Transcript An Overview of Methods for Estimating Urban Populations

The Human Population:
Patterns, Processes, and Problematics
Lecture #10: High & Low Fertility Countries
Paul Sutton
[email protected]
Department of Geography
University of Denver
High Fertility Countries
• Jordan
• India
• Mexico
Jordan: A high Fertility County
(about the size of Indiana with 5.1 million people)
Images of Jordan
Pedi an Ancient City
A Bedoin Man
Downtown Amman
Jordan continued…….
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Jordan is the country with the highest number of Palestinians in it.
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Somewhat arbitratily created after WWI. Previously part of Ottoman Empire.
“Protectorate” of England. Independent in 1946.
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Had land on both sides of the Jordan River but lost it in 1967 attack on Israel
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TFR in 1997 was 4.5; Predicted to be 4.3 in 2003
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Total Population 5.1 million (92% Sunni Muslim)
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Jordan is a small Arab country with inadequate supplies of water and other natural resources
such as oil. The Persian Gulf crisis, which began in August 1990, aggravated Jordan's already
serious economic problems, forcing the government to stop most debt payments and suspend
rescheduling negotiations. Aid from Gulf Arab states, worker remittances, and trade revenues
contracted. Refugees flooded the country, producing serious balance-of-payments problems,
stunting GDP growth, and straining government resources. The economy rebounded in 1992,
largely due to the influx of capital repatriated by workers returning from the Gulf. After
averaging 9% in 1992-95, GDP growth averaged only 1.5% during 1996-99. In an attempt to
spur growth, King ABDALLAH has undertaken limited economic reform, including partial
privatization of some state-owned enterprises and Jordan's entry in January 2000 into the
World Trade Organization (WTrO). Debt, poverty, and unemployment are fundamental
ongoing economic problems.
Jordan: Population Policy & Perceptions
Fertility is high but declining. Nonetheless, the next generation will be
twice as large as this one.
1976 17% of women using contraception. In 1997 that has grown to 36%.
In 1985 40% of men believed God determined family size and opposed
contraception. By 1997 86 % of men and women approved of family
planning.
Government had no population policy until mid 1990’s. Now it wants to
curb growth.
Religious leaders as well as most of the Public believe that family planning
and contraception is consistent with the beliefs of Islam.
Anti-family planning sentiment is primarily espoused by the Palestinian
Liberation Organization (‘secret weapon’) and less educated rural
citizens.
Eco-Environmental disaster possible in the future due to population
outstripping water supply, etc.
India: A High Fertility Country
(about 1/3 the size of the U.S. with 1 billion people)
Images of India
Taj Majal in Agra
Tourists on Elephants in Jaipur
Varanasi Ritual on the Ganges
More Indian Images
India makes more movies than any Street Scene Jaipur Rickshaw & Camel
Other nation in the world
Sacred Cow in Varanasi
Sikh Guards at Golden Temple
India continued…….
Background: The Indus Valley civilization, one of the oldest in the world, goes
back at least 5,000 years. Aryan tribes from the northwest invaded about
1500 B.C.; their merger with the earlier inhabitants created classical Indian
culture. Arab incursions starting in the 8th century and Turkish in 12th
were followed by European traders beginning in the late 15th century. By
the 19th century, Britain had assumed political control of virtually all
Indian lands. Nonviolent resistance to British colonialism under Mohandas
GANDHI and Jawaharlal NEHRU led to independence in 1947. The
subcontinent was divided into the secular state of India and the smaller
Muslim state of Pakistan. A third war between the two countries in 1971
resulted in East Pakistan becoming the separate nation of Bangladesh.
Fundamental concerns in India include the ongoing dispute with Pakistan
over Kashmir, massive overpopulation, environmental degradation,
extensive poverty, and ethnic strife, all this despite impressive gains in
economic investment and output.
Environmental Issues: deforestation; soil erosion; overgrazing; desertification;
air pollution from industrial effluents and vehicle emissions; water pollution
from raw sewage and runoff of agricultural pesticides; tap water is not
potable throughout the country; huge and growing population is
overstraining natural resources
India: Population Policy & Perceptions
Fertility is dropping but still high in India. TFR has gone from 5.9 to 3 from
1971 to 2001. Total Population of India is just over 1 billion.
