Transcript ARE disasters good for the economy?

Activity
Are Disasters Good for the Economy?
Directions:
• Distribute the clues so that each person is holding at least one
clue.
•Clues #1-4: Black Death, #5-8: Spanish Flu,
#9-10: Hurricane Katrina
•Share the clues in a round-robin fashion, putting each clue into
one of the following piles:
•Relevant to solving the problem
•Not helpful in solving the problem
•Not sure
•Answer the question: ARE disasters good for the economy?
•Determine the least # of clues necessary to answer the question.
•Be prepared to defend your answer & clue selection.
Table of Contents

Introduction
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
Lesson 1:
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When Disaster Strikes, What Can Government Do?
Lesson 4:
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When Disaster Strikes, What Can Markets Do?
Lesson 3:
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Are Disasters Good for the Economy?
Lesson 2:
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Disasters Addendum
When Disaster Strikes, What Can We Do?
Lesson 5:
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Teaching about Disasters
Lesson 1:
Are Disasters Good for the Economy?
Halifax
Dec 1917
Great Ice
Storm
Jan 1998
Hurricane
Juan
Sept 2003
NO! NO! NO! NO! NO! NO! NO!
Scarcity IS
Resources are limited
Resources are necessary for production
(output ƒ resources)
Disasters increase resource scarcity
(disasters destroy land, labor &/or capital)
Output must be lower than it would have
been had the disaster not occurred
GDP
Activity Clue #9:
J.P. Morgan senior economist Anthony Chan:
"Preliminary estimates indicate 60 percent damage to
downtown New Orleans. Plenty of cleanup work and
rebuilding will follow in all the areas. That means over
the next 12 months, there will be lots of job creation,
which is good for the economy."
Terminology & Measurement:
•What do we mean by “the economy”? 2 options
•output = real GDP
•well-being” or standard of living = real GDP/capita
or
•economic growth:
•increase in real GDP &/or real GDP/capita
•???? Confusion ???? : Did he mean level or rate?
“What Is Poverty & Who Are the Poor?”
Is Capitalism Good for the Poor? www/fte.org/capitalism
Level vs. Rate
Economic Growth pre & post Disaster
Rate?
Level?
O
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p
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QD
Time
D B
disaster
bottom
Economic Growth:
Rate?
Level?
O
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p
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QD
Time
D
disaster
R
recovery
Economic Growth:
Rate?
Level?
When ?
O
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p
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Q
Time
Economic Growth:
Rate?
Level?
When ?
O
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p
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Q
Time
Economic Growth
NO Evidence for this Scenario
O
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p
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Time
Activity Clue #9:
J.P. Morgan senior economist Anthony Chan:
"Preliminary estimates indicate 60 percent damage to
downtown New Orleans. Plenty of cleanup work and
rebuilding will follow in all the areas. That means over
the next 12 months, there will be lots of job creation,
which is good for the economy."
Models: Tools of Economic Reasoning
Production Possibilities Frontier (PPF)
Assumptions of the Model:
1. All resources are used to produce
the 2 categories of products on the X
and Y axes
2. At all points on the curve, all
resources are fully employed, given
the available technology.
(we choose from the possibilities)
x
Models: Tools of Economic Reasoning
Production Possibilities Frontier (PPF)
Assumptions of the Model:
3. Technological improvements or the
discovery of new resources makes
more production possible. The
curve moves “out,” to the right.
4. Destruction of resources or
technology makes less production
possible; the curve moves “in” and
“down,” to the left.
Productivity: output per unit of input
ƒ { human capital, physical capital }
• skills & talents
• buildings
• education
• machines & tools
• training
• technology
Labor Productivity: output per person-hour
ƒ {availability of capital}
Effect of population change in economy with little capital
Capital to Labor Ratio
ratio falls
ratio rises
ratio falls
ratio rises
ratio falls
ratio rises
ratio falls
ratio rises
ratio falls
ratio rises
ratio falls
ratio rises
ratio falls
ratio rises
Are Disasters Good for the Economy?
NO! NO! NO! NO! NO!
•Resources are destroyed
•Total output ( real GDP) falls
The PPF always
shrinks:
Why Might Disasters SEEM To Be
Good for the Economy?
economic “well-being” standard of living (real GDP/capita)
When capital to
labor ratios rise,
real GDP/capita
may rise – even as
total real GDP falls
Activity Clue #9:
J.P. Morgan senior economist Anthony Chan:
"Preliminary estimates indicate 60 percent damage to
downtown New Orleans. Plenty of cleanup work and
rebuilding will follow in all the areas. That means over
the next 12 months, there will be lots of job creation,
which is good for the economy."
