Transcript OECD Territorial Review

The OECD Territorial Review of
Småland-Blekinge: Main Trends and
Challenges
William Tompson
Regional Development Policy Division
Directorate for Public Governance and Territorial Development
OECD
Ronneby, 10 November 2011
First, a word of thanks…
• to the members of the local team (Emil Hesse, Helena
Nilsson, Maria Nilsson, Per Schöldberg, Sofia
Westerberg, Carin Karlsson and Lisa Wagnborg for an
outstanding background report and the organisation of a
flawless mission;
• to the two dozen or so colleagues who helped them
compile the report;
• to all our interlocutors in the four counties during the
March and June missions;
• and, in particular, to Per Schöldberg, for acting as guide,
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chauffeur,10advisor
and chaperone
during our missions. 2
Part 1
A LOOK AT THE RECENT
PAST
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Relatively sparse settlement patterns
Population density
A. Population density of Swedish counties (TL3),
2009
B. Range of variation in population density of OECD
TL3 regions and municipalities in Småland-Blekinge,
2007
Even the most densely populated municipality in Kronoberg has a lower
density of population than the sparsest TL3 regions in five OECD countries.
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Increasing concentration of population
Jönköpings
inhabitants
Municipalities
1991
2010
over 50,000
112,277
127,382
20,000 - 50,000
119,698
15,000 - 20,000
Kronobergs
%
inhabitants
Kalmar
%
1991
2010
13%
70,067
83,005
117,587
-2%
27,602
36,183
34,363
-5%
10,000 - 15,000
24,571
23,821
below 10,000
33,924
33,713
total
326,653
336,866
inhabitants
1991
2010
18%
56,498
62,815
27,297
-1%
88,023
35,888
34,405
-4%
-3%
36,051
-1%
9,004
%
inhabitants
%
1991
2010
11%
59,279
64,032
8%
82,020
-7%
60,529
59,397
-2%
32,955
29,169
-11%
31,360
29,798
-5%
31,094
-14% 49,369
46,793
-5%
0
0
0%
8,139
-10% 15,038
12,739
-15%
0
0
0%
241,883
233,536
178,612 183,940
1.0%
Blekinge
population growth 1991-2009
151,168 153,227
population density
100
90
Demographic
trends in the
region mirror
national
trends on a
smaller scale
0.5%
80
70
0.0%
60
50
-0.5%
40
30
-1.0%
20
10
-1.5%
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Sweden remains a high-productivity economy
Productivity per hour worked in Sweden and OECD countries, 1970-2008
according to the figure
100=US productivity per hour worked
Sweden
OECD 30
G7
95
90
85
80
75
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2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
70
6
The counties are not closing the productivity gap…
GDP per worker in the four counties relative to the national average, 1995-2008
Blekinge
Jönköpings
Kronobergs
Kalmar
105%
100%
95%
90%
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2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
80%
1995
85%
7
…But their performance compares well with
that of OECD peers
Småland-Blekinge counties exceeded the average rate of productivity growth for
growth in GDP per worker in PPP 1995-2007
high-productivity rural regions by almost one full percentage point (0.85 pp)
over 1995-2007 – equivalent to an 11% productivity “bonus” over the period.
10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
10 000
OECD average
Blekinge
Kronobergs
Jönköpings
Kalmar
OECD average
y = -7E-07x + 0.0454
20 000
predominantly rural
Småland Blekinge
Linear (predominantly rural)
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
Initial GDP per worker in current PPP 1995
Only 30% of high-productivity rural regions in the OECD area recorded higher
rates of productivity growth.