Northern India more rural and less economically developed than Southern
India and Fertility higher in North (status of women lower in North)
Harvard School of Public Health attempted to reduce Fertility in the state of
the Punjab from 1954-1960. Complete failure. Typical of many attempts to
reduce fertility in India.
Desire for sons a big contributor to high fertility in India. Greater equality of
the sexes in the southern states contributing to fertility decline there.
The state of Kerala, India has had great success in reducing fertility via long
term public policy that encourages a Marxist-style economic development
program.
Indian government sees population growth as a problem and encourages
family planning and population growth control. (45% now use
contraception of one form or another)
Legal age of marriage for women changed from 15 to 18 to reduce population
growth. Indira Ghandi’s anti-natalist policies ousted her from power
Fertility decline is starting in the upper classes and trickling down.
Mexico: A high Fertility Country
Background: The site of advanced Amerindian civilizations,
Mexico came under Spanish rule for three centuries before
achieving independence early in the 19th century. A
devaluation of the peso in late 1994 threw Mexico into
economic turmoil, triggering the worst recession in over half
a century. The nation continues to make an impressive
recovery. Ongoing economic and social concerns include low
real wages, underemployment for a large segment of the
population, inequitable income distribution, and few
advancement opportunities for the largely Amerindian
population in the impoverished southern states.
Images of Mexico
More Images of Mexico
Guanajuato, Mexico
Mexico City
Clear day
Mexico City
Somewhat Polluted
Mexico City
Bad Day
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Mexico Continued….
Total Population: 107 million
11th most populous nation in the world
Fertility Rate did not go down until the 1960’s
TFR has gone from over 6 to 2.9 in the last 50 years
Some of the Mexico’s fertility is sent to the U.S. via
immigration
• President Luis Echeverria was strong Pro-Natalist but changed
his tune in 1974 and made contraception legal and available.
• Environmental Issues: natural fresh water resources scarce
and polluted in north, inaccessible and poor quality in center
and extreme southeast; raw sewage and industrial effluents
polluting rivers in urban areas; deforestation; widespread
erosion; desertification; serious air pollution in the national
capital and urban centers along US-Mexico border
• Abortion is still illegal in Mexico.
Low Fertility Countries
• England
• Japan
• Canada
• The United States
England
size:
Slightly
smaller
than Oregon
Population
60 Million
England continued…
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Background: Great Britain, the dominant industrial and maritime power of the 19th century,
played a leading role in developing parliamentary democracy and in advancing literature and
science. At its zenith, the British Empire stretched over one-fourth of the earth's surface. The
first half of the 20th century saw the UK's strength seriously depleted in two World Wars. The
second half witnessed the dismantling of the Empire and the UK rebuilding itself into a modern
and prosperous European nation. As one of five permanent members of the UN Security
Council, a founding member of NATO, and of the Commonwealth, the UK pursues a global
approach to foreign policy; it currently is weighing the degree of its integration with continental
Europe. A member of the EU, it chose to remain outside of the European Monetary Union for
the time being. Constitutional reform is also a significant issue in the UK. Regional assemblies
with varying degrees of power opened in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland in 1999.
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Environmental Issues: Continues to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (has met Kyoto Protocol
target of a 12.5% reduction from 1990 levels and hopes to reduce even more); small particulate
emissions, largely from vehicular traffic, remain a problem; solid waste continues to rise and
recycling is very limited
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Ethnic Groups: English 81.5%, Scottish 9.6%, Irish 2.4%, Welsh 1.9%, Ulster 1.8%, West
Indian, Indian, Pakistani, and other 2.8%
Images of England
Historical Population Patterns in England
• Industrial Revolution started in England. However; it
wasn’t until 2nd half of 19th century that real wages went
up and drove down fertility.
• During Malthus’ time inflation & job insecurity ruled
the day. Birth rates low at this time
• By 1850 economic conditions improved and initial
response was a rise in birth rate. This was followed by a
long run decline.
