Transcript Security Scenarios And The Global Economy

NS3040
Fall Term 2014
US/WTO Doha Round
U.S. and the Doha Round
• Jeffrey Schott, “What Should the United States Do About
Doha?” Peterson Institute for International Economics
• Doha round remains stalled
• Major nations have not revised their positions enough to
propel new negotiations on agriculture, manufactures
and services
• Little chance for signing in near future
• Schott wants to clarify policy options and then make a
recommendation over course of action
• He wants this to be consistent with:
• near-term political constraints and
• the objective of advancing world trade and economic
development
2
Doha Round: U.S. Options I
• Options fall in three broad categories:
• First option – declare victory and sign the deal “on the
table”
• Idea is to avoid at all costs stigma of a failed round – the
first one ever
• Deal endorses formula for tariff cuts plus reductions in
agricultural subsidies
• Problems:
• Prospective gains are too small and skewed towards too
few countries
• Gains for the U.S.
• $7.6 billion in increased exports
• $14.3 billion in increased imports.
• GDP rises by$9.3 billion
3
Doha Round: U.S. Options II
• Problem – overall gains relatively small
• For some producers loss of protection or subsidy would
hurt – would strongly lobby Congress against signing.
• China the big winner at expense of most other trading
nations
• Second option -- pull the plug. Declare the round a bust
and go home.
• Recognizes the lack of political will and leadership and
considers further efforts a waste of time
• Problem – Doha’s failure might make it very difficult to
begin another round in the future
• Might also take a toll on the WTO dispute settlement
process -- countries might see this as de-facto rule
setting.
4
Doha Round: U.S. Options III
• Third Option – recognizes that talks cannot conclude in current
environment and that Doha round needs a “time-out.”
• Avoids blame for killing the round while recognizing that in
current political climate, an agreement is unlikely
• Main problem – talks might go into hibernation and never wake
up.
• Need to make it clear what needs to be done and the benefits
associated with an agreement.
• Schott feels the U.S. needs to keep open the multilateral option
while accelerating bilateral and regional initiatives
• The former requires making a down payment (in the form of
provisional implementation of specific reforms) on a future
Doha package
• Specifically U.S. and other major trading nations need to make
a down payment on a future package of WTO accords that is
more balanced and ambitious than what is currently on the
table
5
• Provides list of specifics.