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Growth performance has likewise been
unspectacular in a Swedish context…
4.0%
GDP per capita growth in PPP 1995-2007
Sweden average
3.5%
Västra Götalands
Blekinge
3.0%
Jönköpings
Södermanlands
Örebro
2.5%
Stockholms
Norrbottens
Dalarnas
Kronobergs
Skåne
Uppsala
Sweden average
average of Swedish regions
Kalmar
2.0%
OECD average
Jämtlands
Gotlands
1.5%
1.0%
17,000
19,000
21,000
Hallands
Gävleborgs
23,000
Västernorrlands
25,000
27,000
29,000
31,000
33,000
35,000
Initial GDP per capita in PPP 1995
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GDP per capita growth in PPP 1995-2007
…but relatively strong compared to other
OECD regions
9.5%
8.5%
7.5%
6.5%
5.5%
4.5%
3.5%
2.5%
1.5%
0.5%
-0.5%
-1.5%
-2.5%
-3.5%
OECD average
Blekinge
Jönköpings
Kronobergs
Kalmar
0
10,000
20,000
OECD average
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Initial GDP per capita in PPP 1995
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Blekinge
Kalmar
Kronoberg
Halland
Gotland
Jönköping
Norrbotten
Västmanland
standard deviation
Jämtland
Södermanland
Gävleborg
Västernorrland
Östergötland
Uppsala
Västerbotten
Skåne
Örebro
Västra Götaland
Värmland
Dalarna
Stockholm
The counties suffer from exceptional
volatility of growth
annual average growth GDPpc 1980-2008
15%
13%
11%
9%
7%
5%
3%
1%
-1%
-3%
-5%
-7%
-9%
-11%
-13%
-15%
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Their business cycles reflect this
Jönköping
Kronoberg
Kalmar
Sweden
Blekinge
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
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08-09
07-08
06-07
04-05
03-04
02-03
01-02
00-01
99-00
98-99
97-98
96-97
95-96
94-95
93-94
92-93
91-92
90-91
89-90
88-89
87-88
86-87
85-86
84-85
83-84
82-83
81-82
80-81
-20.0%
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The labour-market impact of the crisis was
thus particularly severe
5.0
Sweden average -- ER
Unemployment rate change, 2007-2009
4.5
4.0
Kronobergs
Kalmar Gävleborgs Södermanlands
3.5
Örebro
Värmlands
Västra Götalands
Jämtlands
Västernorrlands Dalarnas
Jönköpings
Östergötlands
Gotlands
Västerbottens
Västmanlands
Norrbottens
Hallands
Skåne
Blekinge
Uppsala
Stockholms
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
Sweden average -- UR
0.5
0.0
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Employment rate change, 2007-2009
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Which is linked in part to their
economic structure
Specialisation index in mining, quarrying and manufacturing, 1995-2008
6 Jönköpings län
7 Kronobergs län
8 Kalmar län
10 Blekinge län
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
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2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1.0
1995
1.1
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The counties are heavily specialised in
goods production
Structure of GDP by economic sector: the four counties and Sweden
Fin.insti., real
estate and
business
activities, R&D
26.3%
Wholesale and
retail trade;
transport and
warehousing; post
and telecom.
