Transcript Wisconsin Nonfarm Wage and Salary Jobs

Wisconsin’s Unemployment Rates
Actual and Projected
8.9%
9.0%
8.3%
8.0%
7.5%
7.0%
6.2%
6.0%
5.6%
5.3%
5.3%
5.2%
5.0%
4.5%
4.3%
4.8% 4.7% 4.9%
5.1%
5.0%
4.7%
4.4%
4.3%
3.7% 3.6%
4.0%
5.0%
3.5%
3.3%
4.2%
3.4%
3.1%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
0.0%
Some Things You May Not Wish To
Know About Wisconsin
• Wisconsin is a low wage state.
• Wisconsin has low productivity per worker.
• Wisconsin has a low post secondary educational attainment
level.
• Wisconsin is growing slowly compared to U.S.
• Wisconsin is one of fastest aging states.
Wisconsin is a Low Wage State
• Our average wage is about $38,100 per job, per
year.
• We rank 32nd in wages per job.
• The national average is about $44,600.
• Minnesota ranks 14th, at $44,400, Illinois ranks 8th
at $47,700.
– In the late 1970s we had higher wages than Minnesota.
Wisconsin is a Low Productivity State
• Gross State Product (GSP) per job was $80,731 in
2006.
• National average GSP was $98,032.
• Connecticut with the highest was $141,144.
• Wisconsin ranked 42nd in productivity per job.
• If Wisconsin was at the national average, we would
increase our Gross State Product by $50 billion.
That’s $9,300 per person in the state!
Wisconsin’s Post-Secondary
Educational Level Is Not High
• We rank 31st in post secondary educational
attainment.
• We rank 30th in baccalaureate level degrees.
• We rank 36th in masters or higher attainment.
• We rank 9th in associate’s degrees.
• We rank 11th in students majoring in science and
engineering per population. 44th in science and
engineering majors in work force.
Wisconsin is a Slow Growing State
• We rank 30th in growth.
• Natural growth is particularly slow, in migration
growth is not fast.
• Our growth is about 60 percent as fast as the United
States, at large.
• Our present growth is likely to slow.
Wisconsin is Aging Rapidly
• The state’s baby-boom cohort is unusually large.
• Almost 31 percent of Wisconsin’s population are
baby-boomers, decreasing, but slowly.
• Nationally, about 27 percent of population are
baby-boomers, but decreasing rapidly.
The Demand Side
Of the Labor Equation
• Three factors affecting the demand for workers:
1. The number of jobs has continued to grow, until
now;
2. The demand for replacement workers is
expanding;
3. The aging population needs more and more
services.
Wisconsin Nonfarm Wage and
Salary Jobs Until Now Have
Continued to Grow
3,500,000
Nonfarm Jobs
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
-
Wisconsin Nonfarm Wage & Salary
Jobs
• Although we have been adding an average of
36,000 jobs per year, that growth will stop for the
next few years. There will likely be a loss in total
jobs in 2009 and again in 2010.
• There will be a few industries that will not be hit as
hard as others, particularly health care.
• “Smart companies” will find ways to hold on to
“smart workers”.
• Watch the economic recovery plans!
Wisconsin Residents
Turning 65 Years Old
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Wisconsin Residents
Turning 65 Years Old
• We don’t know how the wealth effect will play out
in retirement plans.
• Workers have been retiring earlier than 65, but
plans will change somewhat.
• Older workers who lose their jobs may not return to
the job market, but older workers who don’t lose
their jobs will likely stay on longer.
Demand Is Strongest
Where Supply Is Weakest
1. Much of the older population lives in more remote
areas.
2. Much of the tourist industry is in remote areas.
3. Manufacturing in Wisconsin tends to be in rural
areas.
The Supply Side
Of the Labor Equation
Five Factors Affecting Supply of Workers:
1.
The number of entry level workers is diminishing;
2.
There will be little increase from increased female
participation;
3.
There is a sizeable commuting net loss;
4.
The brain drain is real;
5.
