Transcript Document

CLIMATE CHANGE - AN
UNPRECENDENTED CHALLENGE
TO MANKIND AND ITS
IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL
SCIENCE-SOCIETY RELATIONS
Mike Harrison
Oxford University Centre for the Environment
King’s College, University of London
[email protected]
With acknowledgements to Lucka Kajfez Bogotaj and
Richard Washington
Some IPCC AR4 Highlights Working Group I - Science
• “Very high confidence” that [the] global …
effect of human activities [is] one of warming
• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
• Numerous long-term changes in climate have
been observed [but some aspects not]
• Continued … emissions … [will] induce
changes very likely larger than those during
the 20th Century
• Anthropogenic warming would continue for
centuries
Carbon
emissions
(Gt/yr)
CO2 concentration
(ppm)
Projections of future climate changes
The future depends
on human choices
about emissions.
600 ppmv CO2 equiv
(B1) Best estimate is
+1.8°C [likely 1.12.9°C] by 2100;
1550 ppmv (A1FI)
Best 4°C [likely 2.46.4°C]
CO2 equivalent: 600 ->1550
Changes across the century for 3
month averages of 10-20ºC and 50200 mm/month
Some IPCC AR4 Highlights Working Group II - Impacts
• Many natural systems are being affected by regional
climate changes, particularly temperature increases
• It is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a
discernible influence on many physical and biological
systems
• Future impacts are expected in: freshwater
resources; ecosystems; food, fibre and forest
products; coastal systems; industry, settlement and
society; health
• Some adaptation is occurring now
• Adaptation will be necessary
• Vulnerability … can be exacerbated by … other
stresses
Regions most affected
•
•
•
•
In EUROPE greatest impacts
The Arctic
on
Sub-Saharan Africa
– Arctic regions
Small islands
– Moisture-limited
Asian megadeltas
ecosystems
– Mediterranean
Vulnerable systems and sectors
• Some ecosystems:
– Coral reefs; sea-ice regions
– Tundra, boreal forests, mountain and
Mediterranean regions
• Low-lying coasts, mangroves & salt marshes
• Water resources in mid-latitudes & dry Tropics
• Low-latitude agriculture
• Human health where adaptive capacity is low
• 20% - 30% of plants and animals at high risk of
extinction if ∆T 1.5°C - 2.5°C
Europe
North ↔ South differences
N Europe
S Europe
Increased forest growth
Increased fire risk
(only in the beginning?)
Increased water
availability
Decreased water
availability
(2070 ca.1/5)
( 2070 ca.1/3)
Increased
yields
Decreased
yields
(only in the beginning? )
The costs of stabilising the climate are manageable
– delay would be dangerous and much more costly
1% GDP
Costs of mitigation to stabilise
emissions at 550ppm by 2050
vs
5% GDP
Income losses if we do
nothing: market impacts only
Damages from climate
change rise disproportionately
with temperature !!!
(A 25% increase in storm wind speeds is
associated with an almost 7-fold
increase in damages to buildings).
• Climate change could lead to floods,
20% GDP
Income loss including non-market
impacts, risk and equity
massive population shifts, and wars
over natural resources.
• Ecosystems are unlikely to be able to
adapt at the rapid rates of change
expected.
