Transcript Water and climate change adaptation: A survey of policies

OECD WATER OUTLOOK TO 2050:
MANAGING WATER RISKS & SEIZING GREEN GROWTH
OPPORTUNITIES
CNI Sustainability: Water Opportunities and Challenges for Development in Brazil
Rio de Janeiro, 24 October 2013
Kathleen Dominique, Environmental Economist
Water demand to increase by 55% by 2050
Global water demand, baseline 2000 and 2050
Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050; output from IMAGE
2
Human and economic costs of a changing
climate: uncertain future for freshwater
Change in annual temperature from 1990-2050
Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050; output from IMAGE
3
Number of people living in water-stressed river
basins
no water stress
low water stress
medium water stress
severe water stress
10 000
Millions of people
9 000
8 000
7 000
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
2000
2050
OECD
2000
2050
BRIICS
2000
2050
RoW
Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050; output from IMAGE
2000
2050
World
Water pollution from urban sewage
to increase 3-fold
Nitrogen effluents from wastewater: baseline 1970 to 2050
Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050; output from IMAGE
5
Population lacking access to an improved
water source or basic sanitation 1990-2050
BRIICS
RoW
OECD
BRIICS
ROW
2 000
1 100
millions of people
millions of people
OECD
1 000
900
800
700
1 800
1 600
1 400
1 200
600
1 000
500
800
400
600
300
200
400
100
200
0
0
1990
2010
Urban
2030
2050
1990
2010
2030
2050
1990
Rural
Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050; output from IMAGE
2010
Urban
2030
2050
1990
2010
2030
Rural
2050
Ranking of coastal cities at risk from future
flood losses, 2005
City
Average Annual
Losses (US$ mill)
Average Annual
Losses (% of GDP)
1
Guangzhou
687
1.32%
2
Miami
672
0.30%
3
New York – Newark
628
0.08%
4
New Orleans
507
1.21%
5
Mumbai
284
0.47%
6
Nagoya
260
0.26%
7
Tampa – St Petersburg
244
0.26%
8
Boston
237
0.13%
9
Shenzen
169
0.38%
10
Osaka - Kobe
120
0.03%
Costs of global flood damage could rise from USD 6 billion to USD 1 trillion
p.a. by 2050.
Source: Stephane Hallegatte, Colin Green, Robert J. Nicholls and Jan Corfee-Morlot: “Future flood
losses in major coastal cities” in nature climate change, 18 August 2013.
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Water security risks
Costs of water insecurity
Drought in Brazil 2012 caused significant drop in production of food
and raw materials and strained energy production. Government
emergency credit fund of R$2.4 billion.
2011 floods in Thailand slashed 4th quarter GDP growth by 12%.
“Know”, “target” and “manage” risks
The future is uncertain. The risk approach encourages thinking
systematically about uncertainty.
The level of assessment and governance should be proportional to
the risk faced.
What is acceptable?
Balance between economic, social and environmental consequences
and the cost of improvement.
For business community, help to secure social license to operate.
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Policy action: managing water risks and seizing
green growth opportunities
• Improve incentives for managing risk
– Robust water resource allocation (efficient, flexible, equitable risk sharing)
– Remove environmentally-harmful subsidies (e.g. under pricing water, productionlinked agricultural subsidies)
– Water pricing, abstraction charges, pollution charges, insurance schemes
• Encourage green innovation
– Change the economics: make pollution and wasteful production & consumption
more expensive
– Reduce barriers to uptake and diffusion of innovative water technologies and
techniques
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Decoupling water use from growth
OECD freshwater abstraction by major use and GDP (1990=100)
GDP
Population
160
Irrigation
Public supply
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
Source: OECD Environmental Data
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
80
1990
0-
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Water pricing - reducing demand
% Ownership against fee structure
Source: OECD (2011), Greening Household Behaviour: The Role of Public Policy
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Policy action: managing water risks and seizing
green growth opportunities
• Improve information and data
– Better “knowing” the risks, including perceptions
• Invest in infrastructure (“grey” and “green”)
–
Financing needs considerable:
•
0.35-1.2% of GDP over next 20 years in OECD countries
•
Developing countries: USD 54 billion to maintain systems, another USD 17 billion to meet MDGs (per year,
estimates vary widely)
–
Sources: 3 T’s (tariffs, taxes, transfers)
–
Principles: beneficiary pays, polluter pays, equity and coherence
–
Combine “grey” and “green” to improve scalability and flexibility to adjust to change
• Making water reform happen
– National Policy Dialogues
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Muito Obrigada
www.oecd.org/water
Contact: [email protected]