Transcript Transformation and Renewal

Unlocking Upstate’s
interlocking challenges:
Economy, population, sprawl
Rolf Pendall
Department of City & Regional Planning
Cornell University, Ithaca, NY
Presentation to Onondaga Community Leadership Conference
Syracuse, May 17, 2006
Six Upstate regions, with counties and cities
North Country
Upstate regions
Cities
Counties
Central
Rochester/
Finger Lakes
Hudson
Western
Southern Tier
²
0
25
50
75
100
Miles
NY State employment growth lags
US growth, 1970-2004
180
Total wage & salary employment,
full + part time (1970=100)
170
160
U.S. Average
Upstate
Central
Downstate
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Private sector job growth anemic
especially west of the Hudson Valley
Private sector employment, August, 1990-2005
1990=100.0
130.0
Hudson
125.0
Lower Hudson
120.0
North Country
Downstate
115.0
110.0
105.0
100.0
95.0
90.0
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
Private sector employment as % of August 1990
135.0
Central
Rochester
Southern Tier
Western
135.0
Local government employment, August, 1990-2005
1990=100.0
130.0
125.0
120.0
115.0
110.0
105.0
100.0
95.0
90.0
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
Local government employment as % of August 1990
Local government bolsters
Upstate job growth
Lower Hudson
Rochester
North Country
Hudson
Southern Tier
Central
State
Western
Downstate
Upstate’s per capita income gap with
U.S. widened in the 1990s
Per capita personal income (real 2004 dollars)
$45,000
$40,000
$35,000
$30,000
$25,000
Downstate
U.S. Average
Upstate
Central
$20,000
$15,000
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Stagnant average wages the main
contributor to slow income growth
$60,000
Average wage per job (real 2004 dollars)
$55,000
$50,000
$45,000
$40,000
$35,000
$30,000
Downstate
U.S. Average
Upstate
Central
$25,000
$20,000
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Upstate economy in transition, but
Upstate's economy increasingly resembles that of the U.S. as a whole but still
manufacturing
still important
depends upon manufacturing
wages
70
Percent of civilian earnings from major traded goods and
services, Upstate New York and US, 1980-2000
60
Percent of earnings
50
40
30
20
10
0
US, 1980
Upstate, 1980
US, 1990
Upstate, 1990
Manufacturing
Primary
Upstate, 2000
Information
Goods producing/distribution
Distribution
US, 2000
Adv. consumer svcs.
Finance/Real Estate
Producer services
Hudson, North Country rely on government & the information sector;
Rochester, Southern Tier still depend heavily upon manufacturing
90
Percent of earnings from major traded goods and services
and government, Upstate New York regions, 2000
80
Percent of earnings
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Upstate
Hudson
North Country
Central
Goods producing/distribution
Distribution
Manufacturing
Primary
Adv. consumer svcs.
Western
Information
Finance/Real Est.
Rochester/
Finger Lakes
Southern Tier
Government
Producer svcs.
Civilian gov't
Military
Upstate's health care sector is strong
Health sector
comparatively strong
compared to the rest of its economy
Percent change in employment, Health care
and total employment, Upstate and US, 1980-2000
60
Upstate total
52.2
Percent change in employmentMM
50
Upstate health care
47.7
U.S. health care
40
28.4
30
20
18.5
17.5
10
5.8
0
1980s
1990s
now features
UpstateUpstate
leads
USAa higher
in concentration
collegeof grads
college graduates than the USA as a whole
Percent of persons over age 25 with college
degrees, 1980-2000, Upstate & USA
35
32.8
30.7
USA
30
28.4
Upstate
Percent with college degrees
26.5
25
20
16.2
15.8
15
10
5
0
1980
1990
2000
“Best-educated counties” cluster in
the Hudson Valley
Adults with college education, 2000,
compared to U.S. average, and trend
vs. U.S. average in the 1990s
Above avg., gaining
Above avg., losing
Below avg., gaining
Watertown
Below avg., losing
Oswego
Niagara
Falls
Glens Falls
Rome
Utica
Oneida
Rochester
Batavia
Buffalo
Saratoga Springs
Syracuse
Geneva
Albany
Rensselaer
Cortland
Norwich
Ithaca
Hornell
Olean
Jamestown
Salamanca
Corning
Elmira
Binghamton
Kingston
²
0
Poughkeepsie
Middletown
25
50
75
100
Miles
Population growth slows below
Downstate, U.S. average
Percent Change, Total Population, Upstate New York,
Downstate New York, & USA, 1980-2000
24.2
Percent population change
25
Upstate
Downstate
USA
20
15
13.2
10.9
9.8
10
8.2
5
2.4
3.5
2.5
1.1
0
1980-1990
1990-2000
1980-2000
Part of a 15-million-person,
eight-state stagnant region
Pct. population
change, 1990s
-42 - -25
14 - 24
-24 - -4
25 - 41
-3 - 5
42 - 70
6 - 13
71 - 191
Young adults decline in Upstate 1980-2000
400,000
1980
1990
2000
350,000
Population aged 18-29
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Central
Hudson
North Country
Roch/FL
Southern Tier
Western
Seniors gain ground, 1980-2000
300,000
1980
1990
2000
Population over 65 years old
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Central
Hudson
North Country
Roch/FL
Southern Tier
Western
Upstate sprawls despite slow growth
Urban land, Upstate New York, 1982-1997
In thousands of acres
2,000
533
1,500
Urban acres (000)
467
404
428
Non-metro
1,000
Metro
1,325
500
1,029
1,079
1,161
1982
1987
1992
0
1997
Cities, Upstate New York
Plattsburgh
Ogdensburg
Watertown
Glens Falls
Oswego
Rome
Niagara
Falls
Lockport
Fulton
Rochester
North
Tonawanda
Buffalo
Oneida
Batavia
Canandaigua
Auburn
Syracuse
Utica
Little Falls
Geneva
Amsterdam
Mechanicville
Schenectady
Albany
Cortland
Dunkirk
Gloversville
Saratoga Springs
Troy
Rensselaer
Norwich
Oneonta
Hornell
Jamestown
Ithaca
Corning
Olean
Hudson
Elmira
Binghamton
Salamanca
Kingston
²
0 12.5 25
Poughkeepsie
Newburgh
50
75
100
Miles
Port Jervis
Middletown
Beacon
Towns grow, Cities decline
Household population, Cities, Villages, and Towns,
Upstate New York, 1980-2000
4,500
1980
1990
2000
4,000
3,500
Population (000)
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Cities
Villages
Towns
Housing growth and public lands, Finger Lakes Region, 1990s
Percent change in housing Public lands
-31% - -7%
15% - 23%
Park/conservation
-6% - 2%
24% - 35%
Non-rec'n lands
3% - 8%
36% - 56%
9% - 14%
57% - 100%
0
20
Miles
40
Sources: New York State Office of Cyber Security
and Critical Infrastructure Coordination, New York
State Civil & Public Land Boundaries, August 2003;
National Atlas of the United States (roads); US
Census of Population and Housing 1990 and 2000,
STF1 (1990) and SF1 (2000), 100% Housing
Unit counts
Meanwhile, back in the cities…