Questions to Ask:
•Is this a credible source?
•If so, are the standards for comparison specified?
(What are you measuring?)
Frédéric Bastiat
“There is only one difference
between a bad economist and a
good one: the bad economist
confines himself to the visible
effect; the good economist takes
into account both the effect
that can be seen and those
effects that must be foreseen.”
“What Is Seen and What Is Not Seen”
Economic Sophisms, 1845
“The Broken
Window Fallacy”
Suppose James
Goodfellow’s son
breaks a window?
"It's an ill wind that blows nobody some good. Such accidents keep
industry going. Everybody has to make a living. What would become
of the glaziers if no one ever broke a window?"
. . . Suppose that it will cost six francs to repair the
damage. . . . The glazier will come, do his job,
receive six francs, congratulate himself, and bless
in his heart the careless child. That is what is
seen.
But if, by way of deduction, you conclude, as
happens only too often, that it is good to break
windows, that it helps to circulate money, that it
results in encouraging industry in general, I am
obliged to cry out: That will never do! Your
theory stops at what is seen. It does not take
account of what is not seen.”
It is not seen that if he had not had a
windowpane to replace, he would have
replaced, for example, his worn-out shoes or
added another book to his library.
Let us next consider industry in general. The
window having been broken, the glass
industry gets six francs' worth of
encouragement; that is what is seen.
If the window had not been broken, the shoe
industry (or some other) would have received
six francs' worth of encouragement; that is
what is not seen.
Frédéric Bastiat
. . . Destruction is not profitable.”
He Should Know Better:
"Ghastly as it may seem to say this, the terror attack . .
. could do some economic good." [. . . destruction will
stimulate the economy through business investment in
rebuilding] .
Paul Krugman, Princeton University
New York Times, Sept. 14, 2001
Bastiat Hasn’t Been Forgotten:
We know this has to be fishy just by asking: Would there
have been even greater "economic good" had the
terrorists succeeded in destroying buildings in Los
Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston
and all other major cities? Of course, you and I know that
is utter nonsense. Property destruction always lowers the
wealth of a nation. I hope one of Krugman's students asks
him, "If property destruction is good for the economy, why
aren't Beirut and Belfast boom towns?
Walter Williams, George Mason University
http://www.jewishworldreview.com/cols/williams100401.asp
"If property destruction is good for the
economy, why aren't Beirut and Belfast
boom towns?”
Are Disasters Good for the Economy?
1. How do we measure non-tangible human loss?
Are Disasters Good for the Economy?
2. How do we measure what might-have-been?
Disaster casualties – immediate
AND future losses
Paul Ehrlich
Julian Simon
“The Ultimate Resource – Is Human
Intelligence in a Free Society”
Julian Simon
“[The] . . . more people
there are, the more minds
that are working to
discover new sources and
increase productivity. . . .”
Knowledge & Productivity
“The source of . . . improvements in
productivity is the human mind, and a human
mind is seldom found apart from a human
body. And because improvements – their
invention and their adoption – come from
people, the amount of improvement plainly
depends on the number of people available to
use their minds.”
(Simon, The Ultimate Resource 2, 372)
Productivity & Population
“[The] data show clearly that
the bigger the population of a
country, the greater the
number of scientists and the
larger the amount of scientific
knowledge produced; more
specifically . . . scientific
output is proportional to
population size, in countries
at the same level of income.”
(Simon, The Ultimate Resource 2, 380,
385)
Not Just Rocket Science . . .
“. . . The main contribution
that additional persons make
to society is the new
knowledge of all kinds –
scientific, organizational, and
everyday knowledge . . . –
that they create and leave
behind them. And to repeat
an earlier statement, these
gains are the result not only
of geniuses but of a real
number of work-a-day
ingenious people.” (Simon,
Ultimate Resource 2, 380 & 385)
Not Everyone Is Hurt By Disasters
Fallacy of Composition: To erroneously assume that what
is true of the whole is true of an individual
National Voluntary Content Standards in Economics:
Standard 15, Benchmark, Grade 12: Economic growth
creates new employment and profit opportunities in some
industries, but growth reduces opportunities in others.
Translation:
Economic change creates winners and losers.
And the Winners Are . . .
The Big Ideas from Lesson 1
Disaster-related economic change creates
losses for some and opportunities for
others.
 Disasters do increase scarcity and reduce
output.
 While the rate of economic growth during
disaster recovery may exceed that before
the disaster, it proceeds from a lower
level.
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