Stern Review (2006)
Some IPCC AR4 Highlights Working Group III - Mitigation
• With current … policies … global GHG
emissions will continue to grow over the next
few decades
• … studies indicate that there is substantial
economic potential for the mitigation of global
GHG emissions
• Changes in lifestyle and behaviour patterns
can contribute to … mitigation
AR4 Outcomes - Some
Recent Developments
• It has been agreed to produce an AR5 using
the same IPCC WG structure
• A growing recognition of the limited abilities of
current models to simulate regional climates
(including rainfall) and their changes
• New initiatives to develop higher-resolution
models and to improve ensemble approaches
Scientific Support to the IPCC
• From 4 International Programmes (ESSP - Earth Systems
Science Programmes) under ICSU (International Council for
Science)
IPCC
Working Group I Science
International Geosphere Biosphere Programme
IGBP
World Climate Research Programme
WCRP
Also WMO
START
Global Change System for
Analysis, Research and Training
Working Group I Impacts
International Human Dimensions Programme
IHDP
DIVERSITAS
Working Group I I Mitigation
International Policy Making
based on IPCC Advice
UNFCCC
United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change
SBSTA
Subsidiary Body for
Scientific and Technological
Advice
IPCC
SBI
Subsidiary Body for Implementation
Four Fundamentals of the
UNFCCC - 1: Definition
• “Climate change” means a change of climate
which is attributed directly or indirectly to
human activity that alters the composition of
the global atmosphere and which is in
addition to natural climate variability observed
over comparable time periods.
Four Fundamentals of the
UNFCCC - 2: Objective
• The ultimate objective of this Convention … is to
achieve … stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference
with the climate system.
• According to IPCC WGII AR4:
– With very high confidence, no temperature threshold
associated with any subjective judgment of what might
constitute “dangerous” climate change can be guaranteed to
be avoided by anything but the most stringent of mitigation
interventions.
Four Fundamentals of the
UNFCCC - 3: Mitigation
• Each of these [Annex I] Parties shall adopt
national policies and take corresponding
measures on the mitigation of climate
change, by limiting its anthropogenic
emissions of greenhouse gases and
protecting and enhancing its greenhouse gas
sinks and reservoirs.
 Kyoto Protocol (1997)
 Bali Action Plan (2007)
 Cap and Trade
Role of Global Environment
Facility (GEF) in Mitigation
• Set up within World Bank to manage funding
re the Rio Conventions (with UNFCCC are
the related conventions on Desertification and
Sustainable Development)
• One founding principle is that GEF does not
help fund ‘normal’ national activities, only
extensions to those activities in line with the
Conventions
• Within context of mitigation:
– CDM (Clean Development Mechanism)
– JI (Joint Implementation)
Four Fundamentals of the
UNFCCC - 4: Adaptation
• Cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the
impacts of climate change; develop and
elaborate appropriate and integrated plans for
coastal zone management, water resources
and agriculture, and for the protection and
rehabilitation of areas, particularly in Africa,
affected by drought and desertification, as
well as floods
 National Adaptation Plans of Action (NAPAs)
 Nairobi Work Programme (2005)
Role of GEF in Adaptation
• Strategic Priority for Adaptation
– Concrete adaptation projects; measures for reducing
vulnerability; increasing adaptive capacity; e.g.s Kiribati
Adaptation Programme, Lake Balaton integrated vulnerability
assessment, Community based adaptation programme
• Least Developed Countries Fund
– NAPAs; funding to adaptation programmes in Bangladesh,
Bhutan, Eritrea, Niger,Malawi, Mauritania, Samoa
• Special Climate Change Fund
– Four financing avenues for developing countries: adaptation;
technology transfer; energy,transport,
industry,agriculture,forestry and waste management;
economic diversification
• Coping with Drought and Climate Change (Ethiopia,
Mozambique, Zimbabwe)
• Other projects in Tanzania, Guyana, Kenya, Bolivia,
Peru, Venezuela, Ecuador, China
• [Also UNFCCC Adaptation Fund]
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Differences between
Mitigation and Adaptation
Mitigation
Adaptation
Universal benefit
Local benefit
Links to main economy
Links to main and local economies
Generally major commercial interest
All types of commercial and
national/local interests
Perception of need to act in short
time scale
Initial perception that action might
wait
Extensive research
More restricted research and
numerous contexts
Readily portable; ‘easy’ knowledge
management
Not necessarily readily portable;
