Transcript 33 Zimbabwe and Development

ZIMBABWE
What impact is Mugabe having on it’s development?
This presentation looks at
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Robert Mugabe’s rule in Zimbabwe
Social/Economic and political status of Zimbabwe
Prospects for improved development
ROBERT MUGABE
White-only rule in Zimbabwe ended in 1980 when Robert
Mugabe of the Zimbabwe African National Union (now
ZANU-PF) became the country’s leader. Mr Mugabe and
his party have ruled Zimbabwe ever since.
Mugabe has promised to rule until he is 100. In February
2009, Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai joined the new,
Inclusive Government of Zimbabwe. The coalition has
been a fragile one, with Mugabe keen to retain his
supporters in important positions.
Zimbabwe is a fascinating, and disturbing, example of
development. Zimbabwe, which used to be known as the
“bread basket of Africa” has the lowest life expectancy in
the world.
The average Zimbabwean can only expect to live to 43
years of age.
OPERATION MURAMBATSVINA
In 2005, the Zimbabwean police attacked and destroyed the homes of squatters in the Porta Farm area in Harare. The
initiative, named Operation Murambatsvina (Drive Out Rubbish) was condemned by the United Nations. Mugabe, who
claims to be a Marxist, claims the operation was designed to crack down on black-market trading and other criminal
activity in slum areas.
However, the UN report said that the programme had been carried out in "an indiscriminate and unjustified manner,
with indifference to human suffering". Hundreds of thousands of homes in the country's shanty towns were torched and
bulldozed.
Murambatsvina
COLONIALISM
Zimbabwe used to be known as Rhodesia, after the (in)famous,
depending on your point of view, "explorer" Cecil Rhodes.
In 1979, Rhodesia, which borders with South Africa, had a
revolution which overthrew Prime Minister Ian Smith (left) and
placed Robert Mugabe in power.
Colonialism left behind a land tenure structure which left most of
the best land in the hands of large, commercial farms. Poor, black,
families were concentrated in the least fertile land, mostly on tiny
land holdings.
Black Zimbabweans worked on the land, but had no property
rights and, crucially, few skills in managing the complex business
of agriculture.
Colonialism also left behind an economy which was dependent on
cash crops. In Zimbabwe’s case; maize and tobacco. If anything
happens to these two crops, the Zimbabwean economy will
always be in real trouble. It has and it is.
POOR GOVERNANCE: CURRENCY
COLLAPSE
Between 2005 and 2008, Zimbabwe suffered economic meltdown, characterised by shortages of foreign currency, electricity,
fuel, food, medicine and basic commodities.
In August 2006, Zimbabwe scrapped the old currency and brought in a new one. Most people stashed bags of money at home
as the prices of goods and services climbed almost every few days. Others, people who live around shopping centres went on
shopping sprees, with some spending as much as $300 million on an assortment of goods.
In 2009, the Inclusive Government introduced the US dollar as the nation’s currency.
Gold For Bread
POOR GOVERNANCE: GENERAL
ELECTION 2005
Mr Mugabe's party, ZANU-PF, romped to victory in the 2005 parliamentary election, capturing 78 of the 120 seats that were
contested. The campaign was less violent than previous parliamentary and presidential ones in 2000 and 2002.
This was because the poll was so expertly rigged that there was no need to kill people. An old and inaccurate voters' roll was
kept under wraps. Perhaps 2m names out of 5.7 million were of voters who were either dead, fictitious or no longer living at
the address listed. Expatriate Zimbabweans on the state payroll were allowed to vote, but those who had emigrated to
escape poverty or the attentions of Mr Mugabe's youth militia—a number estimated at perhaps half the adult population—
were disfranchised.
POOR GOVERNANCE: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
2008
Mugabe declares himself President
Mugabe was re-elected President in a controversial one-man race.
The opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), pulled out of the run-off election, saying its
supporters were being attacked and killed.
Morgan Tsvangirai, MDC leader, said he did not want to be part of an illegitimate process. Mugabe was reported as
saying that as "only God" can remove him, what was the point of Tsvangirai going through the motions?
POOR GOVERNANCE: LAND REFORM
In November 2001 Mugabe’s Government embarked on a "fast track" policy of land redistribution. In effect, this meant the
farms of white farmers were violently taken by friends and supporters of Mugabe’s ruling political party. The country was
thrown into complete chaos.
These farms which used to be the country’s main foreign exchange earner now lie empty or are used as second homes by
Mugabe’s political supporters. Mugabe and his wife Grace have occupied 12 of the most productive farms.
White farms 2009
ISOLATION
Mugabe’s Zimbabwe was the first elected government to be
excluded from the Commonwealth for contravening the democratic
principles agreed at the 1991 Harare conference.
In 2004, Zimbabwe formally resigned from the Commonwealth.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will not provide Zimbabwe
with financial aid until the Government pays it’s $1.3 billion arrears
to the World Bank.
THE INCLUSIVE GOVERNMENT
Zimbabwe
UK
The Inclusive Government was formed in February
2009. Robert Mugabe remained President with Morgan
Tsvangerai installed as Prime Minister.
Unemployment Rate
94%
6%
It inherited a fairly grim social economic landscape.
GDP per head
£132
£20,048
Average life expectancy:
43 years
79 years
Infant deaths per 1,000 births
85
6
Doctors per head of population:
0.2
2.3
Adults HIV/AIDS rate
20.1%
0.2
SOME PROGRESS
• Inflation, measured at 500 trillion% in 2008, has been
cut to under 5%.
• Schools and hospitals are now operating more or less
normally.
• Once-empty shops are now stuffed with imported
goods.
• The economy, which shrank by more than half
between 2000 and 2009, has been expanding.
• It is expected to grow by 9% this year
But most of the goods in the shops are unaffordable to
most Zimbabweans
Unemployment remains around 70%
Human rights abuses continue
Economy improves
MUGABE’S FUTURE
There have been Wikileaks speculation that Mugabe is being treated for prostate
cancer. Zanu-PF leaders are terrified of the security and political repercussions of a
swift death.
They do not believe the Zanu-PF could beat the MDC in a Mugabe-less fair election.
Mugabe ill?
KLEPTOCRACY
Mugabe remains determined to loot Zimbabwe for his supporters.
In 2010, without consulting his MDC coalition partners,
Mugabe passed a new law which forces private companies
to give black Zimbabweans a 51% stake in their companies.
This has been a disaster for inward investment.
Mugabe is also desperate to profit from the country’s Marange
diamond field, reputed to be the biggest diamond find in the
history of mankind.
Potential revenue is estimated at $1 billion-$1.7 billion a year; about half of Zimbabwe’s total forecast GDP this year and
enough to end its economic woes almost at a stroke.
The Kimberley Process Certification Scheme, which regulates international diamond trade, currently bans Zimbabwe
from trading due to Zanu-PF human rights abuses and corruption. Mugabe is working hard to have the ban
overturned.
Illegal Diamond Trading
AID TO ZIMBABWE’S PEOPLE
The bulk of DFID funds are provided through the UN and NGOs. DFID has promised to spend £88m each year in aid
projects in Zimbabwe until 2015.
No funds went to or through the Government of Zimbabwe.
DFID states that “if political transition takes place during the period we will significantly scale up the development
programme to help a reforming government”.
THE FUTURE
It is obvious with Zimbabwe that the Mugabe government and bad governance across the board has
been a major contributor to the country’s desperate situation.
The Inclusive Government is starting to win the confidence of international bodies, but judgement on
whether Zimbabwe is being properly governed is still reserved. Perhaps only when Robert Mugabe
leaves office will international confidence in Zimbabwe be restored.