Transcript (Renaud Crassous, Scenarios for transition towards a low

Development pathways towards tight carbon
constraints
Jean Charles Hourcade [email protected]
Christophe Cassen [email protected]
Cired’s program with EPE/IDDRI, the Chair modeling prospective for
sustainable development Paristech, in collaboration with the Coppe (Brazil)
and the University of Ahmenabad (India)
What are the concrete objectives of the program ?
 To scrutinize the world emissions pathways to stabilize
atmospheric CO2 concentration at 450 ppm by the end of the
century
 To understand how some specific sectors would react to this
strong carbon constraint : energy, sheet glass, steel, cement,
aluminum beyond competitiveness issues To understand
how economies would react to this strong carbon constraint
 To explore if different development options (regarding
construction, infrastructure, energy, transportation, territory
planning) would lead to the same result with a reduced
constraint
What means of exploration ?
 An innovative modelling platform :
Macroeconomic
model
IMACLIM-R
Productivity
International
Trade
Financial
Flows
Demography
Growth engine
Development styles
Industrial
sectors
Infrastructures
Car fleets
Energy assumptions
Equipment
stocks
Technology
costs
Technical
progress
Fossil fuels
inventories
Sectoral Energy,
food ,technology,
land-use and urban
model s
+ an iterative dialogue between researchers and industrials
(Renaud Crassous, Scenarios for transition towards a low-carbon world in 2050 :
What’s at stake for heavy industries? With FONDDRI/EPE, 2008)
Example of a Business As Usual scenario
REF
‘Ingredients’ of the scenario:
– Large economic catch-up in emerging and developing countries
– Together with a rapid expansion of infrastructures and equipments
– Median assumptions for energy and technical change
Results – From 2010 to 2050
• World GDP x3.2 (OECD x2, China x4, India x6.5)
• Total primary energy x2
• Raw Material Demand x2 to x3
• Road Transportation x2.6
• 57 Gtons of CO2 emissions
(Renaud Crassous, Scenarios for transition towards a low-carbon world in 2050 :
What’s at stake for heavy industries? With FONDDRI/EPE, 2008)
What Lessons of this rather conventional exercice?
ST1
• A steeply increasing carbon value (up to 220 €/tCO2 in
2030, 430 €/tCO2 in 2050)
• Not so much choice about the future technology portfolio
• A tricky transition for energy-intensive countries (no
regret is not no pain…)
• A critical momentum to avoid carbon-intensive lock-ins
• Risks due to a weak control on some upstream drivers of
emissions (localization patterns, infrastructures, urban
forms)
– One must secure the transition and the long-run
(Renaud Crassous, Scenarios for transition towards a low-carbon world in 2050 :
What’s at stake for heavy industries? With FONDDRI/EPE, 2008)
What Lessons of this rather conventional exercice?
ST1
• A steeply increasing carbon value (up to 220 €/tCO2 in
2030, 430 €/tCO2 in 2050)
• Not so much choice about the future technology portfolio
• A tricky transition for energy-intensive countries (no
regret is not no pain…)
• A critical momentum to avoid carbon-intensive lock-ins
• Risks due to a weak control on some upstream drivers of
emissions (localization patterns, infrastructures, urban
forms)
– One must secure the transition and the long-run
(Renaud Crassous, Scenarios for transition towards a low-carbon world in 2050 :
What’s at stake for heavy industries? With FONDDRI/EPE, 2008)
GDP variation w.r.t. reference scenario (%)
A carbon price only scenario: mind the transition …. and
the end point
2010
0%
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
Annex I
-10%
-12%
non Annex I
-14%
World
-16%
(450ppm CO2 stabilisation scenarios)
Source: Crassous, Sassi, 2008
2090
2100
In search of bifurcations towards alternative pathways
ST2
• The same carbon constraint : a CO2 stabilization at 450 ppm by the end of
the century
• New policy framework:
• internalize broader set of sustainability constraints including local
pollution and poverty
• Play on early action on transportation and building infrastructures, in
relation with changes in the localization of activities and consumption
patterns including mobility,
• Play on a broader set of policy instruments in a ‘second best world’
(decentralized emission trading scheme, carbon taxes, land pricing,
early upfront investments on infrastructures)
(Scenarios for transition towards a low-carbon world in 2050 : What’s at stake for
heavy industries? With FONDDRI/EPE, 2008)
Urban planning: a key challenge to lower the transition
Two ‘polar cases’ may be possible for a climate friendly development:
ST2
- a dispersed city paradigm, with very decentralized energy production
units, mostly renewables,
- a dense city paradigm, with a centralized and optimized energy
production system
Spread
Development
Urban surface
1500 inhab/km2
Dense
Development
100%
Individual houses
0%
10000 inhab/km2
100
700
Nb vehicles / 1000 inhab
(Renaud Crassous, Scenarios for transition towards a low-carbon world in 2050 :
What’s at stake for heavy industries? With FONDDRI/EPE, 2008)
In search of bifurcations towards alternative pathways
ST2
General results
• A slightly reduced carbon constraint (- 12%)
• A significant reduction in the transition cost for some
countries
• Better long-run control of emissions from transportation
• More renewables in the decentralized paradigm
• Less renewables in some centralized area
(Scenarios for transition towards a low-carbon world in 2050 : What’s at stake for
heavy industries? With FONDDRI/EPE, 2008)
An example : towards a low carbon mobility
ST2
MOTORISATION
Motors DU PARC
En2001
2001
En2050
2050
100
80
60
40
20
0
2001
2001
REF
REF
Conventional
Conventionnelle
ST 1
ST 2
STAB 1 STAB 2
Other
(Elec, Hyb, H2)
Autre
(Renaud Crassous, Scenarios for transition towards a low-carbon world in 2050 :
What’s at stake for heavy industries? With FONDDRI/EPE, 2008)
GDP variation w.r.t. reference scenario (%)
Early Action on Infrastructures: reassuring end-points …
and still transition problems
2010
6%
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
Annex I
non Annex I
-14%
-16%
(450ppm CO2 stabilisation scenarios)
Source: Crassous, Sassi, 2008
World
2090
2100
Key messages (1/2)
 A climate impasse with the Business As Usual scenario.
 An increasing carbon value and a strong political engagement necessary to set in
motion the necessary mutations.
 Different development options for transport infrastructures and urban planning :
reduces the transition cost and produces higher economic growth opportunities in the
long term.
 A leading role for the materials producers, in a context of increased demand together
with a decarbonization of their production.
 A significant increase in energy efficiency necessary, as well as massive and rapid
deployment of new technologies : very-low energy buildings and vehicles, CCS, nuclear
and renewables. Without the CCS option, an increased role for nuclear and renewable
energy
(Renaud Crassous, Scenarios for transition towards a low-carbon world in 2050 :
What’s at stake for heavy industries? With FONDDRI/EPE, 2008,)
Key messages (2/2)
 Policies are beneficial over the long run towards but uniform carbon prices (only)
policies are squeezed:
-They hurt emerging economies over the short run
(when the carbon prices are low, relatively low!!!)
- Without preventing risks of lock-in in carbon intensive development pathways
Transtion towars a low carbon society needs strong climate policies with both a
carbon price and change in development styles (urban planning, type of
infrastructures…)
In the absence of fully fledged carbon market, need to articulate financial support
to infrastructure projects and Namas
More information: http://www.imaclim.centre-cired.fr/