complex knowledge management
What is Adaptation? - 1
 Shocks
 Globally about 70% of disasters/shocks come as hydrometeorological events in terms of deaths and damage; for
numbers affected it is in excess of 95% (IFRC/CRED)
 According to IPCC WGII AR4: … confidence has increased
that some weather events and extremes will become more
frequent, more widespread and/or more intense during the
21st Century
 In part we are building greater vulnerability while at the same
time not always increasing resilience
 Endogenous
 Future
 Current
What is Adaptation? - 2
 Shocks
 Endogenous
This is the manner of natural societal
adaptation over many millennia
Undoubtedly this will be an significant
approach during the future
 Future
 Current
What is Adaptation? - 3
 Shocks
 Endogenous
 Future
 To a major extent this is the prime area considered by the
IPCC, including:
 Future sea level rise
 Changes in ecological/agricultural zones
 New or modified threats to health/food production/water
supplies
 Changes and new stresses to social structures - migration and
conflict
 Current
What is Adaptation? - 4




Shocks
Endogenous
Future
Current
– Tanzania is one of the poorest countries in the world. Its
population of some 33 million is growing at about 2.8% per
year. Annual per capita income is approximately $250. The
economy, and most of its population, is heavily dependent
on agriculture, which accounts for some 50% of GDP and
provides 85% of exports. As such, Tanzania’s economy is
vulnerable to climatic conditions, notably floods and drought,
with some regions being particularly drought-prone.
UNFCCC Nairobi Work
Programme
• Objectives:
– To assist all Parties, in particular developing
countries, including the least developed countries
and small island developing States, to improve
their understanding and assessment of impacts,
vulnerability and adaptation; and
– To assist all Parties to make informed decisions on
practical adaptation actions and measures to
respond to climate change on a sound scientific,
technical and socio-economic basis, taking into
account current and future climate change and
variability.
UNFCCC Nairobi Work
Programme
• Nine action areas:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Methods and tools
Data and observations
Climate modelling, scenarios and downscaling
Climate related risks and extreme events
Socio-economic information
Adaptation planning and practices
Research
Technologies for adaptation
Economic diversification
Nairobi Work Programme
• Organisations involved:
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UN Adaptation Activities
• Numerous across many organisations but often not coordinated
• Assessments of Impacts and
Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC)
 START
• Climate for Development in Africa
(ClimDevAfrica)  G8/AfDB/AUC
Current Adaptation
• Not much long-term planning in very poor
African countries: LDCs
• Lack of expertise (brain drain) for planning
• Lack of finance to implement plans
• Current contribution of climate services to
development in most LDCs is not easily
distinguishable from zero ….. compared with
what is needed.
Current Adaptation
• A fourth reason why some Goals are not being met is simply
that policymakers are unaware of the challenges, unaware of
what to do, or neglectful of core public issues. Environmental
policy is often grossly neglected because of politically weak
environment ministries, even weaker law enforcement, and
considerable deficiencies in information and in the capacity to
act on that information. Few governments currently have the
capacity to assess the deep links between ecosystem services
(hydrology, biodiversity, natural hazard reduction) and poverty
reduction. The environment is much too often taken as given, or
regarded as a resource to be exploited.
Current Adaptation
• Multiple sectors involved, limited research
base
• Necessary data are often either missing, of
doubtful quality, or difficult to access
• Has tended to be a focus on climate
predictions, especially seasonal forecasts
• Often seen/managed as a one-off activity
independent of other major issues, such as
the Millennium Development Goals, other Rio
Conventions, etc.
Decision Making and Policy
• In all instances adaptation requires some
form of decision process, yet these decision
processes are often poorly defined  Espoo
Conference
• Further adaptation needs appropriate policy
frameworks in which to function effectively 
INCLUDE
• Ideally adaptation should be planned within
the contexts of other related challenges 
Millennium Development Goals, other Rio
and environmental Conventions, etc.
Summarising Issues
• Key outcomes for adaptation activities:
– Focus
– Legacy
– Integration with other activities
– Appropriate adjustment to or creation of
policies
– Ideally, portability