• “The availabe historical evidence suggests that the late
marriage regime of early modern Britain entailed systematic
sexual restrain among young adults up to their mid-20s, the
point at which marriage could be realistically anticipated. A
sexual culture of this sort migh lend itself to restraint after
marriage, as well, if and when the need arose.”
England’s
Demographic
Transition
Contemporary Population
Situation in England
• England like most of the rest of Europe with a below
replacement fertility level.
• Aging Population presents many problems associated
with dependency ratio changes.
• English have desired fertility just above replacement
but reality of women working and raising children
makes actual fertility below replacement.
• This is particularly pronounced in Southern Europe
where women bear the double whammy of working and
raising children (see very low fertility in Spain and
Italy)
• In 1800 TFR = 5.6 Today TFR = 1.7
Japan
Size: slightly smaller than California
Population: 127 Million
Japan Continued….
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Background: While retaining its time-honored culture, Japan rapidly absorbed
Western technology during the late 19th and early 20th centuries. After its
devastating defeat in World War II, Japan recovered to become the second most
powerful economy in the world and a staunch ally of the US. While the emperor
retains his throne as a symbol of national unity, actual power rests in networks of
powerful politicians, bureaucrats, and business executives. The economy experienced
a major slowdown in the 1990s following three decades of unprecedented growth.
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Environmental Issues: air pollution from power plant emissions results in acid rain;
acidification of lakes and reservoirs degrading water quality and threatening aquatic
life; Japan is one of the largest consumers of fish and tropical timber, contributing to
the depletion of these resources in Asia and elsewhere
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Ethnic groups: Japanese 99.4%, Korean 0.6% (1999)
Total fertility rate: 1.41 children born/woman (2001 est.)
Net migration rate: 0 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2001 est.)
Images of Japan
Historical Population Patterns in Japan
• 19th century under Tokugawa Shogunate Japan developed
isolated, self-sufficient economy based on commerce. (Similar to
but independent from Europe)
• Economic Development kicked up after Meiji Restoration
between 1878 and 1900.
• By 1920 birth and death rates dropped.
• Fertility controlled by abortion and condom
• Population grew anyway, pro-natalist Government
• TFR 4.5 in 1947 dropped to 2.0 by 1957
• 1950 20% couples used contraception, 60% now (1990’s)
• Fertility high in year of Dragon, low in ‘Fiery Horse’ (1966)
• Abortion rate high in Japan, The Pill only legal in 1999
• Women bear brunt of child rearing may be cause of low fertility
now
Canada
Size: slightly larger than U.S.
Population: 32 million
Canada continued…….
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Background: A land of vast distances and rich natural resources, Canada became a
self-governing dominion in 1867 while retaining ties to the British crown.
Economically and technologically the nation has developed in parallel with the US,
its neighbor to the south across an unfortified border. Its paramount political
problem continues to be the relationship of the province of Quebec, with its Frenchspeaking residents and unique culture, to the remainder of the country.
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Environment - current issues: air pollution and resulting acid rain severely
affecting lakes and damaging forests; metal smelting, coal-burning utilities, and
vehicle emissions impacting on agricultural and forest productivity; ocean waters
becoming contaminated due to agricultural, industrial, mining, and forestry
activities
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Ethnic groups: British Isles origin 28%, French origin 23%, other European
15%, Amerindian 2%, other, mostly Asian, African, Arab 6%, mixed
background 26%
Total fertility rate: 1.6 children born/woman (2001 est.)
Net migration rate: 6.13 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2001 est.)
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Images of Canada
Historical Population Patterns in Canada
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Canada not a carbon-copy of U.S. Demographically
Fertility generally higher in Canada than U.S.
Canada more multi-cultural than U.S.
Quebec fertility was higher for a long time than dropped
very rapidly from 4 in 1956 to 1.4 in 1986
Canadian Fertility decline preceded U.S. by about a
decade
Canada’s baby boom started later & spiked higher
Abortion legalized in Canada 4 years before in U.S.
