Transcript Document

BEA’s Regional Economic
Accounts:
Past Improvements and
What Lies Ahead for the Regional
Program
Robert L. Brown
Calibrating the Nevada Economy: Data and Tools for Assessing
Our State and Local Economies
Reno, Nevada
February 2, 2007
BEA’s Regional Accounts Initiatives
 Accelerated
estimates
 New
statistics
 Other
improvements
 Future
improvements
www.bea.gov
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Accelerations
Acceleration
Data release
From
To
Timing
Quarterly state personal income
4 months
3 months
Completed 2004
Total GDP by state
18 months 6 months
18 months 10 months
16 months 12 months
16 months 9 months
Completed 2005
Completed 2005
Completed 2005
Completed 2006
GDP-by-state industry detail
County industry detail
Metro-area personal income
www.bea.gov
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New Statistics: Local Area Compensation
 County estimates of compensation by
industry, 1998 forward
 Sum of Wages and salaries and
supplements to wages
 Labor costs of production
 First released in 2005
 December release provides early indicator
of economic activity for counties
www.bea.gov
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New Statistics: More Local Area Data
 Metro area disposable personal income
 Researching the estimation of personal
current taxes for metro areas
 Subtracted from personal income to derive DPI
 Some results from the prototype
estimates…
 Bridgeport, CT per capita personal current
taxes 16,150—26.1% of personal income
 McAllen, TX per capita personal current taxes
1,082—7.4 % of personal income
www.bea.gov
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New Statistics: More Data on Tables
 New tables—CA04 summary and CA06
Compensation
 More Geography
 New Metropolitan area definitions—including
micropolitan areas
 More detail on tables
 Since 1996 the amount of detail on tables has
doubled
 1996—0.9 million lines per year
 2006—2.0 million lines per year
www.bea.gov
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New Statistics: Longer Time Series
 Annual state earnings industry data
now back to 1990 on a NAICS basis
 Previously only 2001 forward
 GDP by state now available for 1963
forward on SIC basis
 Previously 1977 forward
www.bea.gov
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New Statistics: Interarea Prices
 Indexes that permit place to place comparisons
correcting for price level differences
 Jointly with the BLS, using CPI microdata
 Intermediate goal: produce indexes for 38 urban
areas
 Covers 87 percent of US population
 CPI covers urban areas, so state indexes require
additional data
 BEA Advisory Committee presentation and Working
Paper in 2005
 Article in September 2006 Monthly Labor Review
www.bea.gov
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Other Improvements: Improved Preliminary
State Wage Methodology
Scaling factors for CES jobs for estimating wages
California
Nevada
Oregon
Utah
www.bea.gov
0.53
0.71
0.68
0.82
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Other Improvements: Outreach
 Outreach to users of the statistics
 6 Regional data users conferences around
the country in the past 15 months
 7 RIMS training workshops for regional
data users in the past 15 months
www.bea.gov
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Regional Working Papers and
Presentations in One Location
 Go To: BEA
Home
 Regional
 Articles Tool
Bar
 Regional
Working
Papers and
Presentations
www.bea.gov
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Future Improvements: More
Accelerations of Releases
 Personal income for metropolitan areas
 8 months after end of calendar year
 GDP by state and sector
 6 months after end of calendar year
www.bea.gov
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Future Improvements: More Local Area
Data
 Gross metro product (GMP)
 Initial estimates—top-down approach:
 Allocate state GDP by local area earnings data
 Research into bottom-up approach for
non-labor part of GMP
 Taxes and gross operating surplus
 Research using sub-state Census Bureau data
www.bea.gov
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Future Improvements: Alternative Estimates of
Regional Income
 Develop alternative household income
measures that better meet user needs
to:
 Measure spending capacity
 Track tax base
 Research to be released this Spring
www.bea.gov
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US Pension Accounting, 2000
Personal income
8,429.7
- Net reclassifications
3.0
- Pension contributions
697.7
- Pension Fund Property Income 367.7
+ Pension benefits
652.2
Adjusted personal income
8,013.6
www.bea.gov
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Future Improvements: Personal Income
Mapping
 Interactive Web-based state and
county personal income mapping
 Prototype this year
www.bea.gov
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Future Improvements: GDP by State
 Carry GDP by state back to 1992 on a
NAICS industry basis
 NAICS currently from 1997
 Requires back-casting Census Bureau data
at Center for Economic Studies
 Develop alternative state GDP
methodology to estimate gross output
and intermediate expenses
www.bea.gov
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Future Improvement: Regional Multipliers
 Produce value-added multipliers
 In addition to gross output multipliers
currently produced
 Improve methods to “regionalize” the
national input-output accounts
 Research into capturing interregional
flows of goods and people
www.bea.gov
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Other Future Research: New Data
Sources
 The American Community Survey (ACS)
and the Local Employment Dynamics
(LED) datasets as substitutes for the
decennial Census long-form
 IRS information returns data by state
 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey
(MEPS) data for contributions to health
insurance
www.bea.gov
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And Finally: Comprehensive Revision
 Spring 2009—every 5 years
 Definitional revisions
 Statistical and methodological revisions
 Presentational revisions
www.bea.gov
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Questions?
 Contact:
 Robert L, Brown
 202.606.9246
 [email protected]
www.bea.gov
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