17.9%
2.7%
23.9%
16.8%
17.4%
Kalmar
3.5%
19.7%
13.6%
13.7%
Blekinge
3.0%
22.5%
13.2%
14.9%
Sweden
1.6%
16.2%
16.6%
22.6%
Agriculture,
forestry,
hunting and
fishing
Manufacturing,
mining and
quarrying
Jönköpings
2.6%
Kronobergs
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13.6%
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Specialisation in low- and medium-low
tech industries
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Specialisation in high-tech and
knowledge-intensive sectors
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Net outward commuting is modest but rising
Outward commuting flows, 2009
2009
Blekinge Jönköpings Kalmar
Blekinge
89.9%
0.0%
1.1%
Jönköpings
0.0%
93.8%
0.3%
Kalmar
0.6%
0.6%
92.7%
Kronobergs
0.6%
1.3%
0.9%
Dayactive pop 60195
147981
93760
Kronobergs sum counties Metropolitan
1.6%
2.7%
5.2%
0.7%
1.0%
2.1%
1.2%
2.4%
1.3%
91.8%
2.8%
2.4%
81694
383630
9533
Other
2.2%
3.1%
3.6%
3.0%
11918
Night active pop
62475
150247
97967
80660
391349
Inward commuting flows, 2009
County of residence
Metro regions Skåne
Stockholm
Västra Götaland
Other
Gotland
Halland
Södermanland
Uppsala
Västerbotten
Västernorrland
Västmanland
Östergötland
Blekinge
3.67%
0.53%
0.28%
0.00%
0.02%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.02%
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Jönköping
0.15%
0.25%
1.36%
0.00%
0.54%
0.01%
0.03%
0.01%
0.01%
0.01%
1.02%
County of work
Kalmar
0.13%
0.25%
0.09%
0.02%
0.01%
0.00%
0.02%
0.00%
0.00%
0.02%
0.57%
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Kronoberg
3.63%
0.25%
0.25%
0.01%
0.74%
0.00%
0.03%
0.00%
0.00%
0.03%
0.08%
Total
1.44%
0.29%
0.64%
0.01%
0.37%
0.00%
0.02%
0.00%
0.00%
0.02%
0.55%
18
Functional labour markets are growing
Local labour-market areas in Småland-Blekinge
1980
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Gender differences are declining in employment…
Employment rates
Men
2009
2008
2007
2006
Kalmar
2005
2003
2002
Sweden
2001
Kronobergs
Blekinge
2000
1995
2009
2000
2008
0.69
2007
0.65
2006
0.71
2005
0.67
2004
0.73
2003
0.75
0.69
2002
0.71
2001
0.77
1999
0.73
1998
0.79
1997
0.75
1996
0.81
1995
0.77
Jönköpings
1999
Kalmar
1998
Sweden
1997
Kronobergs
Blekinge
1996
Jönköpings
2004
Women
Unemployment rates
Female unemployment rates
Jönköpings
Kronobergs
Blekinge
Sweden
Male unemployment rates
Kalmar
Kronobergs
Blekinge
Sweden
Kalmar
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2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2003
2004
2002
2001
2000
1999
1997
1998
1996
0.11
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
1995
0.11
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
Jönköpings
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…and wages
Average wages for women as share of men's average wage, by county
1995
2000
2005
2009
Jönköping
68.6
69.3
71.1
75.1
Kronoberg
67.8
68.4
71.4
74.9
Kalmar
71.8
73.0
74.7
76.9
Blekinge
70.3
71.1
73.8
78.1
Skåne
71.2
70.8
72.9
75.3
Västra Götaland
71.5
71.5
73.4
76.4
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0%
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Västerbotten
Norrbotten
Stockholm
Örebro
Jämtland
Dalarna
Skåne
Uppsala
Kronoberg
Blekinge
Mixed managerial 2009
Västmanland
Gävleborg
Värmland
Västra Götaland
Jönköping
Västernorrland
Halland
Only women 2009
Kalmar
Östergötland
Södermanland
Gotland
Firm start-ups by managerial gender
Growth rate Women+mixed managerial 2000-2009 (RHS)
50%
12%
40%
10%
8%
30%
6%
20%
4%
10%
2%
0%
22
Part 2
THE CHALLENGE OF THE
FUTURE
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Transition ahead
• The recent crisis has forced the pace of
structural change in OECD economies.
• The implications of this shift are
particularly great for the counties of
Småland and Blekinge.
• It is becoming increasingly difficult to
sustain competitive medium-to-low tech
manufacturing in the developed countries.
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A set of inter-linked challenges
• Human capital: formation, retention and attraction
• Innovation: making the most of the region’s
knowledge-creation potential
• Promoting new forms of entrepreneurship
• Improving connectivity within the region and
beyond: can Småland-Blekinge pursue
agglomeration without density?
