Transcript Dia 1 - Teagasc

The EU dimension beyond 2013
Eururalis 2.0
Insight in the future
Trends, challenges and options for
EU rural areas
Willem Rienks – Alterra Wageningen UR
Dublin, July 2007
Wageningen UR
MNP- LEI – Alterra - SIL
Objectives of Eururalis
• Investigate possible developments of
European rural areas
• European focus, including global context
• Spatially explicit, years 2010 – 2020 – 2030
• Presented by an interactive CD
• … in order to stimulate the strategic discussion
on the future of Europe’s rural areas
Eururalis – discussion support
• Four narratives: world views play out differently
• Policy options lead to scenario-dependent
consequences (CAP, biofuels)
• Wide range of indicators (people-planet-profit)
• Multi-scale approach: global context via countries
& regions
Competitiveness
Market regulation
No CAP
Security
Legal liability
CAP: no change
Implemented policy options
• CAP 1 –market support
100% - 50% - 0% of current budget
• CAP 2 –income support
150% - 100% - 50% - 0%
• Ambition on biofuels
Low/0 – medium/5.75 – high/11.5%
Assumptions storylines
Population
Global
economy
Global
cooperation
Transatlantic
Markets
Regional
Communities
Solidarity
Economy
Technology
Globalization
Government
regulation
Today:
focus on land-use
• Role of farming in GDP
declines
• Role for land-use remains
strong
• >40% of land remains
agriculture in all
scenarios
• High impact on carbon,
erosion, biodiversity,
nutrients, landscape
Agricultural abandonment
•
•
•
•
Main land use change next 30 years
Stable food consumption <-> technology improvement
Large regional differences
Policy impact is strong (CAP, biofuels)
Agri area %
2000 A1 - 2030 A2 - 2030 B1 - 2030 B2 - 2030
Ireland
66.8
EU27
46
61.4
65
63.4
66.3
-8%
-3%
-5%
-1%
41.9
45.2
40.2
41.1
-9%
-2%
-13%
-11%
Regional differences: abandonment
& intensification
1. Urban pressure
2. Marginalization
For a lot of regions, policy matters
% abandoned agricultural land 2030
Continental Markets
Current CAP and LFA
Global Economy
No CAP and LFA
Policy matters: Biofuel cropland
2030 (GE)
Low ambition
High ambition
Global Economy
Global Economy
high biofuels ambition
(11%)
Bio-energy
Allocation
•Logistic
•Technology
•Scale
•Main arable regions
•Ireland – 2%
•EU27 – 6%
Not to forget:
pressure on land in Latin-America
Crop area in Europe and Brazil
(Global Economy scenario)
1600000
1400000
Brazil (BF 11.5%)
Brazil (BF 5.75%)
Food crop area (*1000 km2)
1200000
Brazil (no BF)
EU-15 (BF 11.5%)
1000000
EU-15 (BF 5.75%)
EU-15 (no BF)
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Impact of CAP – income support
regional communities scenario
Agricultural area in 2030
Impact of income support
2000 = 100
100
95
decrease
stable
90
85
80
increase
EU27
Ireland
support
Impact of CAP – market support
regional communities scenario
Agricultural area in 2030
Im pact of m arket support
2000 = 100
100
95
decrease
90
85
stable
80
EU27
Ireland
support
Urbanisation area
• Population growth
• Migration (from rural to urban and from abroad to urban)
• More m2 per person
Urban area %
Ireland
EU27
2000 A1 - 2030 A2 - 2030 B1 - 2030 B2 - 2030
1.4
3.7
2.9
2.0
1.9
1.7
+107%
43%
36%
21%
4.8
4.0
4.0
4.0
30%
8%
8%
8%
• What about land prices?
Conclusions towards 2030
• Abandonment is main landuse change in
EU27 ánd Ireland
• EU strategic policy does matter
• Urban pressure high: land prices?
• What to do with abandonned land? How to
steer?
• Adaptation to climate change,
extensification, biodiversity, landscape, …
Thank you for your attention
Contributions of LEI, Alterra, SIL-Wageningen UR and MNP
[email protected]
www.eururalis.eu