Transcript Energy Challenges for Asia

Energy Issues and
Energy Cooperation
In Russia, India and
China
Pradeep K Dadhich PhD
Presented at
Russia-India-china (RIC), 4th Annual International
Conference, New Delhi
Venue: Claridges Hotel, New Delhi
Date: 21 November 2008
Contents
Trends of energy consumption in India
 Russian Energy Sector
 Energy challenges in Asia
 Areas for cooperation

Trends in India’s
Energy consumption
and Challenges
Total Primary Commercial Energy
Requirement
Total primary commercial energy
increases 7.5 times 2001 to 2031(285
mtoe to 2123 mtoe) (CAGR: 6.9%)
Energy use in BAU
2500
2000
Solar +w ind
Nuclear
(mtoe)
1500
Hydro (large +small)
Natural Gas
1000
Oil
 Share of traditional fuels to total
primary energy consumption decreases
by 35% to 4% (in year 2001 to 2031)
Coal
Coal and Oil remains the dominant
fuels
500
0
2001 2006
2011 2016 2021
Year
2026 2031
Share of Coal: 55% in 2031
Share of Oil: 36% in 2031
Share of hydro in total commercial supply is only 2% in 2031
Electricity Generation Capacity
Total installed capacity increases by
6.34 times (CGAR: 6.3%)
Generation Capacity
900
795
800
700
158
GW
600
137
441
500
400
116
300
216
200
125
100
0
118
27
14
74
69
31
100
175
2001
2011
2021
466
2031
Year
Coal
Natural Gas
Hydro
Renew able
Diesel
Total
Coal based capacity will remain
dominant (59% in 2031) followed by
hydro (20%)
Nuclear
Decentralized capacity will
contribute 19% of the total generation
capacity by 2031
 Total installed capacity in 2031:
795 GW (Draft Integrated Energy
Policy: 778 GW, Ministry of Power:
962 GW)
Reference Scenario:
India’s Investment in
Energy Infrastructure,
2006-2030
Port
Mining
Distribution
Transmission
Power generation
Coal
5%
Electricity
76%
$1 250 billion
Oil
14%
Gas
5%
Refining
Upstream
Transmission
and distribution
LNG
Upstream
Three-quarters of total energy-related investment needs to 2030
are for power infrastructure
Energy Security: High Import
Dependency
Time trend of Import dependency of fossil fuels
2500
90%
Fuel Import in 2031
80%
Coal import: 1438 MT
80%
2000
63%
mtoe
1500
2123
42%
1000
1688
500
~4 times of consumption in 2001
60%
Import dependency: 78%
50%
40%
1046
27%
75 285
70%
222
527
30%
660
0
20%
2001
Import
2011
2021
2031
Oil import: 680 MT
Import dependency: 93%
Gas import: 93 BCM
Import dependency: 67%
Year
Consumption
Import Dependency
Maximum indigenous production levels for all fuels is achieved by the year
2016
Russian Energy Sector
The 10 countries with largest
oil reserves in the world
The 10 countries with
largest Gas reserves in the
world
Russian GDP Growth and
international oil prices
Rosstat & Bloomberg
Russian Oil Export
Destinations
Russian Coal reserves

Russia has the second largest coal
reserves in the world 173 bn tons
– Next to USA 274 bn tons

Current Production levels 321 mn tons
– Local consumption is 261 mn tons
– Export 60 mn tons
Energy Access a Big
Challenge in Asia
Population without
electricity, 2005
To achieve the Millenium development Goals, the number of people
without access to electricity would need to fall to under a billion by 2015
Share of Traditional Biomass
in HH Consumption
In many developing countries, traditional biomass accounts for over
90% of household energy use
Asian Energy
Consumption
Increasing Rapidly
Macroeconomic
Assumptions
Per-Capita GDP
OECD
Middle East
Africa
Latin America
Rest of developing Asia
India
Incomes continue to
grow fastest in China
Transition economies
China
-2%
0%
2015-2030
2%
4%
6%
average annual growth rate
2004-2015
8%
10%
1990-2004
Incomes in the OECD are still four times higher than in rest of the
world in 2030
Primary Energy
Consumption
Per Capita Commercial
Energy Consumption Across
SAARC Region
1800
World average
1688 kgoe
1600
1400
kgoe
1200
1000
759
800
600
351
16
200
89
44
Nepal
Maldives
India
Bhutan
Bangladesh
Afghanistan
0
Sources: Regional Energy Security for South Asia; Sankar TL, Raza HA, Barkat A, Wijayatunga P, Acharya M,
Raina DN, SARI/Energy Program (2006) and Integrated Energy Policy, Planning Commission, August 2006
Pakistan
200
355
243
Sri Lanka
400
Vehicle Ownership, 2004
900
USA
vehicles per 1,000 people
800
700
Italy
600
Germany
France
Canada
500
Japan
UK
400
300
Malaysia
Korea
200
Mexico
Brazil
Thailand
100
Indonesia
China
0
India
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
GDP per capita (dollars)
The potential for increased vehicle ownership in emerging
markets, in particular China and India, is huge
© OECD/IEA (2006)
Conclusions From
Incremental Energy
Consumption Need
Correction
Reference Scenario:
Primary Energy Demand
10 000
Mtoe
8 000
Developing countries become the
biggest energy consumers within
a decade
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
1980
OECD
1990
2000
2010
Developing countries
2020
2030
Transition economies
World oil demand grows by just over half between 2004 and 2030,
with 70% of the increase coming from developing countries
Reference Scenario:
Share in the Global Energy Demand
Growth, 2004-2030
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Coal demand
China and India
Oil demand
OECD
Power Generation
Capacity
Rest of the world
China and India account for a significant part of the growth in the global
fuel demand and power generation capacity
Reference Scenario:
World Electricity Demand
by Region
Demand
triples in
developing
countries
14 000
12 000
TWh
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
2004
OECD
2015
Developing countries
2030
Transition economies
World electricity demand doubles between 2004 and 2030
Reference Scenario:
World Incremental
Electricity Generation
4 500
4 000
3 500
3 000
TWh
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
- 500
2004-2015
Oil
Nuclear
2015-2030
Other renewables
Hydro
Gas
Coal
Most of the additional demand for electricity is expected to be met by
coal, which remains the world’s largest source of electricity to 2030
Incremental Coal-fired
Electricity
Generation by Region
6% 3%
14%
7 785 TWh
7%
15%
55%
China
India
Rest of developing Asia
OECD North America
Rest of OECD
Other countries
Over three-quarters of the increase in coal-fired generation is in
developing Asia, based on ample coal reserves
Implications for CO2
Emissions
50
billion tonnes
40
30
Increase of
14.3 Gt (55%)
20
10
0
1990
2004
Coal
2010
Oil
2015
2030
Gas
Half of the projected increase in emissions comes from new power
stations, mainly using coal & mainly located in China & India
Incremental Oil Demand,
2004-2030
25
20
mb/d
15
10
5
0
-5
Power generation
OECD
Developing Asia
Industry
Transport
Other
Transition economies
Rest of developing countries
Most of the increase in oil demand comes from developing countries,
where economic growth – the main driver of oil demand – is most rapid