Transcript Social Inclusion, Climate Change and Decision Making for

Social Inclusion, Climate Change and
Decision Making for Australia’s
Urban Settlements
Andrew Beer
Centre for Housing, Urban and
Regional Planning
Introduction
• Impacts of climate change will affect the most
vulnerable in the global population most and will
affect the most vulnerable in Australia to the
greatest degree
• Stern Review on the Economics of Climate
Change (2006) estimated the cost of climate
change at 5% of global GDP
– Significant impacts
• Dislocation via forced migration
• Greater variability and vulnerability in agricultural
production
• Cost of access to water
Social Inclusion and Exclusion
• Social Inclusion conceptually opposite of social exclusion
– Competing definitions
• Social exclusion is a shorthand term for what can happen when people
or areas suffer from a combination of linked problems such as
unemployment, poor skills, low incomes, poor housing, high crime
environments, bad health and family breakdowns.
(socialexclusionunit.gov.uk)
• The question of social exclusion and integration, it can be argued,
largely revolves around access...to decision making, access to
resources, and access to common narratives, which enable social
integration (Mandipour, 1998 p, 7)
– Generally refers to multiple and linked social, economic and
cultural problems within an area or group
• But a contested concept (March 1998) reinforced by the programs of
the EC
Social Inclusion and Exclusion
• Somerville noted three drivers of social
exclusion in advanced economies:
– Disadvantage in labour markets
– Political/legal structures that disenfranchise some
individuals or groups from publicly provided
benefits
– Exclusion as a result of predominant ideologies –
eg racism, sexism, prejudice
Social Inclusion and Climate Change:
How are Australia’s Settlement
Affected?
Social Inclusion and Climate Change:
How are Australia’s Settlement
Affected?
Climate Change, Social Inclusion and
Australian Settlements
• Ist order impacts of climate change
– Direct impacts on the economy, events
• Cyclone Yarsi – reduced GDP by 3%
• Impact of drought
– Cost of structural adjustment as some industries
fail
• Australian industry often dependent on access to
resources
Climate Change, Social Inclusion and
Australian Settlements
• 2nd order impacts
– Infrastructure failure and the need to build better
and higher quality facilities and assets
Climate Change, Social Inclusion and
Australian Settlements
• 3rd order impacts
– The cost of adjusting to failed industries
– Climate change impacts will arrive on top of other
drivers of cchange
change
Left Labour Force
Unemployed/Under-employed
Full time employment
High Mining
High Mining
Manufacturing
Not All Settlements Will
be Affected Equally
Regional Centres/
High Government
Manufacturing
Regional Centres/
High Government
Administrative Services
Administrative Services
Higher
Government
Administrative
Services
•Regional Cities by function at the
2001 Census
• Smaller settlements more likely to be
vulnerable
•More remote settlements more
vulnerable
•Path dependency and ‘lock in’
Mixed Regional
Centres
Higher
Government
Tourism/
Administrative
Leisure
Services
Mixed Regional
Centres
Regional Centres
with Tourism
Tourism/
Leisure
4
8
Kiama
Ocean Grove-Barwon Heads
Bathurst
8
Dubbo
Kiama Goulburn
Ocean Grafton
Grove-Barwon Heads
Tamworth
Wagga Wagga
Mackay
Rockhampton
Toowoomba
Launceston
Lismore
Taree
Bainsdale
Bendigo
Warrnambool
Nambour
Coal Mining
Higher Mining
Coal Mining
Higher Mining
Community Services/ Remote
High
Education High Government Tourism
Administrative
Services
2
12
6
Cessnock-Bellbird
Lithgow
Armidale
Mt Isa
Kalgoorlie-Boulder
6 Pt Hedland
Muswellbrook
12
Singleton Mt Isa
Cessnock-Bellbird
Karratha Kalgoorlie-Boulder
Lithgow
Pt Hedland
Muswellbrook
Singleton
Karratha
High Government
Administrative
Sevices/
Cultural Services
Community Services/ Remote
High
Education High Government
Tourism
3
13
5
Administrative
Services
Ballina
Nowra-Bomaderry Cairns
Broome Coffs Harbour
Sale
Forster-Tuncurry
Townsville 2
13
5
Pt Macquarie
Alice Springs
Sawtell
Broken Hill
Armidale Nowra-Bomaderry
Cairns
Horsham
Pt Augusta
Broome
Sale
Hervey Bay
Townsville
Albany
Alice Springs
Busselton
Broken Hill
Geraldton
Pt Augusta
Agribusiness
High
Manufacturing
Agribusiness
7
Griffith
Murray Bridge
Pt Lincoln
Mildura
7
Bundaberg
Gympie
Griffith
Warwick
9
Mining/ Power
Generation
High 10
Wangaratta Manufacturing
Moe-Yallourn
Pt Pirie
Morwell
Mt Gambier
Traralgon
Kurri Kurri-Weston
9
Whyalla
Murray Bridge
Pt Lincoln
Mildura
Bundaberg
Gympie
Warwick
Wangaratta
Pt Pirie
Mt Gambier
Kurri Kurri-Weston
Whyalla
High Services
Mining/1Power
Generation
Albury
Orange
Ballarat
Colac
Echuca10
Shepparton
Moe-Yallourn
Maryborough
Morwell
Burnie-Somerset
Traralgon
Devonport
Defence
High14
Services
Raymond Terrace
Wodonga
1
Albury
Orange
Ballarat
Colac
Echuca
Shepparton
Maryborough
Burnie-Somerset
Devonport
High
Manufacturing/
Commuters
11 Defence
Maitland
Bacchus March
Gladstone
Bunbury
Mandurah 14
Raymond Terrace
Wodonga
Regional Centres
with Tourism
4
Bathurst
Dubbo
Goulburn
Grafton
Tamworth
Wagga Wagga
Mackay
Rockhampton
Toowoomba
Launceston
Lismore
Taree
Bainsdale
Bendigo
Warrnambool
Nambour
High Government
Administrative
Sevices/
Cultural Services
3
Ballina
Coffs Harbour
Forster-Tuncurry
Pt Macquarie
Sawtell
Horsham
Hervey Bay
Albany
Busselton
Geraldton
High
Manufacturing/
Commuters
11
Maitland
Bacchus March
Gladstone
Bunbury
Mandurah
Impacts will vary by
location
•Human Dimensions of Environmental
Decision Making
• funded by the PSRF
• shadows a biosciences project
entitled ‘Transects for
Environmental Decision Making’
Conclusion
• Anthropogenic climate change will have
complex impacts on Australia’s settlement
system
– Shaped by location
– Economic structure
– Infrastructure
– Decision making capacity/achievement
Conclusion
• Many living in non metropolitan Australia are already
amongst the most disadvantaged Australians
– Higher levels of Indigenous populations
– Lower incomes
– Lower educational attainment
• Further social exclusion is likely
– In the labour market – the compounding impacts of
restructuring associated with climate change
– Political legal structures that reduce access to government
decision making and investment
– Attitudinal exclusion – the ideology of the self reliant
‘bush’ as a barrier to action