• Creating forms of governance that enable to the
counties to address the above in an integrated
fashion
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Educational attainments are relatively low by
comparison with national averages
Attainment rates in post-secondary
(3 years or more and post-graduate)
Attainment rates in primary
and lower secondary
24%
Sweden average
22%
20%
18%
Sweden
average
16%
14%
12%
10%
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…But still rather high by OECD standards
Share of population 25-64 years with primary and secondary
education as highest level of education 2009
35%
29%
30%
25%
20%
15%
19%
18% 18% 17% 17%
16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16%
16% 16% 15% 15%
15%
15%
13% 13% 13%
12%
11%
10%
5%
0%
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Retention of educated youth is difficult
Percent of post-secondary graduates from a county residing in the same county,
2007
100
90
80
70
60
average of Swedish regions
50
40
30
20
10
0
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10 November 2011
0.0%
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Gotland
Halland
Kalmar
Jämtland
Jönköping
Örebro
Östergötland
Dalarna
Västernorrland
Västmanland
Södermanland
Gävleborg
Värmland
Västra Götaland
Västerbotten
Norrbotten
Blekinge
Uppsala
Kronoberg
Skåne
Stockholm
International migrants as % of population, 2010
1.6%
1.4%
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
29
Connecting the region
Average journey length
Journeys/ kilometer
available
Number of cars/inhabitants
kilometer available/
inhabitant
Jönköping
Journeys/ inhabitant
Kronoberg
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Kalmar
Blekinge
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Sweden
30
Road connections to external markets could
be improved
Potential road accessibility (100=EU average)
40
35
30
25
20
15
average of Swedish regions
10
5
0
Note: The indicator measures accessibility to potential markets in travel time by road using an inverse
weighted GDP matrix to all EU regions. The weighting rule applies the inverse distance for travel time.
Potential rail access thus measures all the people that can be reached from a given region to all other
regions in the EU.
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Rail connectivity is better but not terrific
Potential rail accessibility (100=EU average)
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
average of Swedish regions
15
10
5
0
Note: The indicator measures accessibility to potential markets in travel time by rail using an inverse
weighted GDP matrix to all EU regions. The weighting rule applies the inverse distance for travel time.
Potential rail access thus measures all the people that can be reached from a given region to all other
regions in the EU.
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Improved connectivity within the region could
also help labour-market performance
Sweden LMA's
LMA's in Smaland Blekinge
Unemployment rate (Q3 2009)
13
y = -0.2576x + 7.745
11
9
7
5
3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
ln of population density (inhabitants per square kilometer) 2009
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Activity rates have tended to be high
Employment and unemployment rates for Swedish counties, 2007
9.0
8.5
Sweden average -- ER
Unemployment rate, 2007
8.0
Norrbottens
7.5
Blekinge
Östergötlands
7.0
Västmanlands
6.5
Gävleborgs
6.0
5.5
Örebro
Skåne
Västernorrlands
Gotlands
Uppsala
Värmlands
Jämtlands
Västra Götalands
Dalarnas
Västerbottens
Kalmar
Sweden average -- UR
Stockholms
Jönköpings
Södermanlands
5.0
Hallands
4.5
Kronobergs
4.0
3.5
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
Employment rate, 2007
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Youth unemployment and population
density
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Connectivity should also favour
entrepreneurship
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Enterprise creation
% share of new start-ups, 2009 (LHS)
annual average growth of new start-ups, 2000-2009 (RHS)
1.0%
3.5%
0.9%
3.0%
0.8%
2.5%
0.7%
0.6%
2.0%
0.5%
1.5%
0.4%
0.3%
1.0%
0.2%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
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Gotland
Blekinge
Jämtland
Kronoberg
Västerbotten
Kalmar
Västernorrland
Norrbotten
Västmanland
Värmland
Örebro
Gävleborg
Dalarna
Södermanland
Jönköping
Halland
Östergötland
Uppsala
Skåne
Västra Götaland
Stockholm
0.0%
37