Transcript Megatrends“Certainties” About the Future

Global Trends 2030
Alternative Worlds
Mike Jeffress
Strategic Futures Group
National Intelligence Council
8 November 2013
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you
into trouble – it’s what you know for sure
that just ain’t so.”
Mark Twain
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Brief Outline
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WHY do we do it?
Foresight and Governance
A Changing Strategic Environment
The Global Trends Project
Overview of Global Trends 2030
– Megatrends (certainties)
– Game-Changers (uncertainties)
• Alternative Global / US Futures
– State Relationships / Capacity
– US Strategic Orientation / Economic Performance
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Imagining the Future
Could We Have
C Predicted…?
Prediction: An assessment that a specific event is
likely to occur.
Uncertainty
Foresight: An examination of multiple plausible
future outcomes, and the implications of each.
1912
1942
1972
1992
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Living in the World of the Plausible
• Mainstream intelligence analysis is based on evidence
• No “facts” about the future
• Certainty about the future decreases with time
• Futures analysis is much more speculative – moves beyond
existing evidence and probabilities
• Foreseeing plausible outcomes, pathways and implications vs.
predicting a specific result
• Alternative futures cope with an unpredictable future by
characterizing the breadth and depth of its possibilities
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Foresight and Governance
Foresight is the disciplined analysis of alternative futures. It is not prediction, it is
not vision, and it is not intelligence; it is a distinct process of monitoring
prospective oncoming events, analyzing potential implications, simulating
alternative courses of action, asking unasked questions, and issuing timely
warning to avert a risk or seize an opportunity. As a disciplined process,
organized foresight offers a means to simulate actions that would otherwise have
to be tested against reality, where the consequences of error are irrevocable. A
foresight-generating and horizon-scanning system can help government detect
trends and weak signals, visualize alternative futures, and foster better outcomes.
Leon Fuerth
Project on Forward Engagement
2012
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A Changing Strategic Environment
A world we thought we understood…reshaped by fundamental trends
Emerging
Economies
Superpower dominated
Functional internationalEmerging
institutions
Clear “rules of the road”
Economies
Incremental adoption of new technologies
Trade – resources and finished products
US perceived as a stabilizer
Governance
Challenges
Governance
Challenges
Connectivity
and
Empowerment
Globalization
Disruptive
Technologies
Globalization
Now
Then
Connectivity
and
Empowerment
Disruptive
Changing power
relationships
Technologies
Lower growth rate in West
Governance deficit
“Rules of the road” ignored
Trade - components
Increasing systemic fragility
US increasingly perceived
as a variable
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The Global Trends Project
• Unclassified – broad distribution
• Global participation
• Worldwide audience
• Published quadrennially to inform
the incoming Administration
• Five-year leap, every four years;
extending our vision…
• GT 2030 now available online
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Global Trends
“This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the
rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world
today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 - 20 years.
As with the NIC’s previous Global Trends reports, we do not
seek to predict the future—which would be an impossible feat—
but instead provide a framework for thinking about possible
futures and their implications.”
Executive Summary, Global Trends 2030
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Megatrends
“Certainties” About the Future
Shenzhen – mid 1970s
Demography
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GDP
Population Size
Military Spending
Technology
Diffusion of
Power
Resource
Nexus
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Military Power
Nuclear Power
GDP
Energy
Shenzhen – Today
• Trade
• Investment
Empowered
• Foreign Aid
Individuals
• Working-Age
Population
• Human Development
Index (HDI)
• Governance
• Innovation
• Connectivity
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Game-Changers
“Uncertainties” About the Future
Global Economy
Breakdown and collapse…
…or increased resilience?
Governance
Adapt to change…
…or be overwhelmed by it?
Potential for Conflict
Recent patterns continue…
…or conflict more likely?
Regional Instability
Will instability remain regionally focused…
…or spill over and create global insecurity?
Technology
Will technology solve problems…
…or create new ones?
Role of the U.S.
Continued engagement…
…or focus on internal issues ?
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Alternative Worlds
Scenarios for the Future
• US economy
struggles
• Slow global growth
• Increased regional
tensions
• Innovation stagnant
Stalled
Engines
• US-Chinese
cooperation
• “Golden Age” of
tech innovation
• Global consensus
for action on energy
Fusion
• Highly unequal – top
& bottom increase
• Selective US
engagement
• Wealthy, but high
potential for conflict
Gini Out-of-theBottle
• Nonstate actors take
the lead
• Authoritarian
regimes struggle
• Hybrid coalitions of
state and nonstate
Nonstate World
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Game-Changers
“Uncertainties” About the Future
Global
Economy
State Capacity
Governance
State Relationships
Potential
for Conflict
Regional Instability
Technology
Role of the U.S.