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Home ownership rate dropped to 45.9%
between 1990 and 2000
Housing vacancy rates rose to 11.5%
75% of city housing built before 1960
Income growth lags towns’ income growth
Renters pay too much for housing
City property tax bases fell in the 1990s
Cities’ child poverty (31%) is 3X towns’
City, village, inner suburban
residents pay higher taxes, 2000
Aggregate taxes paid as % of
aggregate house value, 2000
0.27% - 0.79%
1.71% - 2.06%
0.79% - 1.08%
2.06% - 2.48%
1.08% - 1.38%
2.49% - 3.89%
1.38% - 1.70%
5.45% - 6.15%
Upstate cities
²
0
25
50
75
100
Miles
What if tax rates were equalized?
Simulation results, Tax rate equalization, Genesee County
50.0
1990
2000 (estimate)
2000 (simulated)
Percent of residents
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
City
Villages
Towns
Syracuse
Map 1. Concentrated poverty intensifies in Upstate cities
Rochester
Buffalo-Niagara Falls Area
Lockport
Niagara Falls
North Tonawanda
Utica-Rome
Tonawanda
Rome
Buffalo
Binghamton area
Utica
Lackawanna
Tract poverty, 1990-2000
Capital District
Transitional high (<20% poverty 1990, >20% 2000)
Transitional low (>20% poverty 1990, <20% 2000)
Schenectady
Cohoes
Persistent high (>20% poverty 1990 and 2000)
Watervliet
Persistent low (<20% poverty 1990 and 2000)
Troy
Cities
Sources: U.S. Census of Population and Housing 1990 (STF3) and
2000 (SF3), adjusted to 2000 census-tract boundaries. Scales vary
on this map.
Albany
Rensselaer
The hand we’ve been dealt

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Economic restructuring, reduction in heavy
manufacturing
Slow population growth
Falling prices for farm products
An established endowment of sprawl-fueling
infrastructure
Hundreds of local governments
The way we play the hand we’ve
been dealt
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Identify, test, and carry out new state and federal
policies
Transform local and regional practices
Build cross-cutting coalitions to work for
change at every level on all issues
Policies, 1: Renew Upstate’s
Economy—Sustainably

Speed the transition to a high-road economy based on
“Eds and Meds”

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
Build regional competitiveness by cutting competition

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
Plan and spend strategically to encourage connections among
higher ed, health care, high-value manufacturing
Bring cities closer together with infrastructure investments
Require regional vision for economic development
Monitor and evaluate business subsidies to ensure net gains
Promote sustainable rural economic development


Protect resource uses from encroachment by new housing
Reduce environmental damage from ag, forestry, mining
Policies, 2: Fight sprawl
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Enhance regional planning throughout Upstate
Encourage development in cities, villages, and hamlets
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Reduce taxes for city owner-occupiers and businesses
Ban exclusionary zoning in suburbs with infrastructure
Clean up brownfields to accommodate new businesses
Facilitate annexation
Equalize or share property tax revenues, especially new base
Work for affordable home ownership in cities, villages
Stop subsidizing rural growth

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Don’t charge cities for rural services: sheriff, highways, etc.
Cut infrastructure subsidies for inappropriate rural growth
Changing practices:
Why wait for the state?

Economic development can improve now
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Industrial development agencies can do better cost-benefit
analysis, strategic planning
Buffalo-Niagara Enterprise, Greater Rochester, Syracuse
MDA can work together
Upstate higher-eds can work together
Planning can make growth patterns more sensible now
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Transportation planning organizations can stop widening
rural roads and contribute more to city infrastructure
Villages and towns can plan together
County legislatures can cut sprawl-inducing taxes, spending
Building coalitions: If the problems
are connected, so are the politics
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Community: Neighborhood revitalization agencies
(CDCs, cities, faith-based organizations) + open space
advocates + organized labor + mass transit advocates +
committed farmers + civil rights organizations
Business: Organizations from throughout Upstate +
Universities + Health care providers
Government: Elected officials in inner suburbs, big
cities facing related problems of tax base, infrastructure
burden; officials in Albany, Washington whose concern
should be New York State’s competitiveness