Wisconsin is low in net gain from migration.
Wisconsin Births
1940 to Present
97,200
82,300
77,200
72,500
72,300
69,289
55,000
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
United States Births
1940 to Present
4,257,850
4,179,000
3,731,386
3,632,000
4,058,814
3,612,258
2006
2003
2000
1997
1994
1991
1988
1985
1982
1979
1976
1973
1970
1967
1964
1961
1958
1955
1952
1949
1946
1943
1940
2,559,000
Female Labor Force Participation
• Wisconsin is at the top or very nearly at the top of
states per female labor force participation rates.
• Approximately 72% of females 16 years old and
older participate in the labor force in Wisconsin.
• Approximately 65% of females 16 years old and
older participate in the labor force in U.S.
Wisconsin has a strongly negative
state-to-state commuting ratio
• Approximately 120,000 workers along Wisconsin
borders cross state lines to work.
• 100,000 or those workers live in Wisconsin and leave
the state to work. About 20,000 live in neighboring
states and come into Wisconsin for work.
• Wisconsin borders Illinois, Iowa, Michigan and
Minnesota. The ratio is positive only for Iowa.
The Legendary Brain Drain is Real
Indiana Fiscal Policy Institute
Net Migration
122.4%
112.0%
103.1%
99.4%
98.2%
85.9%
75.9%
67.3%
Indiana
Illinois
Michigan
Ohio
Wisconsin
Kentucky
North Carolina
U. S. Average
The Legendary Brain Drain is Real
Indiana Fiscal Policy Institute
Retention
81.6%
80.2%
79.6%
74.8%
69.1%
61.6%
57.8%
Indiana
71.3%
Illinois
Michigan
Ohio
Wisconsin
Kentucky
North Carolina
U. S. Average
The Legendary Brain Drain is Real
Minneapolis Federal Reserve
States
1989
College
Graduates
1999
College
Graduates
Ad’l College
Graduates
1989 to 1999
Additional
Graduates
From State
Gain/Loss
Minnesota
577,920
953,920
376,000
234,945
141,055
Montana
106,977
134,160
27,183
42,976
(15,793)
North Dakota
89,244
89,200
(44)
45,072
(45,116)
South Dakota
79,672
110,848
31,176
40,669
(9,493)
571,725
790,600
218,875
269,647
(50,772)
1,425,538
2,078,728
653,190
633,309
19,881
Wisconsin
Minn Fed Res
District
MSAs That Attract College Graduates
City
City
1. Atlanta
9. San Diego
2. Denver
10.Houston
3. San Francisco
11.Chicago
4. Seattle
12. Los Angeles
5. Dallas
13.Tampa
6. Phoenix
14.Miami
7. Minneapolis
15. New York
8. Washington, D.C.
16.Boston
Migration Into Wisconsin Has Lagged
• Approximately 12 percent of United States resident
population is foreign-born. Highest level since
1920s.
• Approximately 4.2 percent of Wisconsin resident
population is foreign-born.
• Some in migration from neighboring states, i.e.
Illinois and Minnesota. (Kenosha and Walworth,
and St. Croix and Pierce counties)
A Word of Caution
• The economy is transitioning from traditional to
new.
• Recessions speed transitions
• Economies will continue to be transformed!
• It is a major mistake when economic
development officials ignore or dismiss the
structural changes that are being generated by
the New Economy.
What is the New Economy?
• The New Economy is knowledge driven.
• The New Economy is global.
• The New Economy is entrepreneurial.
• The New Economy is rooted in information
technology.
• The New Economy is defined by innovation.
• The New Economy is volatile.
What is Knowledge Activity?
• The intangible ability to use existing facts and
understandings to generate new ideas.
• Knowledge is embedded in the education, experience,
and ingenuity of the wielder of knowledge.
• Knowledge is the ability to use what you have learned.
• Knowledge is the value-added component of the
market.
