Transcript Slide 1
RIMS II Regional Input-Output Modeling System Zoë O. Ambargis BEA/PNREAP/University of Nevada Regional Economic Workshop Reno, NV September 29, 2009 www.bea.gov What is RIMS II? ▪ Input-output model developed by the BEA in the mid 1970’s ▪ Incorporates linkages among industries in a regional economy ▪ Best suited for analyzing the impacts of small changes in a regional economy www.bea.gov 2 RIMS II Has Been Used to Analyze a Variety of Projects ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ Opening and closing military bases Changes in tourism New energy facilities Construction of sports facilities New retail establishments New airports or port facilities Opening and closing manufacturing plants Contribution of universities and hospitals www.bea.gov 3 Framing Your Analysis ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ What is the project/issue being studied? What is the change? What is the magnitude of the change? What is the timing? Which industries are affected? What is the affected region? www.bea.gov 4 Ordering RIMS II Multipliers www.bea.gov 5 Type I and Type II Multipliers ▪ Type I multipliers Industry impacts only Total impact = direct + indirect ▪ Type II multipliers Industry impacts and household expenditure impacts Total impact = direct + indirect + induced More commonly used than Type I multipliers www.bea.gov 6 Annual and Benchmark Series ▪ Annual series 2006 national annual I-O data and 2006 regional data More current, less detailed 60 aggregate industries ▪ Benchmark series 1997 national benchmark I-O data and 2006 regional data More detailed, less current 473 detailed and 60 aggregate industries www.bea.gov 7 Application Example 1 www.bea.gov 8 RIMS II Multipliers www.bea.gov 9 Calculating Impacts Using Type II Final-Demand Multipliers www.bea.gov 10 Accessing Your Multipliers www.bea.gov 11 Multiplier Table 1.5 www.bea.gov 12 Comparison of Type I and Type II Impacts www.bea.gov 13 Application Example 2 www.bea.gov 14 Calculating Impacts Using Type II Direct-Effect Multipliers www.bea.gov 15 Multiplier Table 1.5 www.bea.gov 16 Common Mistakes ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ Defining the study area incorrectly Averaging multipliers Treating employment impacts as FTE impacts Not converting purchasers’ values to producers’ values Treating changes in intermediate use as final-demand changes ▪ Not considering the net impact ▪ Using multipliers for “Other government enterprises” to estimate impacts of government ▪ Treating output impacts as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) impacts www.bea.gov 17 2002 Benchmark Update ▪ RIMS II multipliers will be based on 2002 national benchmark I-O data 2007 regional data ▪ Dimensions of tables will change 406 detailed industries (compared to 473) 62 aggregate industries (compared to 60) 21 row industries (compared to 20) www.bea.gov 18 Thank You Zoë Ambargis Becca Bess Hope Franklin Thomas McComb Web site: www.bea.gov/regional/rims/ Phone: 202-606-5343 Fax: 202-606-5321 E-mail: [email protected] www.bea.gov 19