Surgical Sterilization rates very high in Canada
The United States
Size: About the size of
the United States 
Population: ~300 Million
Background: Britain's American colonies broke with
the mother country in 1776 and were recognized as the
new nation of the United States of America following
the Treaty of Paris in 1783. During the 19th and 20th
centuries, 37 new states were added to the original 13 as
the nation expanded across the North American
continent and acquired a number of overseas
possessions. The two most traumatic experiences in the
nation's history were the Civil War (1861-65) and the
Great Depression of the 1930s. Buoyed by victories in
World Wars I and II and the end of the Cold War in
1991, the US remains the world's most powerful nationstate. The economy is marked by steady growth, low
unemployment and inflation, and rapid advances in
technology
Images of the United States
The United States continued…..
• Area - comparative: about one-half the size of Russia; about three-tenths the
size of Africa; about one-half the size of South America (or slightly larger
than Brazil); slightly larger than China; about two and one-half times the
size of Western Europe
• Environment - current issues: air pollution resulting in acid rain in both the
US and Canada; the US is the largest single emitter of carbon dioxide from
the burning of fossil fuels; water pollution from runoff of pesticides and
fertilizers; very limited natural fresh water resources in much of the western
part of the country require careful management; desertification
• Total fertility rate: 2.06 children born/woman (2001 est.
• Net migration rate: 3.5 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2001 est.)
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Ethnic groups: white 83.5%, black 12.4%, Asian 3.3%, Amerindian 0.8% (1992)
note: a separate listing for Hispanic is not included because the US Census Bureau
considers Hispanic to mean a person of Latin American descent (especially of Cuban,
Mexican, or Puerto Rican origin) living in the US who may be of any race or ethnic
group (white, black, Asian, etc.)
The United States continued…
Economy - overview: The US has the largest and most technologically powerful economy in the
world, with a per capita GDP of $36,200. In this market-oriented economy, private individuals
and business firms make most of the decisions, and government buys needed goods and
services predominantly in the private marketplace. US business firms enjoy considerably
greater flexibility than their counterparts in Western Europe and Japan in decisions to expand
capital plant, lay off surplus workers, and develop new products. At the same time, they face
higher barriers to entry in their rivals' home markets than the barriers to entry of foreign
firms in US markets. US firms are at or near the forefront in technological advances, especially
in computers and in medical, aerospace, and military equipment, although their advantage has
narrowed since the end of World War II. The onrush of technology largely explains the
gradual development of a "two-tier labor market" in which those at the bottom lack the
education and the professional/technical skills of those at the top and, more and more, fail to
get comparable pay raises, health insurance coverage, and other benefits. Since 1975,
practically all the gains in household income have gone to the top 20% of households. The
years 1994-2000 witnessed solid increases in real output, low inflation rates, and a drop in
unemployment to below 5%. Long-term problems include inadequate investment in economic
infrastructure, rapidly rising medical costs of an aging population, sizable trade deficits, and
stagnation of family income in the lower economic groups. Growth weakened in the fourth
quarter of 2000; growth for the year 2001 almost certainly will be substantially lower than the
strong 5% of 2000. The outlook for 2001 is further clouded by the continued economic
problems of Japan, Russia, Indonesia, Brazil, and many other countries.
Historical Population Patterns of
the United States
• Colonial America had TFR of around 8. Higher than any
European country ever had. (scared Malthus)
• CBR in 1800 about 55. Higher than any country today.
Rapid decline of fertility started about 1850. Hit bottom
during the 1930’s depression.
• Motivation for lowered fertility associated with
secularization (happened faster in more tolerant Protestant
denominations: Congregationalists, Presbyterian, Quakers, Unitarians, &
Universalists)
• Mechanism for fertility reduction: coitus interuptus,
abortion, and extended breast-feeding, later age of
marriage
More U.S. population history…
• The Depression showed record low fertility
levels brought about by clandestine use of the
diaphragm, condom, withdrawl, & abstinence.
• Condoms legal to sell because they were
‘prophylactic’ (prevented disease) Not diaphragm
• The Baby Boom