Transcript China: Today, Tomorrow and the Transition

China: Today, Tomorrow
and the Transition
Kenneth W. Hunter
Maryland China Initiative, University of Maryland
What is China
China and Our Common Global
Agenda: Looking to 2013 and
Beyond
China components of your
alternative scenarios and plans
What is China?
What westerners see as tourists and
observers vs. the big, diverse and
intense China we experience
China by the maps
China by the numbers
Chinese and American traditions
and temperament
Ken as tourist
What tourists and observers
see
What tourists and observers
see
What tourists and observers
see
What tourists and observers
see
China for tourists and
observers: the Sichuan
earthquake
Experiencing China today
Big
Diverse
Intense
Big, diverse and intense:
massive industrial operations
Big, diverse and intense:
coal powered
Big, diverse and intense:
largest car market
Big, diverse and intense:
more cars
Big, diverse and intense:
construction everywhere
Big, diverse and intense:
more construction
Big, diverse and intense:
massive cement operations
Big, diverse and intense:
small farm agriculture
Big, diverse and intense:
more farms
Big, diverse and intense:
more farms
Big, diverse and intense:
more farms
Big, diverse and intense:
water
Big, diverse and intense:
water
Big, diverse and intense:
water
Big, diverse and intense:
massive production facilities
Big, diverse and intense:
worker protests
Big, diverse and intense:
Massive Factory “Towns”
Big, diverse and intense:
massive rail system
development
Big, diverse and intense:
massive port operations
Big, diverse and intense:
shipping around the world
Big, diverse and intense:
industrial and research parks
Big, diverse and intense:
new environmental
technology industry
Big, diverse and intense:
more environmental industry
Big, diverse and intense:
retailing is taking off
Big, diverse and intense:
development of the
professions -- IT
Big, diverse and intense:
development of the
professions -- finance
Big, diverse and intense:
development of investment
markets
Big, diverse and intense:
huge reserves and currency
pegged to dollar
Big, diverse and intense:
military development
Big, diverse and intense:
military development
Big, diverse and intense:
civilian aircraft
development
China by the maps
Make sure you are using
the correct maps!
China by the maps: The
World as Seen from America
China by the maps: Great
River Systems
China by the maps: borders
China by the maps: Asia as
Seen from Asia
China by the numbers
China by the numbers:
Population
Populations
1.3 billion
Rate of change
0.5
Gender disparity
115 males to 100 females
Civilian labor force
800 million
Labor force distribution:
Agriculture
40 percent
Mfg, mining, utilities, const.
27
Services
33
China by the numbers:
Production
GDP (PPP)
$10 trillion
GDP per capita (PPP)
$7,500
Annual growth rate
8 to 12 percent
Origin of GDP:
Agriculture
11 percent
Mfg, mining, utilities, const. 49 percent
Services
40 percent
China by the numbers:
foreign trade
Exports: percent of GDP
33 percent
Imports: percent of GDP
26 percent
Major exports:
Telecommunications equipment
13 percent
Computers
11
Electrical and semiconductors
11
Clothing
9
China by the numbers:
foreign trade
Imports: percent of GDP
26 percent
Major imports:
Electrical and semiconductors
20
Petroleum and products
15
Iron and steel
9
Professional instruments
6
China by the numbers:
foreign trade
China by the numbers:
Reserves and Currency
Value
Foreign Exchange Reserves
$2,850 billion
Renminbi per dollar:
2005 and earlier
8.2
2007
7.6
2008
6.9
Today
6.6
Resumed gradual appreciation in June 2010
China and U.S. traditions
and temperaments
Chinese traditions and temperament
2,500 + years
And
United States traditions and temperament
250+ years
China and U.S. traditions
and temperaments
A basis for
Convergence,
Co-evolution or
Conflict
through the 21st Century?
China and U.S. traditions
and temperaments
A basis for
Convergence,
Co-evolution or
Conflict
through the 21st Century?
China and Our
Common Global
Agenda
The Questions You
Should Be Asking
China
Component of
Alternative
Scenarios
Ken’s
Patterns of Change and
Leadership and Luck Matrix
China baseline scenario
theme: cautiously optimistic
Barring bad luck and bad leadership,
China will complete its modernization to
catch up and regain a leadership
position in the world in the next few
decades in a process of co-evolution
with the West. Today all of the key
elements of that modernization are midway (1979 to 2040) but have significant
momentum:
China baseline scenario
theme: cautiously optimistic
 Moving all China’s people out of poverty
 Industrialization and urbanization within climate change
limits on a per capita basis
 Science and technology up to date in application with a
few innovations
 Governance institutions with high competence and much
improved ethics but still as a one party system
 Regional political, economic and security relationships
stabilized but still stressed over water and supply chain
protection
 International relationships and participation on a basis of
mutual respect and collaboration where needed
China baseline scenario
theme: cautiously optimistic
The question:
Does China have the momentum,
capacity and resilience to survive
the next globally cascading crisis
and remain in a leadership
position?
China baseline scenario
theme: cautiously optimistic
If yes, China will participate in
shaping the post-crisis global
institutions, which will involve
confronting complexity while
modernizing, streamlining and
rebalancing our institutions.
China baseline scenario
theme: cautiously optimistic
If China fails, all the world will have a
very large problem to deal with
and the next global crisis likely will
be very deep and very long in
duration.
Questions
Kenneth W. Hunter
Senior Fellow
Maryland China Initiative
University of Maryland
Tel: 410-925-7395
E-mail: [email protected] or
[email protected]