Transcript Introduction - University of Michigan

Algeria Tunisia Morocco
Link to syllabus
Link to Algeria Chronology
Link to World Debt Tables
Link to World Debt Tables
Link to Encyclopedia of the Orient
Link to http://i-cias.com/e.o/index.htm
Map of northern Africa
Algeria Map
Algeria Physical
map
Ahmed Ben Balla
Born 1916
President 1963-65
A soldier in the French army
during WWII, he was a founder
of the FLN. Spent several years
in French prisons. Criticized for
inflated ideological rhetoric.
After his overthrow he was kept
under house arrest, then sent
into exile until 1990.
Houari Boumedienne
1932-1978
President 1965-1978
Studied at Islamic Institute and
at al-Azhar in Cairo. Had
become a Coronel in the FLN in
1957.
Pursued socialisant policies,
including nationalization of the
petroleum industry.
Died of an obscure blood disease
Chadli Benjedid
President 1978-1992
Becomes president upon
Boumedienne’s death, pursues a
more moderate line.
Liamine Zeroual
Born 1932
President 1994-99
General who was chosen
President by the military.
his main assignment was to
quell the Islamists – this was
a period of Civil War.
Abdelaziz Bouteflika
Born 1937
President since 1999
Joined FLN upon finishing
secondary school.
Served as Foreign Minister
to Ben Balla and Boumedienne.
Said to present a more upperclass persona, although he has
moderate policies towards
armed Islamists
Algeria: Real GDP/Capita
Algeria
2000
1800
Real GDP/capita
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1880
1900
1920
1940
Year
1960
1980
2000
Samir Amin, 1931Noted Egyptian social scientist. Trained in Paris. Neo-Marxist, believer
in self-reliance. Author of: Accumulation On a World Scale,
Neo-Colonialism in West Africa, The Arab Nation. Worked for U.N.
Economic Committee of Africa.
Algeria: Inflation
Algeria
35
30
Inflation
25
20
15
10
5
0
-51950
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Algeria: Land Use
Algeria: Land Use
10000000
Hectares
8000000
6000000
Land use, arable land
(hectares)
4000000
Land use, irrigated
land (hectares)
2000000
0
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Algeria:
Agricultural
GDP
Algeria:
Ag output
Log Ag Output
1.00E+10
1.00E+09
1.00E+08
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Algeria: Debt Service Ratios
Algeria:
Debt Service Ratios
100
25
80
20
60
15
40
10
20
5
0
1970
0
1980
1990
Year
2000
Total debt service (%
of exports of goods
and services)
Total debt service (%
of GNI)
20
50
15
40
30
10
20
5
10
0
1960
0
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Aid per capita ($)
Aid (% of GNI)
Algeria:
Foreign
Aid
Algeria:
Foreign
Aid
Aid (% of GNI)
Aid per capita
(current US$)
Seasonal labor migration in French North Africa, 1930
Source: Neil Macmaster, “Labour Migration in French North Africa,” in
The Cambridge Survey of World Migration
Tunisia
Tunisia Chronology
Link to WDI
Link to syllabus
Link to Encyclopedia of the Orient
Tunisia:
Roads and
Cities
Tunisia: Topographical
Habib Bourguiba
1903-2000
Ruled 1957-1987
Educated in Tunis and at U. of
Paris; married French woman.
Founded Neo-Destour Party.
Moderate secularist, with echoes
of Ataturk in his policies.
Dynamic personality, but was
in power too long, as his health
gave out. Was eventually
overthrown by his Prime
Minister.
Zine el Abidine Ben Ali
Born 1936
President since 1987
Seen as controlling Islamist
radicals, while bringing Islam
back into Tunisian society.
Has maintained international
presence of Tunisia.
Link to book ad
Comments on Events in Tunisia
Ben Ali’s ousting was incredibly rapid, and unexpected
Why this ‘revolution’?
Corruption, especially around the president, and his wife’s clan
Lack of democracy
The role of economic policy was present, but subsidiary
Errors/miscalculations on the part of their security people, “FBI”
Strong organizing role of labor unions andapparently of Communist
Party; minimal role of Islamists
No one knows where it will end up.
Democratic election – then, with which parties?
Military government
Continued instability in national leadership
Return of Ben Ali’s group
Suggestive model for regime change in Egypt, Saudi A., Jordan, elsewher
Hypocrisy of France and the U.S.
Types of MENA Political Regimes: Clement and Springborg
Globalization and the Politics of Development in the M.E.