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Alternative Global Futures
High
Capitalist
Condominium
Fail Safe
Cold War Redux
Cooperation
State Relationships
Humpty World
Disaggregation
Company
Store
State Capacity
Competition
Grand Alliance
Corporate
Hegemony
Low
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Game-Changers
“Uncertainties”
About
“Uncertainties”
andthe
theFuture
US
Global
US Economy
Governance
Potential for Conflict
Regional Instability
Technology
Role
of the U.S.
US Strategic
Orientation
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Alternative US Futures
Strong
Phoenix
Domestic
Rebalance
Enduring
Leadership
Engagement
US Strategic Orientation
Fatigue
Strategic
Withdrawal
Faded Glory
US Economy
Retrenchment
Renewal
Overstretch
Weak
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Phoenix
Enduring Leadership
Characteristics:
• US economy recovers
• Strong export sector improves balance of
payments
• Traditional role in global capitalism restored
• High expectations – at home and abroad
Implications:
• Confrontation or cooperation with rising
powers
• Fiscal choices – guns and butter
• Burden-sharing discussion persists with
allies
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Renewal
Domestic Rebalance
Characteristics:
• Rebalancing of commitments and domestic
priorities
• Increased focus on the US “near abroad”
• Quality of life is public preference
• Reduced resources for military
Implications:
• Improved relationships in Western
Hemisphere
• Alliance obligations renegotiated
• High level of public support for policy
• Opportunities for potential adversaries
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Faded Glory
Overstretch
Characteristics:
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Attempt to punch “above our weight”
Clear need to avoid quagmires
Underfunded domestic priorities
Legacy commitments to allies
Implications:
• Requirements exceed capacity
• Diminished capacity to control key
situations
• Declining confidence in US reliability
• Increased domestic pressure
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Fatigue
Strategic Withdrawal
Characteristics:
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Diminished resources across the board
Severe economic fragility drives decisionmaking
Political will for foreign engagement evaporates
Capacity for force projection atrophies, limiting
policy choices
Implications:
• Declining public confidence in governance
• Alliance commitments abrogated
• Increased opportunities for adversaries to
exploit competitive advantage
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NIC Strategic Futures Group
Foresight and Futures in the Intelligence Community
• Senior intelligence officers, with broad and deep experience
• Uses futures and foresight methodologies to support policy planning
and strategy development
• Focuses on specific topics of interest
• Resources and climate change
• Global governance and democratization
• Global Health
• Atrocities and Mass Killings
• Impact of Technology
• Future of Warfare
• Provides horizon scanning to detect and develop emerging issues
• Coordinates NIC warning program
• Conducts strategic analytic games
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Wisdom About the Future
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
Yogi Berra
“Change is the process by which the future invades our lives.”
Alvin Toffler
“The future is not an inheritance, it is an opportunity and an
obligation.”
Bill Clinton
“The problem with the future is that it keeps turning into the
present.”
Calvin and Hobbes
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Mike Jeffress
http://www.dni.gov/nic
Director, Global & Emerging Issues
Strategic Futures Group
National Intelligence Council
Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/odni.nic
(703) 482-0995
[email protected]
GT 2030 blog:
http://gt2030.com
Twitter: @ODNI_NIC
#gt2030
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Backup
Alternative Global Futures
High
Capitalist
Condominium
Fail Safe
Cold War Redux
Cooperation
State Relationships
Humpty World
Disaggregation
Company
Store
State Capacity
Competition
Grand Alliance
Corporate
Hegemony
Low
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Capitalist Condominium
Grand Alliance
Characteristics:
• High level of state capacity, common interests
promote cooperation
• Problems more susceptible to mediation
• Spheres of influence with bilateral relationships
• Negotiated global regulation regime – political
and economic reforms advance
Implications:
GT 2030
“Fusion”
• Focus on economic growth
• National resources available for
development
• Agenda for common problems set by
major powers
• Potential for exploitation backlash
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Fail Safe
Cold War Redux
Characteristics:
• Inequalities between and within countries dominate
• High level of state capacity, but little willingness to
cooperate
• High potential for confrontation
• Premium on alliance relationships
• Relatively ineffective regulation of global activity
Implications:
GT 2030
“Gini-out-of-theBottle”
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Concentration on military relations
High defense expenditures required
Little progress on common problems
Drag on global trade
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Company Store
Corporate Hegemony
Characteristics:
• States demonstrably unable to focus on problem
solving – declining legitimacy
• Multinational corporations control policy agendas
• Multilateral governance atrophies
• Global regulatory regime controls competition
Implications:
GT 2030
“Nonstate World”
• Diminished political participation
worldwide
• Increased likelihood of popular backlash
• International development stalls
• Labor mobility constrained
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Humpty World
Disaggregation
Characteristics:
• Low level of state capacity, combined with
competitive nationalism
• US & Europe uninterested and incapable of
global leadership
• High potential for regional confrontation
• Regulation of global activity impossible
Implications:
GT 2030
“Stalled Engines”
• Global dystopia
• No willingness or capacity to address
common problems
• Multilateral institutions ineffective
• Human development in decline
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