of AEs.
- Better economic performance of the EMEs.
Washington Consensus and New
Consensus on Macroeconomics in LA
• LAs countries adopted liberal reforms (privatization, trade
liberalization and capital account liberalization) during the 1990s,
but with different styles. For instance while Argentina adopted a
“big bang” reform, Brazil adopted a more gradual reform.
• However, most countries experimented a quick and deep process of
capital account liberalization, including portfolio capital
liberalization for both residents and non-residents.
• After the 1990s currency crises, some LA countries adopted a
regime of macroeconomic policy inspired in the NCM: floating
exchange regime, inflation targeting regime, and primary fiscal
surplus. Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico in 1999, and Peru in
2002.
• However, this ‘model’ of economic policy has been managed with
some flexibility, before and after the 2007-08 international crisis.
Financial account (net balance in US$ billion)
Commodity price index (2005 = 100)
Foreign exchange reserves
(US$ billion)
Public external debt (% GDP)
Overall fiscal balance (% GDP)
External debt-over-exports
GDP growth (%)
Real effective exchange rate
(2000=100)
Current account-over-GDP
Industrial exports-over-total exports (%)
Some conclusions...
• Capital flows have been volatile in LA, with predominance of
portfolio capitals and FDI. Since mid-2009 there is a quick
recovery of capital inflows.
• There was a quick and deep contagious of the international
financial crisis in LA, but recovery was also quick. Previous policy
of reduction of external vulnerability plus adoption of floating
exchange rate regime provided some space for contra-cyclical
economic policies.
• However, for most economies there is a gradual trend to real
appreciation of exchange rate due to massive capital flows.
• Current account deficit widened (1.4% of GDP in 2011), due to
increase of imports and income deficit, but still is not so high.
• Trend to re-primarization of exports and des-industrialization:
“Dutch desease”? Concern about sustained and long-term
growth....
Economic policies
• International reserves have increased again (except
Argentina and Venezuela) and sterelization policies (issuing
debt) have been adopted in various countries.
• Some countries have introduced some controls on capital
inflows: Brazil reistated the tax on portfolio inflows to
discourage carry trade, and Peru introduced reserve
requeriments (120%) for nonresidents’ deposits.
• Argentina has used a managed floating exchange regime,
with strong intervention in foreign exchange market, but
recently increase of inflation has resulted in real exchange
rate appreciation.
• Mexico is becoming a ‘outlier’ in LA, in terms of economic
dynamism , due to its dependence to the American
performance (‘maquiladoras’).
Perspectives....
• Massive capital inflows trend...what to do to face it?
• For multiplicity of policy objectives, economic
authorities should actively search for more instruments
(capital controls, prudencial measures on credit, etc.).
• How to be compatible inflation targeting with
exchange rate targeting? Mix of sterelization + capital
controls + fiscal restraint + low interest rate (Frenkel
and Rapetti, 2011).
• To evaluate seriously the efficacy of capital controls:
price-based or quantitative controls? Capital controls
should be dynamically adjusted to compensate the
tendency of financial markets to elude them.