Bunker States
Algeria, Libya, Yemen, Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, Syria
Bully Praetorian States
Egypt, Tunisia, Palestinian Authority
Globalization Monarchies
Arabia, Morocco, Jordan, early Hashemite Iraq
Precarious Democracies
Turkey, Israel, Lebanon, Iran (but slipping into the bully praetorian
category)
Regime types (II)
Bunker states:
Led by social forces that are minorities (Alawi in Syria)
Have little institutional capacity to manage economy
Have largest informal sectors, and low tax rates.
Technocrats have little power to determine policy
Have low financial development
Praetorian Bully States
Rule rests on institutional power of military/security/party
Have large government sectors
Characterized by ‘crony capitalism’ Stifle private sector
Lack political legitimacy
Tunisia: Real GDP/Capita
Tunisia
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Tunisia: Inflation
Inflation
Tunisia
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-101935
1945
1955
1965
Year
1975
1985
1995
Hectares
Tunisia: Land
Land Use
Tunisia:
Use
4000000
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
1960
Land use, arable land
(hectares)
Land use, irrigated
land (hectares)
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Tunisia:
Agricultural
GDP
Tunisia:
Ag GDP
Log Ag Output
10000000000
1000000000
100000000
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
20
250
15
200
150
10
100
5
0
1960
-5
50
0
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
-50
Aid per capita ($)
Aid % of GNI
Tunisia:
Tunisia:Foreign
ForeignAid
Aid
Aid (% of GNI)
Aid per capita
(current US$)
Tunisia:
Debt
Service
Ratios
Tunisia:
Debt
Service
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1970
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1980
1990
Year
2000
Total debt service (%
of exports of goods
and services)
Total debt service (%
of GNI)
Morocco
Morocco Chronology
Link to syllabus
Link to WDI
Link to Encyclopedia of the Orient
Morocco: Cities and Roads
Morocco Topographical
Muhammad 5
1909 - 1961
Sultan 1927-57, king 1957-61
After winning independence for Morocco, he
is able to maintain monarchical system, with
significant aid from the military and police.
King Hassan 2
1929 - 1999
King 1961 – 1999
The oldest son of Muhammad 5,
and father of Muhammad 6.
Studied at schools in Morocco. Had been
head of Royal Armed Forces.
Among the most pro-western leaders of
the region, and most pro-capitalist, while
also clashing with neighboring countries.
Survived several assassination attempts in
the 1970s. Territorial conflicts over Western
Sahara with Mauritania.
King
Muhammad 6
Born 1963
King from 1999
Some education in France, and work
with EU Commission in Brussels.
Expected to continue policies
of his father (and grandfather),
especially with regard to Europe
Morocco: Real GDP/Capita
Morocco
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Morocco: Land Use
Morocco: Land Use
10000000
Hectares
8000000
6000000
Land use, arable land
(hectares)
4000000
Land use, irrigated
land (hectares)
2000000
0
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Morocco: Ag Output
Morocco: Agricultural GDP
Log Ag Output
10000000000
1000000000
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Morocco Foreign Aid
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1960
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Aid per capita $
Aid % of GNI
Morocco: Foreign Aid
Aid (% of GNI)
Aid per capita
(current US$)
Morocco: Debt
Debt Service
Morocco:
ServiceRatios
Ratios
50
15
10
Total debt service (%
of exports of goods
and services)
5
Total debt service (%
of GNI)
40
30
20
10
0
1970
0
1980
1990
Year
2000
Morocco: Inflation
Morocco
70
60
Inflation
50
40
30
20
10
0
-101940
1950
1960
1970
Year
1980
1990
2000
Libya Physical Map
Libya: map of cities and roads
Libya Chronology
Mommar Khadafi
Born 1942 in a tent
Ruler since 1969
Studied at Univ. of Libya,
and military school
Led coup against king.
Said to live a frugal life.
Has supported several
armed movements throughou
the Arab world, including
Lockerbie bombing.
Has moderated with age.
Libya: Inflation Rate
Inflation
Libya
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-51960
-10
-15
1965
1970
1975
1980
Year
1985
1990
1995
2000
Libya: Land Use
Libya: Land Use
2500000
Hectares
2000000
1500000
Land use, arable land
(hectares)
1000000
Land use, irrigated
land (hectares)
500000
0
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Agricultural Output (index)
Libya:
Agricultural
Output Output
(FAO)
Libya:
Agricultural
1000
100
10
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000