New and Old Economies
Issue
Old
New
Markets
Stable
Dynamic
Scope of competition
National
Global
Organizational form
Hierarchical
Networked
Production system
Mass production
Flexible production
Key factor of production
Capital/labor
Innovation/ideas
Key technology driver
Mechanization
Digitization
Competitive advantage
Economies of scale
Innovation/quality
Relations between firms
Go it alone
Collaborative
Skills
Job-specific
Broad and changing
Workforce
Organization Man
“Intrapreneur”
Nature of employment
Secure
Risky
State New Economy
Index
Kauffman Foundation
Knowledge, Productivity, & Income
• Although education is the great predictor of wages
and income, the real cause is productivity.
• Knowledge, by enabling innovation and creativity,
provides the mystic value-added to the product or
service. Knowledge supercharges goods and services.
• Find states with high educational attainment and
you’ll usually find high productivity and high wages.
Wages, Education, Knowledge
Knowledge Rich Economies
Wage Rich Economies
Education Rich States
Alaska
California
California
California
Colorado
Colorado
Colorado
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Delaware
Delaware
District of Columbia
District of Columbia
Illinois
Illinois
District of Columbia
Kansas
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New Hampshire
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New York
New York
New York
Rhode Island
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Washington
Washington
Washington
Productivity Comparisons
• The top 12 states averaged $118,530 in GSP per job in
2006.
• The bottom 20 states averaged $80,254. That’s a
difference of $38,276 per job!
• Had the bottom 20 states matched the national
average, they would have generated an additional
$17,777 per job.
• That’s $29.4 billion per state!
MSAs That Attract College Graduates
City
City
Atlanta
San Diego
Denver
Houston
San Francisco
Chicago
Seattle
Los Angeles
Dallas
Tampa
Phoenix
Miami
Minneapolis
New York
Washington, D.C.
Boston
Super Metros
Metro
Area
2007
Population
Percent Growth
Las Vegas, NV
1,836,333
31.8%
Raleigh, NC
1,047,629
30.2%
Phoenix, AZ
4,179,427
27.5%
Austin, TX
1,598,161
26.3%
Riverside, CA
4,081,371
24.5%
Atlanta, GA
5,278,904
23.3%
Charlotte, NC
1,651,568
23.2%
Orlando, FL
2,032,496
22.7%
Houston, TX
5,628,101
18.7%
Dallas, TX
6,145,037
18.2%
Mid-size Dynamic Metros
Metro
Area
2007
Population
Percent Change
Greeley, CO
243,750
33.2%
Cape Coral, FL
590,564
33.0%
Provo, UT
493,306
29.8%
Myrtle Beach, SC
249,925
22.1%
Boise City, ID
587,689
25.3%
Ocala, FL
324,857
24.8%
Port Lucie, FL
400,121
24.8%
Fayetteville, AK
435,714
24.6%
Naples, FL
315,839
24.3%
McAllen, TX
710,514
23.9%
Wilmington, NC
339,511
23.1%
Laredo, TX
233,152
19.8%
Bakersfield, CA
790,710
19.2%
Smaller Dynamic Metros
Metro
Area
Palm Coast, FL
2007 Population
Percent Change
88,397
74.8%
St. George, UT
133,791
46.6%
Bend, OR
154,028
32.1%
Gainesville, GA
180,715
27.9%
Prescott, AZ
212,635
25.9%
Lake Havasu City, AZ
194,944
24.8%
Coeur d’Alene, ID
134,442
22.7%
Sioux Falls, SD
227,171
20.6%
A Transition,
Economic to Demographic
• A global economy, where markets transcend and
ignore national borders, diminishes and erodes the
power and influence of the nation state.
• Nations and states have two choices;
1. A broad distribution of education and wealth, or
2. A broad distribution of ignorance and poverty.
• Minority populations, which are not wholly
participating in the New Economy, will cost states
somewhere down the line.
The “New Economy”
Characterized by:
• Knowledge activity;
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
•
•
•
•
Innovative
Creative
Adaptive
Collaborative
Technology based
Global markets;
Instant communication;
Volatility;
Lessened government influence.