Transcript Slide 1
Ocean & Weather Changes Impacting Business and Infrastructure "Energy and alternative energies in Baja California" Gabriela Muñoz (COLEF) Margarito Quintero (UABC) March 4, 2011 San Diego, CA Reflection Weather changes are not limited to impacts on ecosystems and humans, they are also linked to financial transactions that affect GDP directly, for example changes in the supply and pricing of agricultural products. By the other hand, impacts are equally associated with net cost of covering damages due to the occurrence of extreme meteorological events, for example carbon social cost (CSC) at 2005, were estimated to be 43 US$ per tonne of carbon (12 US$ per tonne of CO2). Outline • Current energy infrastructure • A carbon based fuel mix… • Environmental considerations • Are we ready? Not? Is there a Plan B? • Renewables as an option • Observations and recommendations Current energy infrastructure: the CA/BC case The California – Baja California border region has become a focal point of energy infrastructure development in the aftermath of deregulation in U.S. power markets and the liberalization of the energy supply in Mexico. Baja California is viewed by international power and liquefied natural gas (LNG) proponents as an excellent site for projects destined to serve the huge California market, but also the growing market in Baja California. Fuel mix in the border region The USA GDP has been around 20 times larger than Mexico’s. Both countries have steady growth in per capita Environmental considerations •Vulnerability The energyofthat underpinned border region growth is the has energy sector in Northern Mexico Vulnerability in current Southern U.S.energy mix consisting of oil (36%), similar to the global • natural the production andcoal energy demand will(6%), require structural gas (24%), (28%), nuclear (6%) and Warmer climate will increase energy demandhydro for building modifications, given that a biomass, major part of their operations are renewable energy such solar (about cooling; however, suchas demand maywind faceand problems during the vulnerable themain face of extreme hydro-meteorological 2%). This as is,ina the of energy are clearly in for the summer result ofsources a changing hydrologic regime; events, maximal and minimal temperatures, as well as wind form of carbon-based fuels. example, it is expected that the Colorado River hydropower intensity (INE, 2006) yields will likely decrease significantly (medium confidence) (Christensen et al., 2004). Are we ready? Not? Is there a Plan B? Are we ready? Not? Is there a Plan B? Reservas en Mexico (SENER, 2009) Seguridad energética Reservas en Mexico (SENER, 2009) Costos de combustible usado para generar electricidad 200 USD/MWh 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Tipos de combustible (combustoleo importado) (gas natural TS) (combustoleo nacional) (gas natural CC) (vapor geotermico) The renewable option Renewable sources of energy in the border region • Solar Power. The border region has one the best potential for • Wind border has wind classified solarpower. power The in the world,region in particular theresources Baja from good to excellent, particularly in Baja regions California and California/California and Sonora/Arizona with anthe Tamaulipas/Texas region.of 5 kWh/m2 average solar insolation The renewable option Renewable sources of energy in the border region • Geothermal power. The border region has plenty and high • temperature Hydropowerresources (T < 200 º C). Mexico stands third place worldwide in geothermal energy generation, with a installed in Mexicali, Bajaworking California. • considerable Biomass (potential in capacity Tijuana and Cd. Juarez, in Monterrey) The renewable option Prospective scenario of renewable sources by 2030 in Mexico Conclusions • Need of an energy sector addressing economic, environmental and social factors in the border region • Need of the establishment of a Strategic Transborder Environmental Assessment (STEA) • Need of a gradual implementation of renewables addressing institutional, legal, financial and technical obstacles; keeping in mind that not because they are renewable they do not cause pollution Aim: Energy that contributes to a sustainable border region Questions?